-3x Short China Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 22/9/2010 20:34

& thanks for your posts on the SC JT. I hadn't twigged the number of patents in that area. Intriguing. :)

[jtcod] 22/9/2010 19:25

Thanks for the reply edmund. I see where you are coming from now.

[hiq] 22/9/2010 19:25

Not forgetting I didn't buy the story on TAN, ACE, LNG etc either ;-)

CHNS is a bit different IMV in that it is certainly worth 175p +/-20%

[hiq] 22/9/2010 19:22

lol

OK I respect the analytic ability of the well-known successful people who believe in it and post here on ADVFN even if I don't buy the story

[3taz] 22/9/2010 19:21

Well they've got a recycling facility fer starters

[arty] 22/9/2010 19:16

Gee thanks hiq. (o8

[hiq] 22/9/2010 19:15

I'm sceptical that CHNS is anything but mainly a commoditized lead battery producer but will try to assume the best for future developments.

[3taz] 22/9/2010 19:10

I feel the potential here (and hopefully not the sc's) is explosive !! my shares are safely tucked up in my SIPP and that's exactly where they're staying for a good long while yet. This should be a very interesting time ahead. Great find JT THANKS FOR SHARING

[edmundshaw] 22/9/2010 18:56

Supercapacitors are in various places cited for advantages and disadvantages. Which I summarised.

Due to low energy density, they are usually said to hold one-fifth to one-tenth the energy of an electrochemical battery (by weight). They also discharge some energy that is not normally useful currently (the energy spectrum is too wide).

They are also said to be light, but I haven't seen what they are light in relation to: is it their maximum power output? It isn't the energy they can hold. So what do you need the battery for in a car? With the engine off, you'd want good energy retention for running electrics like heat and lights. I guess an SC or a smaller additional battery would be enough. On the other hand, SCs (as SLI batteries) give excellent power over weight for the surge required for the starting motor, or the burst of power that a hybrid can give you. My couple of hours of trawling the net makes it seem that you need a bit of both battery & SC for a hybrid. And currently, the weight of the battery for an electric car is already a big issue. For a hybrid, it will depend on what you want I guess, but having both an SC and a Li-ion/NiMH battery seems to be the norm. For now.

Anyhow, I was thinking more electric vehicles rather than hybrids. There the SC does not hold enough energy for a car.

I have to say a lot of the sites seem to quote the same source(s), so not necessarily corroboration (a general problem with secondary sources that the internet exacerbates).

Anyhow, this is all a slight red herring. SCs have huge number of applications for which they outperform other electrical storage devices, and the price point has got very appealing. They are a big bit of the future. I'm hoping, like you, that CHNS will take full advantage both for profit & future proofing, and also diversification of income.

[chrisbrown71] 22/9/2010 18:37

JTCod,

All the applications you mentioned describe the use of SCs alongside batteries in order to provide short term bursts of power. After the SC had provided this burst, it would recharge itself from the battery.

Mattjos,

Toyota are thinking of using SCs in their hybrid vehicles, to be recharged automatically by the engine when they run down. I cannot find any links other than futuristic stuff that describe how SCs will be used in electric cars - if there are any, I'd love to see some links.

Cheers

[jtcod] 22/9/2010 18:26

Edmund
The information I have read is that Sc batteries are smaller and lighter. So I am puzzled as to how you may have formed the impression that they were too heavy for cars.

Something I was looking at earlier shows how these things can be used for cars and lap-tops among other things (I am not a fan of CPX as an investment btw but they do serve the discussion well and also show how cheap CHNS is by comparison):

Automotive
"Supercapacitors are seen as an enabling technology for resolving critical vehicle power requirements. Driving operations such as ignition and acceleration require significant bursts of power. While banks of batteries can be used, they are very bulky (oversized and over weight) and not well suited to power-burst applications. In general, the advantages of supercapacitors over batteries in the automotive market include their reduced size and weight which yields both design and cost improvements, their operating temperature range, and their ability to absorb and deliver energy very quickly."


