Close Brothers Share Discussion Threads

[blueclyde] 23/2/2024 13:17

After Lloyds results yesterday who are the biggest exposed to this we know a hell of a lot more what ball park this is in.

[velocytongo] 23/2/2024 13:14

Let’s focus on what we know. Not very much at all !

[blueclyde] 23/2/2024 12:57

Great post and exactly what is probably going to pan out here. It is going to the commission. The market is pricing as if every loan is going to be repaid back in full when simply that is not the case. I expect that any day Close Brothers will define the total commission figure. At that point I would expect the market to open up back at around £9 a share. For me the current price is irrelevant as there will be a huge instant jump when the figure is defined and that could drop any morning.

[tsmith2] 23/2/2024 09:38

There was 100k plus bought for 348p or so earlier which was about 5p above the ask

[stoopid] 23/2/2024 08:35

Well said, I noticed this yesterday and blocked the profile.

[blueclyde] 23/2/2024 08:17

The fact you are copying this nonsense under a different username onto the LSE board word for word tells me all I need to know.

[karv1] 23/2/2024 07:45

A right issue is not impossible but we can only go with what we know and Lloyds are the only ones with full access to all the information they hold. So we can only compare against this and clearly they are not worried.
All this v the possible benefits of 300% share price rise with 20% future dividend. I made my choice

[velocytongo] 23/2/2024 07:22

Not sure CBG will go bust but valuation tells you a rights issue is in the price.

[karv1] 23/2/2024 06:23

You do know they have in total 1.5 billion in assets not counting 2024 profits. They not going to go bust that is total rubbish,if your shorting just be honest with people.

[popit] 23/2/2024 04:45

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have estimated the car financing problems, which have echoes of the payment protection insurance scandal, could cost Lloyds £2.5bn, more than any of its rivals.

So the Lloyds liability may be more than 5x their estimate of £450 million and obviously CBG do not have any clue at present what their final liability will be.

If it is anywhere near the worst estimates of £1 billion then it could easily lead to receivership and liquidation for CBG

[cyberbub] 23/2/2024 00:42

Popit I think any competent senior team of accountants and legal experts should be able to give a reasonable range of estimates, even if it's fairly wide at the moment. I would expect at least a stab at it in the results in 4 weeks' time, investors will expect to see something.Meanwhile the rebound seems strong so far touch wood. For chartists the RSI is absolutely rock bottom so there's still plenty of scope for it to keep rising for some time yet (albeit unlikely in a straight line). I would not be at all surprised to see 450p by the time of the results...GLA no advice etc

[blueclyde] 22/2/2024 22:32

Also after the bond market disaster under Truss I doubt the FCA will want to kick off another banking meltdown whilst the post Brexit UK market is in the absolute gutter when the economy needs the banks to be strong and lend. I expect clarity will need to be given soon.

[blueclyde] 22/2/2024 22:27

I think the lawyers employed by Lloyds Bank know more than you and will be confident in defending in the position in court if need be. This company is throwing off cash so unlikely to be a big issue. Today was a big day in terms of Lloyds laying out their position as the one of the biggest exposed to this.

[popit] 22/2/2024 21:12

Giving an estimate is not really going to change anything for CBG or Lloyds as nobody really has any clue at present what the final liability is going to be

For CBG the figure is somewhere between zero and £1 billion, and so what good will it do for them to give a best estimate when the higher figure could mean a highly dilutive rights issue for CBG at best, and receivership and liquidation at worst ?

[blueclyde] 22/2/2024 19:40

The thing is Close Brothers may not believe they are on the hook for anything. Lloyds have given their worst case number which will be way bigger than anything Close Brothers will be exposed to. What Close Brothers probably did not expect is the share price to be absolutely clobbered the way it is but that is more how chronic the UK markets have become particularly for the FTSE 250 and below. I imagine they will now give a worst case figure just to perhaps show how crazy the current discount is. I can not see the FCA wanting to kick start another banking crisis in the UK so I am sure they are being consulted to what exactly the scope of this is.

[suetballs] 22/2/2024 19:09

If lloyds can produce a figure why couldn't cbg - annoying and might have prevented such an share price fall.
However I suppose someone has to go first and it wasn't going to be little old cbg.
Suet

[blueclyde] 22/2/2024 18:47

Lloyds Bank up 6% on the day. The webcast confirms that their view of fixing it and redress is £450 million if any. I guess if Close Brothers put an RNS out with their best estimate you could be in a situation where the share price opens up 100% straight away as this is currently pricing in oblivion. I am guessing they will give a figure with their results but maybe they awaited what Lloyds had to say so an RNS could drop at any time.

[babbler] 22/2/2024 16:34

Nice day...:)This and CABP Excellent right now...

[brucie5] 22/2/2024 16:32

From last Friday.

[cyberbub] 22/2/2024 14:14

Let's see if the previous resistance at 354p can be taken out this time? Touch wood.

[cyberbub] 22/2/2024 14:11

Petersinthemarket, I think the slow decline from 1500p was largely due to the Novatis issue, perhaps investors again thought that it was bigger than it turned out to be. Looking forward past this latest car finance issue, ultimately even if the divi is cut from 67p to 50p, anyone buying now is still on a yield of 15%!...

[cyberbub] 22/2/2024 13:58

Don't ponder too long ;-)

[petersinthemarket] 22/2/2024 13:53

The LT chart shows that CBG had already fallen from 1200p to 800p before this (unconnected) bombshell arrived, so there must already have been doubts about the business. However, does look well overcooked now and I'm still pondering whether to add at this level.

[tsmith2] 22/2/2024 13:25

available in full anywhere?