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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Brothers Group Plc | CBG | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | 1.67% | 218.60 | 08:46:35 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 210.00 | 210.00 | 218.60 | 215.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| NONEQUITY INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS |
| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Dividend Amount | Ex Date | Record Date | Payment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2023 | Final | GBP | 0.45 | 19/10/2023 | 20/10/2023 | 24/11/2023 |
| 14/03/2023 | Interim | GBP | 0.225 | 23/03/2023 | 24/03/2023 | 26/04/2023 |
| 27/09/2022 | Final | GBP | 0.44 | 13/10/2022 | 14/10/2022 | 22/11/2022 |
| 15/03/2022 | Interim | GBP | 0.22 | 24/03/2022 | 25/03/2022 | 27/04/2022 |
| 28/09/2021 | Final | GBP | 0.42 | 14/10/2021 | 15/10/2021 | 23/11/2021 |
| 16/03/2021 | Interim | GBP | 0.18 | 25/03/2021 | 26/03/2021 | 28/04/2021 |
| 22/09/2020 | Final | GBP | 0.4 | 15/10/2020 | 16/10/2020 | 24/11/2020 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 19/11/2024 16:44 by karv1 CbG V vanq both have great risk. Both have over 400k of motor customers/ CBG with probably a lot more.CBG could be hit by the FCA review and commissions but at least it actually makes money worst case might not have enough money, value 300m could drop more. but people could make huge returns. Vanq is a loss making company even in the last quarter with the 60 million cost saving for this year. Value 100m could go down more but the 100m value will pull a lot gamblers in. If they can turn it around there could be good returns. Depending on the commission situation, there interest is sky high so I bet they pay very high commission to dealers/broker to get those customers on sky high interest. Both CBG/VANQ hold a few hundred million in intangible assets/worthless but CBG actually hold more real money and at least it has banked 400m. I have been in both currently in neither. I am watching both though. |
Posted at 08/11/2024 22:51 by pj84 Well if you are looking for a more positive post.I will start by saying the share price is likely to remain depressed until there is anymore clarity on the eventual outcome from the Hopcroft case. Having said that the latest adjusted eps was 76p share and that would normally support an undemanding of market cap of about £8 (a PE of just over 10) which is roughly where the share price was before the main slide started with the motor finance review. Not too long before that it was even higher at around £10/share. The market cap with a share price of £8 was around £1.2 bn and it has dropped £900m since then to a current market cap of just over £300m. RBC's previous worst case scenario (not their base case scenario) was £420m and if the Hopcroft judgement widens the exposure their new worst case scenario is £640m. So arguably a drop of £900m already in the market cap more than reflects that worst case scenario. CBG has suspended the dividend to bolster it's capital and at the moment it is fairly certain that will continue next year and until this whole situation is both clarified and dealt with. Whatever the outcome it is unlikely it will all be dealt with in a single one off write off and is likely to remain uncertain for some time which should allow CBG more time to continue to bolster its capital position. If, however, there is a clear need to write of £640m next year and that a draws a line under the issue then CBG might need to raise capital but once it is dealt with what would the new share price be once the adjusted eps is again around 76p without any further write offs? The above is based on the current worse case scenario but whilst it looks unlikely what would the situation look like if any of the appeals are successful. As I say the share price is likely to remain depressed for the time being but I don't subscribe to the view that this is curtains for CBG. |
Posted at 08/11/2024 10:01 by stoopid Yeah, gotta say a 680m hit wouldn't be good. That might well require a large capital raising/rights issue to cover so that the required regulatory Teir One capital requirements are not breached. Probably no dividend for years.This would be to cover the costs, fines and associated quantum for any FCA judgement. CBG are already in the process of securitising their car finance loan book to provide extra capital on top of the 400m already set aside to cover any judgement. This will reduce profitability but provide more liquidity and available cash to cover any judgement.I still don't think CBG will go under and no one, press or analysts, have suggested it but with the associated risks, hit to profitability and lack of dividend for the foreseeable future no one will want to invest and share price will go nowhere. |
Posted at 05/11/2024 22:53 by tsmith2 the whole of the article would be more honest RBC Capital Markets cut its price target on shares of Close Brothers to 425p from 435p and added a "speculative risk" qualifier to its rating as it assessed the impact of premium finance.The bank said that if the Supreme Court upholds the Hopcraft judgement applying a broad interpretation, motor finance litigation could spread to other products like premium finance."There is an outstanding question following last month's Court of Appeal judgement: does the ruling have wider implications outside motor finance? One possible interpretation is that the decision is broad enough to encompass any broker commission in any finance arrangement in which the borrower did not provide informed consent to the commission being paid," RBC said."Our focus until now has been on motor; today we broaden our attention to premium finance."It noted that Close Brothers is the only bank in its coverage that has material exposure here - around 10% of the loan book, 50% retail, and 80:20 motor:home, respectively.RBC said that its initial estimate of the potential liability for CBG - in the event of a bad outcome in respect of premium finance - is around £250m, of which £100m has been included in its model.The bank said total commission provisions now in its model are £420m, £320m of which are for motor and £100m for premium finance."Whilst CBG's CET1 can absorb this (CET1 trough 11.6%), assuming that the bank unwinds its motor/premium loan books and doesn't pay a dividend in FY25-26, our downside scenarios of circa £640m (motor £390m; premium £250m) suggest there could be a bleaker path," it said.RBC reiterated its 'outperform' rating on the shares but now includes a "speculative risk" qualifier to account for increased earnings unpredictability. |