Notebook PC
"Short battery life is still one of the limitations of notebook PCs. A laptop is only functional for as long as it can store enough energy to power it. To enhance and prolong the power management system, a supercapacitor can be used to reduce excessive power load and thus extend the battery's run time.

CAP-XX supercapacitors can be used to optimize battery utilization by buffering power demand and smooth fluctuating power loads. They can be charged and discharged thousands of times without degradation, offering extra power during peak-load times such as hard drive usage, CD disk writing, or DVD play operations.

CAP-XX supercapacitors are also used in numerous PCMCIA cards powering notebook PCs today. The Company is also developing supercapacitors to enable battery swaps while the notebook is in sleep mode. This complementary system will reduce user delays as well as design-in component costs, using existing boost and buck converters as necessary."



The site is a mine of information on Supercapacitor applications.

[mattjos] 22/9/2010 16:59

Ed .. do a bit of digging around Toyota and Sc's for starters :-) .. the game is moving on fast

[edmundshaw] 22/9/2010 16:50

No offence taken. My understanding is that the SC is used in conjunction with a Li-ion battery for car use. Obviously lifting equipment (fork lifts for example) and diesel lorries is a differet story as the weight aspect is less important, indeed can be used as ballast.

What is your point? Do you think SCs alone is viable for cars?

[mattjos] 22/9/2010 16:41

Edmund .. no offence but, i think you should go do some more research on SC's in the auto sector.

[rhuvaal] 22/9/2010 16:21

exceedingly useful posts from Edmund & JT, many thanks.

[edmundshaw] 22/9/2010 16:05

Apart from use for regenerative braking and maybe as a load conditioner, supercapacitors are too heavy for most core motor power use I think. You get around 3–5 Wh/kg for a supercapacitor (2010 estimate) compared to 30-40 Wh/kg for a lead acid battery. They also lose charge more quickly, have lower voltages, and are more dangerous electrically than other batteries (as they can discharge very fast so a potentially BIG shock).

OTOH, they last many times longer (more charge cycles), charge very fast, have high cycle efficiency at about 95% (and so give off less heat), high output power, are cheaper per cycle, are greener, cannot be overcharged and are safer chemically (no corrosive electrolyte & toxic materials).

So I see a very much a different usage pattern than lead acid or Li-ion or NiMH types. Outdoor lighting yes, laptops no, other consumer electronics sometimes (think light but low energy held and higher cost per Watt), load conditioning yes, wind & solar yes, cars yes in conjunction with a main chemical battery.

[martylangan] 21/9/2010 19:47

Fantastic research JTC. Just studying Super Capacitor Batteries myself and didnt even realise the potential! Do you know how advanced CHNS are with these?
I can understand the potential you see here!

[jtcod] 21/9/2010 19:28

Fwiw I have written up some of my personal research for the board and will post in parts as I have done above.

CHINA SHOTO (CHNS)
16-9-2010
Share Price 180p
Market Cap £42m
Shares in Issue 23.34m (Diluted issue 24.05m)
Annualised H1 PSR 0.25
Historic PE - 1.8
2010 PE 2.9 (forecast)
Net Debt £3m cash positive
Gearing - zero

REVENUE
2002: £15.86m
2003: £16.42m
2004: £18.69m
2005: £28.41m (H2 Weighting 58.6%)
2006: £59.54m (H2 Weighting 52.3%)
2007: £107.5m (H2 Weighting 64.7%)
2008: £183.08m (H2 Weighting 62.5%)
2009: £212.57m (H2 Weighting 54.4%)
2010: £171m est (though H2 expected to be stronger)

5 year average weighting to H2 is 58.5%. This equates to 41% average increase over H1 revenues on 5 year data.

If I assume zero improvement on H1 and annualise the H1 revenue to represent £171m for the year then CHNS would have achieved 978% growth in 8 calendar years from 2002. Despite the drop in revenue, this represents compound growth of 34% pa. Growth has been exceptional here and it is understandable to see the company pause for breath after a 7 year run like that.

