Circassia Share Discussion Threads

[basem1] 17/4/2020 16:06

And sales aren't exactly flying No one seemed to notice to notice the profit warning at the end of last weeks AZN statement

[battyliveson] 17/4/2020 15:11

Hi Johnhelme2704

You could be right, I am long but have no inside track. I invest where I see an opportunity and was alerted by the director buying, and then noticed some familiar names and thought it worth taking a position. I would be disappointed if it went private at limited or no premium and would hope AZN would seek a good premium on behalf of all shareholders, as should non-execs and board.

Good luck.

B

[meijiman] 17/4/2020 13:20

Very difficult to call this share. Speculation as to lowball buyout to take private and maybe highball takeover! Meanwhile, the business is now debt free so aside from the corporate side of things the share price should be driven by drug news developments.
But even that is hard to call.

[chutes01] 17/4/2020 12:57

chart primed to move up again, imminent t/o got to be above 45p

[johnhelme2704] 17/4/2020 12:38

Battyliveson...call me a cynic but I smell Griffiths will take this private and then tidy it up over 24mths and sell it on

He has changed all the mgt. He is now refocusing the company...now waiting for acceptance of the AZN decisions. He has control of near 30% of shares. I hope I am wrong but it’s what happened at paysafe

[judge grinder] 17/4/2020 07:45

Asia up, Trump relaxing and the chart back on track. Expecting a reasonable day.

[johnhelme2704] 16/4/2020 15:58

dig a little deeper and you might find one of them has experience of previous transactions with Griffiths...I read it somewhere but unfortunately cant remember where (or even if I dreamt it!?)...but I think its true

[battyliveson] 16/4/2020 14:33

Looking at some of the recent director appointments of Johnson and Watts, both have a background in transactions, rather than pure stewardship. Something may happen quickly given Griffith holding, but I suspect they may take 24 months to really get this fit for acquisition to a larger pharma. They have already simplified the business and cleaned up the balance sheet. Similar tactics were used at Quantum Pharma prior to sale, where Johnson was involved. I have built a small position with a view to profiting at some point in next 24 months. Good luck to all holders.

B

[devonlad] 16/4/2020 10:34

A takeover would have to be at least 40p imho, I am pretty sure it will come given the new deal. That removes a lot of the risk from the business in terms of debt, it suddenly becomes a lot more profitable for a lower level of risk in a hgih growth area. That is a very attractive proposition. IMHO, DYOR.

[johnhelme2704] 16/4/2020 10:27

a contributor on the other board points out that Griffith personally owns about 9% and the other 20% or so is owned by companies he controls...Clever chap

[johnhelme2704] 16/4/2020 08:04

The directors bought knowing Griffiths shareholding and probable plans. We can assume they bought to make a profit. So any offer Griffiths makes must give them a worthwhile profit surely?

So using this logic I see a good premium coming when the offer is made so rightly or wrongly I have loaded up. Definitely not advice! I am wrong way more times than I am right

[shardview] 15/4/2020 22:02

Sorry for following up, but it's interesting! So, will we find out what he paid for his additional shares? The other director buys were at. 23, so one could assume about that level. 20= above this is circa 27.5. This stock is massively volatile. A 5^ daily move is nothing out of the ordinary, if the market expects a takeover it would have to trade between 23 and 27?

[devonlad] 15/4/2020 21:10

Doubt it, why would you get that close to 30% and not make a bid?

[judge grinder] 15/4/2020 20:26

thanks john great post
maybe he'll sit on his 29.83% and not make an offer.

[johnhelme2704] 15/4/2020 18:06

Possible but very much doubt it. He needs something like 70% acceptance. 3 or 4 big iis will need sweetening to accept (I hope lol)

[shardview] 15/4/2020 18:02

thank you john for your reply. following on, given that we don't know how much he paid for the most recent purchase, could it be possible for him to takeover a price below todays close?

[johnhelme2704] 15/4/2020 17:36

yes if/ when he gets to 30% there will be an offer. Offer price has to be greater than or equal to minimum he has paid for shares in the market over the last 12 months

The IIs will need a sweetener/ premium in order to accept the offer. I have been invested in companies taken over twice before (Aldermore and Paysafe). Both times it was above 20% premium if I remember correctly (Aldermore 22%, Paysafe 34%)

If the offer fails then he cant make a new offer for 12 months

Todays drop wouldnt impact the above statements...so my guess is that it is market movement

[shardview] 15/4/2020 17:08

so, am I correct that Griffiths now owns 29.8% of the company? getting closer to the mark at which a takeover offer is required. Any ideas how that might work out? could his increased holding explain todays drop, or is the just market movement?

[pro_s2009] 15/4/2020 01:57

More II buying......

[pro_s2009] 14/4/2020 12:23

Yes, no mention of any lock in, so I assume that AZ have no intention of bailing out and have expressed as such - hence no lock in needed.

[mdchand] 14/4/2020 10:13

Hi Pro - I did check the RNS and couldnt see any mention of a lock-in which should have been released as part of the RNS as it is material information. Still, I could have missed the relevant part so the mistake may be mine.

[pro_s2009] 14/4/2020 08:19

If there was any concern I would have thought that as part of the deal then a lock in would have been put in place for a period of time.

One has to assume AZ have no intention of selling in dribs and drabs, they will either hold for gain, plan to use CIR for some other project in future potentially, or will do a block transfer to an II.

[mdchand] 14/4/2020 07:51

Isn't anyone concerned about AZ holding an 18% stake in a business where they have no ongoing relationship? Won't ANZ simply start selling into the market, or is that not ANZ's typical operational style?

[100egs] 14/4/2020 07:46

Big vote of confidence this morning should reassure the market
i will be buying a few today.
gla