Circassia Share Discussion Threads

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 21/4/2021 15:28

Astro will probably find a buyer for their block of shares. Once profitability is achieved, to obtain a fair price of course.

[1pencil] 21/4/2021 14:29

On the topic of why would Astra Zeneca dispose of their holding. My reading of the situation is it formed part of the original partnership agreement back in 2017 (see below excerpt).

Therefore it seems reasonable to assume AZ will at some point unwind this position now the partnership has ended.

"Under the terms of the agreement, AstraZeneca will receive $50 million in Ordinary Shares in Circassia, calculated by reference to the lower of the weighted average share price of Circassia over the period 20 days (i) prior to signing or (ii) prior to closing (subject to a maximum number of shares). Circassia will also pay $100 million at the earlier of approval of Duaklir in the US or 30 June 2019. Should Circassia decide to exercise the option to sub-license the commercial rights to Tudorza in the US, Circassia will pay up to a further $80 million."

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 21/4/2021 13:53

Another mention on Vox markets today.
Go to 7:07mins

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 19/4/2021 08:59

Another top up for me.
My expectation is that we'll get a random trading update stating that sales are quickly returning to pre covid levels.

Good luck holders.

[1pencil] 09/4/2021 17:22

finns have them at EBITA breakeven for FY22, some 20 months away (and its EBITA which doesn't necessarily mean improved cash position).

Clearly they are targeting the home market to get things going a bit, that however will need funding to some degree.

Astra Zenneca now out of the frame, interested to see what happens to their stake, hopefully see some resolution to Lungfit issue as not much said.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 09/4/2021 12:32

From the annual report.

'On current gross margins this means that the EBITDA
breakeven point for the NIOX® business will be lower
than previously indicated at around £30 million of
annualised revenue, or £33 million for the Group.'

I guess the question is.. Can they do revenue of £33m+
I'd say going by the recent director purchases they can... Or at least they appear to be comfortable with their chances :)

[1pencil] 09/4/2021 11:54

Listened to most of the podcast, don't recall Circassia stating they have enough cash for breakeven, maybe I missed it?

[tomps2] 09/4/2021 11:15

The Stockopedia and piworld StockSlam April 2021 featured Circassia (CIR) which was ‘Slammed’ at 45:30 by David Thornton

Video:

Podcast:

[strathroyal] 06/4/2021 13:41

Agreed and at a high price by recent sp

[wongste] 06/4/2021 13:14

Good to see Directors buying more shares

[ingroid] 01/4/2021 09:41

why would Astra want to sell stake with such good prospects ?

[1pencil] 25/3/2021 14:44

yes, you're right, me being lazy and not doing the math or worse still doing it on my head and getting it wrong.

30% of the enlarged share issue 125,298,357

The last TR1 that I can see plus yesterday's 6m puts RG with 117,927,939

I would be interested to see who takes the Astra Zeneca holding if it becomes available, good opportunity for a near 20% stake for interested parties.

[thedudie] 25/3/2021 14:16

RG has just taken 30% of the new shares so effectively just maintains his near 30% position of the new enlarged number of shares

[1pencil] 25/3/2021 14:04

Richard Griffiths has subscribed to 6m shares in yesterdays placing, investor web already has his holding at 29.8%, would the additional shares not take him over 30% bidding threshold?

N+1 Singer initiated coverage yesterday, not very comprehensive as limited to three pages.

General message appears similar to my comments above although they have pushed out EBITA breakeven until 2022.

There's also a web cast which I have yet to listen to, one for Sunday afternoon perhaps.

[1pencil] 24/3/2021 11:46

Someone likes the story, if you can se past the Astra Zeneca involvement it becomes a relatively easy to understand Covid recovery play.

'Slow but steady recover' page 10



For the preceding three years prier to Covid, Niox business achieved annual growth of around 15%.

Hopefully Singers will have published a note/commenced coverage.

[1pencil] 24/3/2021 08:08

Slight improvement on some of the figures but some way to go yet for breakeven.

Encouraging to see Odier joining in to support the co0mpany, this helps no end by taking some of the market pressure off management.

It's really a waiting game from here until Covid is firmly under control allowing a resumption of testing.

[ayl30] 24/3/2021 07:17

Results today show continued progress which is good

[1pencil] 16/3/2021 09:10

A friend asked about Circassia, rather than go through it's history I thought it easier to post twitter link which gives a reasonable overview imo.

From February, UK Smallcap Investor



Also worth listening to Chris Mills podcast as suggested (24min, 45 secs in)

[ayl30] 16/3/2021 09:09

Ticking up over past month, interesting!

[1pencil] 12/3/2021 12:48

The world is slowly returning to normal, Circassia pointed towards this with their January TU (below quote).

"In the final few weeks of H1, revenues started to recover and have continued an upward trajectory, such that Q4 revenues were 86% of Q1 revenues."

Astra Zeneca long stop date is now only a couple of weeks away making for a much more streamline company and frankly, easier to understand financially.

If the recovery trend continues we may well be on our way to 2019 levels for this year assuming there is some pent up demand, if so we could see breakeven in 2021 with sustainable growth thereafter.

[1pencil] 11/3/2021 12:19

Whilst researching Circassia I came across their Niox Covid page, not sure if Niox is being promoted as an independent lung function test but possible.

-------------------

The importance of lung function testing in the COVID-19 pandemic

New international guidance has been issued which recommends the reintroduction of lung function testing for areas which are past the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic and entering a new phase of patient care. 1,2 Maintaining asthma control and following the individuals’ Asthma Plan continues to be critical during this time 3-5; this includes the importance of FeNO testing.6

Full article below

[ayl30] 11/3/2021 09:10

Inching up in past 3 weeks, something stirring in the undergrowth?

[1pencil] 06/3/2021 15:32

Any ideas what will happen to the AZ stake after March?

My understanding is they hold based on an equity/profit sharing basis, since changing brokers access to research is a bit limited.

[wongste] 04/1/2021 20:49

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/937584