[jtcod] 21/9/2010 19:09

I don't know if this has been posted here before

What's the role of the Supercapacitor


My take on things:

Laptops, I-pads, Phones

Super Capacitor Batteries = Instant charging and smaller footprint. It also means an almost permanent solution and so will be a premium price product. Renewal business will be based upon improved power etc of latest design. On economic grounds and also size it opens up all kinds of new markets. 'Street lighting' was the most obvious because it fit's the profile so well: Small size, almost limitless life cycle, low power needs and instant recharge during daylight hours.

"The Company believes that energy storage batteries offer further significant market potential." So do I.

In 10 yrs time you will probably stand in any modern street and be in the vicinity of countless super capacitor batteries within a 100 yd radius. They will be everywhere. In the car, in the solar street lamps, your lap top, mobile phone, solar powered lighting system and heating system of the house, household appliances (power tools etc), the solar lighting backup for the garden and pond pump, literally inside granddad for medical purposes (such is the unique quality of this solution). The technology is not blue sky either, it's here and now and it already powered lighting at the Beijing Olympics in 2008.

There are people posting on the CHNS thread that CHNS has gone ex-growth because one sector of the business (Telecoms) has come off a steep growth curve. They are entitled to their opinion of course. I think it's fair to say that the company do need to spread their business mix further. Far too high a percentage of overall business is camped in Telecoms.

When Super Capacitor batteries kick in properly for street lighting alone, the telecoms battery business at peak sales will be a drop in the ocean by comparison imo.

Almost everywhere you see solar panels used in the future, the solution will be combined with SC batteries.

Remember when CD came out? The manufacturers dreamed of one in every household at the time. The reality was 5x that amount or more. Well super capacitor batteries are so efficient I doubt we can imagine half the applications it will fulfil in 10 and 20yrs time.

I see cars as a slow burner perhaps but apart from 28% annual growth in traditional car ownership in China, there is also the Hybrid car manufactured and exported by Japanese manufacturers. This is established technology and makes use of energy that is otherwise wasted in order to recharge the battery. There is zero 'household grid re-charging' required.





The upshot is the world is going green and I believe China will be greener than most in time because such change will take money and China is rich. Right now Batteries have an essential part to play in the future of the worlds green credentials without even considering the alternative it offers on economic grounds. That's another story altogether. Oil will not stay sub $100 for ever. There will be a tipping point where the battery/solar panel solution will be driven exponentially imo.

As ever all IMHO and always DYOR of course.

[mattjos] 21/9/2010 18:13

well spotted JT :-)

[martylangan] 21/9/2010 16:10

Great info thanks JTC.

[jtcod] 21/9/2010 15:19

I agree with Matt that future growth for CHNS will be on the back of Solar Lighting and Electric Cars and hybrid vehicles. More specifically the future for CHNS is tied up in a little number - ZL02257929.X

It's the application number for a 'rectangular super capacitor of large capacity' patent.

SC batteries are the future imo. They will be a premium product because they last significantly longer than traditional batteries. They are ideal for Solar Street Light solutions in particular and they deliver recharging in seconds.

Solar lighting will have it's key area's of penetration in fast growing countries where high Government infrastructure budgets are expended. China, Germany, India..........

The key to this patent as far as I can see (as there is little information available) is that it is 'large capacity'. That should project it beyond the lighting field and into other solutions.

I'm still learning and not as clued up as Matt but I have no doubt this is where the future lies.

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[martylangan] 21/9/2010 13:48

Thanks Matt, were the learnings regarding the car batteries or solar storage? I trust your judgement in this... Ive read some interesting things about BYD lately and from what Buffett/Munger are talking, car batteries are big business in the coming years... Be interesting to find where CHNS sits with this.

Im sure though if the information you had was something that would help increase the price and interest in the company that they would have issued more information on it...?

[keane16] 21/9/2010 12:32

some spread with these on IG