Posted at 27/10/2024 21:53 by stoopid Whether you agree or not, CBG is nothing like Amigo. Not even the same circumstances.It may go under like Amigo, yes that's true.but unlikely. Amigo was a sub prime lender who went bankrupt after being unable to pay the compensation ordered by the FCA due to totally improper lending practices to people who could never afford the loans.CBG and FCA is an argument over DCA (Discretionary Commission Arangements) and CBG have, or will have, 400m+ in cash to cover any fines and compensation. Big problem is that no one knows what CBGs liabilities will be. £400m has been mooted, might well be more.As has already been pointed out. This is now a total mess with no dividends for the foreseeable future and investors will stay well clear because of the uncertainty and possibility of disaster. CBGs future is all dependent on the following 3 things;1 The Supreme Court and it's view of the appeal courts decision.2 Barclays Judicial Review of FCA investigation3 The FCA and their decision on quantum, any fines and requisite compensation. Pays your money, takes your chances. |
Posted at 25/10/2024 14:45 by hamhamham1 Too many financial unknowns IMO.How much will this lastest ruling affect CBG? How much will existing ongoing actions cost CBG? What other family jewels will need to be sold? Does CBG have enough dosh to cover all upcoming obligations, if not how will it rasie the money? What will the loan market look like post all thse court rulings? Tricky one to call, could be bargain of the century or could be a money trap. I guess we will see what unfolds in the upcoming months, the Sunday papers will certainly have something to say about it me thinks? It's all the uncertainty that kills the market. Just get it sorted!!!! |
Posted at 25/10/2024 13:47 by stoopid So, currently, CBG is undervalued by any metric, but this ruling, as it stands, will materially impact them. To what degree is anyone's guess, but in the RNS release, CBG have already said that it will result in "significant liabilities" for the group. This is bad. Could mean anything from bankruptcy to a large rights issue to anything or nothing.It will be taken to the Supreme Court where any decision will be final. LLOY down 5% today as well because of this. There is certain to be something come out of the Supreme Court because the appeal courts decision currently affects all case law relating to cases like this and they could well throw this out. It also retrospectively causes banks and credit brokers to have a fiducary duty of care to the customer, which they never dis before.There is no doubt about it that this appeal court ruling could be hugely impactful on CBG. They are suspending further motor loans to change the terms and conditions in their current paperwork. They are setting aside approx 200m - 400m, question now definitely is, will it be enough. So, it's now a waiting game, to see what the supreme court say, to see what the FCA come out with and also see what happens with Barclays current court case against the FCA.CBG is a well risky investment now. Pays your money, takes your chances.I'm still in atm but wavering. |
Posted at 10/10/2024 20:48 by popit Your forecasts have no connection to the general consensus of analysts and brokersMarket Screener has an average analyst consensus eps for CBG of 80p for 2026 and 90p for 2027 And an average analyst consensus dividend for CBG of 30p for 2026 and 45p for 2027 So CBG has an average forecast PE from analysts of only 4 And an average forecast dividend yield of over 12% I think most investors here will be more likely to follow the consensus of various analysts and brokers rather than your own forecast According to all of these valuation measures : 70% discount to a NAV of £11 forecast earnings per share of 90p and a PE of only 4 forecast dividend yield of over 12% CBG shares are extremely undervalued |
Posted at 06/10/2024 12:06 by stoopid Karv, I'm with you, I reckon maybe 500m at worst, between 150m and 400m is market/broker consensus. At the end of the day, the FCA doesn't want to bankrupt anyone. Just get a free payout for idiots that took out car loans at exorbitant APRs. Even with 400m write off, CBG are worth double the current share price.If they do rebase the divi, even half of the most recent divi is 30p+ per share, so, not too shabby, a yield of about 7%/8%For me, this is still an 800+ share, though it may take 12/24 months to get back there depending on the FCA findings. And people are forgetting that I believe it was Royal London Asset management that bought approx 8 million shares or 5.3% of CBG on the 19/02/2024.So, i would have more trust in their team to have run the slide rule over this than residents of this board posting of catastrophic losses. Saying that, there is a chance it could be worse than expected for CBG, the findings could be terrible and catastrophic for the share price, requiring a deep rights issue to save them. As I said before, Pays your money, Takes your chances.... |
Posted at 21/9/2024 02:00 by popit chrisRBC is by far the most pessimistic broker about the possible motor liability for CBG and they have a Target Price for CBG shares of £6.20 So the upside for CBG shares is significant even according to the most pessimistic RBC forecast of a total liability of £350 million Most other brokers and analysts have a total liability for CBG of somewhere between £100 million and £200 million and CBG have already set aside far more than this by strengthening their capital by over £400 million Remember the dividend that was not paid for 2024 saved £100 million for CBG and if CBG do the same again for 2025 then the £200 million saved can be expected to cover almost every liability that has been forecast by analysts The shares have also already fallen by over £600 million since the FCA news and so many would say that the CBG share price has already fallen by about twice the most pessimistic forecast liability of £350 million from RBC The early share price reaction to the good results on Thursday was to rise to £5.50 as the eps of 76p would suggest that a dividend of about 40p will be easily affordable in 2026 at the latest and perhaps also in 2025 The selling that then took the shares below £5 did not seem to have any rational reason behind it The results were good and the outlook was good and the sale of CBAM for £200 million will also make the balance sheet even stronger going forward and CBAM was also not a very significant contribution to CBG profits anyway So if even the most pessimistic broker RBC sees a significant upside of £6.20 for the CBG share price with a total motor liability of £350 million, then the lower and the average expected liability of somewhere between £100 million and £200 million will probably see a share price for CBG significantly higher than £6.20 |
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