-3x Short China Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 21/1/2011 09:44

2*'s bought the outgoing Chair's stock

[mattjos] 21/1/2011 09:43

they are one and the same

[martylangan] 21/1/2011 09:42

Bought some more myself. Couldnt miss the opportunity!

[crawford] 21/1/2011 09:32

JT,
I'm talking my figures from the China Shoto website:



"1. What is Shoto's shareholder structure?
China Shoto's single largest shareholder is Two Stars Invest Ltd, which owns 56.02% shareholdings of the company, whilst, Wit Invest Ltd owns 9.88% shareholdings of the company."

[rivaldo] 21/1/2011 09:20

Crawford, thx for the HB Buy view. If even HB can get this right and are ahead of the market then that's really saying something....

It appears 2010 is going to bring in around 68p-70p EPS. That's an extremely creditable performance.

[crawford] 21/1/2011 09:17

jwe,
they have ramped down costs quite considerably in H2.

What would be the procedure for a 56% shareholder to take us private? I assume the majority of the rest of the shareholders would have to agree to the takeover?

[jwe] 21/1/2011 09:10

Steg-I`m not so sure.All i`m saying is it is worth checking.The other niggle i have in assuming 68p EPS is that this would imply a more than doubling of earnings in H2.Whilst it can safely be assumed they increased that does seem rather a lot

[crawford] 21/1/2011 09:10

HB Update:

China Shoto (CHNS, 257.5p, £59.85m)

China Shoto (CHNS, 257.5p, £59.85m) After a very questionable fall ahead of today's profits warning CHNS has warned that lower spending by 3 customer in the telecoms will lead to post-tax profits for the year ending December 2010 will be 30% below 2009 (2009 was £23.46m) so implying post-tax around £17.92m. However this was already factored into the view. As such treat the weakness as an opportunity to Buy with a fair value maintained at 360p. BUY (Julian Tolley).

[mattjos] 21/1/2011 09:05

have said this before and i'll say it a little louder now. Shoto have unfortunately not got the best nomad + have not got a strong enough English representation on the board, given their uk listing.
(If you compare this setup to the job that Robbie Robertson did for WCC with EVO).
wording of the statement is a case for the poor english society but seems to be masking figures way better than the general market had expected.
One is left wondering if the sub-text is being deliberately made rather unclear.

[stegrego] 21/1/2011 08:58

But surely if the say 30percent off net profit then that's 30 off 23 million?

[jwe] 21/1/2011 08:49

Care.I think 2009 results included some one offs so EPS here(for 2010) may not be as high as the 68p RNS implies.Rivaldo`s post 104 maybe worth reading.
Still looks cheap but maybe not quite as cheap as first appears
Just a thought-no position

[jtcod] 21/1/2011 08:49

I can't help wondering how easy it would be for a 66% shareholder to take this off the AIM market at a 25-30% premium and plant it on HK for double (possibly triple) the price once 2011 figures are out.

[crawford] 21/1/2011 08:46

P/E of 5 has these on around 350p, that is where I think they should be today.

Last years results should really be treated as a one-off anomly on Chinese stimulus measures; without them then the EPS growth record over the last 5 years looks quite consistent to me.

[yump] 21/1/2011 08:44

This is where those who haven't done their homework get stung when they react to the headline and take no notice of last year's results and why they were so high.

Makes you think about the way the market reacts. If the company had issued a statement a couple of years ago saying they were going to grow compound at this rate, but were expecting 2009 to be a bumper exceptional year, to be followed by a resumption of 'normal' growth rates, nobody would have batted an eyelid.

[crawford] 21/1/2011 08:37

rivaldo/JT,
agree, the wording is strange, you just know that it will be marked down on poor wording like that.

I was still surprised how far down it started trading at.

[jtcod] 21/1/2011 08:36

The mm's don't usually bother to value imo. They see 30% down and move 30% down.

[crawford] 21/1/2011 08:34

eacn,
lol, that's why it bounced so quickly!

JT - interesting comment - do you think the MM's marked it down deliberately to hit some stock losses and get some trades going?

[rajauk] 21/1/2011 08:33

I think it may be be stock of poor people who got stopped out.

[jtcod] 21/1/2011 08:33

Steg
I could only get 3k

[rivaldo] 21/1/2011 08:33

It's just pure laziness on the part of the NOMAD/advisers. I remember dealing with a NOMAD on a director sale RNS - I wanted to explain in the RNS that there were good reasons for the director's selling, but the moron just wouldn't accept it as he felt the fact of the sale was all the market needed to know. The possible effect on the share price seemed to be something beyond his comprehension.

The advisers should be sitting down with the company to word it properly - this has the feel of something rushed out quickly. Especially as CHNS are (as is common knowledge) not very savvy in their relations with and knowledge of the market.

The upside is that it's given us all an opportunity to make money this morning :o))

[jtcod] 21/1/2011 08:32

When you considers the financial result for the year. It is as though the note were written by a manic depressive in the pr department. lol

[stegrego] 21/1/2011 08:32

Odd that so much free stock around.

Either someone is clever and we are stupid or vice versa.

[jtcod] 21/1/2011 08:30

No wonder I couldn't get much.