-3x Short China Discussion Threads

[aim11] 18/8/2010 14:15

i would think its too small to relist, i believe there are size and free float requirements and also relist costs which prob make it unlikely, as with stocks like gng. happy to be corrected on that.

[yump] 18/8/2010 13:40

I didn't know parrots were allowed to post on bb's.

I've got a couple of my own: one keeps on saying 'buy low, sell high'. Don't know where it got that gem from, but it seems to work really well.

The other one keeps on saying 'doomed', but can't manage anything else, so I suspect its just referring to some inner existential struggle of its own.

[pro_s2009] 18/8/2010 13:15

Any reason apart from its now ex-growth and profits are falling........

Errrr I think that is enough of a reason.

[fft] 18/8/2010 12:03

any reason why CHNS couldnt relist in HK ?

[evaluate] 18/8/2010 12:01

Given it's been massivley oversubscribed at the current price, I'm REALLY EXCITED about the WCC launch in HK.

I really think it's going to absolutely fly.

[aim11] 18/8/2010 11:55

that's what i'm doing evaluate, just looking around at other potential stocks in case wcc moves up faster than i'm anticipating...at the moment i expect to be holding it for another year at least, but you never know

[evaluate] 18/8/2010 11:54

Downside is extremely limted.

particularly as their NTAV is over £2!

Hard to see any downside from here.

I intend to load up even more once the WCC story has had time to play out.

[aim11] 18/8/2010 11:51

thks interceptor, looks like some good work tho haven't checked numbers.

using c50p eps for 2010 that obviously puts the stock on 3.5x, 3-4x current yr eps is where AIM seems to take overseas stocks that have challenging mkt condition comments, -ve eps revisions etc - i don't hv proof of this, just my feeling over time. i still don't have a position either way, don't know enough about what's going on really. but assuming they can do 50p and eps isn't going down in 2011 then i'd have thought downside from here is fairly limited.

[interceptor2] 18/8/2010 10:57

Good morning

I have spent the morning number crunching to try and come up with what the Interims and Full year results may look like.

First I looked back to the last three reporting years to work out the H1 and H2 split. Which were as follows.

2008 = Revenue 35/65, PBIT 48/52, EPS 52/48
2009 = Revenue 37/63, PBIT 38/62, EPS 38/62
2010 = Revenue 44/56, PBIT 26/74, EPS 24/76

Average = Revenue 38/62, PBIT 37/61, EPS 38/62
For forward projections I have used a very conservative 44/56 for Revenue, PBIT AND EPS. Which fits in well for what we already know about H1. Considering they said Tax will materially increase, I have used a tax rate of 20% rather than 13% last reported to help with the EPS figure. A bit of guess unless others have a better idea of likely increase.

I looked at the Lead chart kindly posted by Mattjos, and it's interesting to note that in 2008 H2 it was rising yet the H2 gain wasn't as large as 2010 H2 when it was also rising. But when they were falling in 2009 H2, the gains were very decent still. So just incase we see a negative effect in H2 I have have been ultra conservatives with my figures.

H1
Revenue = £85.8m -12%
PBIT = £5.62m -11%
EPS = 19.25p

H2
Revenue = 110.2m -12%
PBIT = £7.17m -61%
EPS = 24.2p

Full Year
Revenue = £196.0m
PBIT = £12.79m
EPS = 43.45p

As I say these are ultra conservative, and I might have been far to pessimistic with H2 forecasts. I wouldn't be surprised to see results nearer to Seymour Pierce forecast of PBIT £17.20p and EPS 62.7p, and I note that they haven't changed forecasts yet after the trading statement.

So by all means pick the numbers apart, any silly mistakes or incorrect assumption, I would be interested to hear of and look again.

Regards ic2.........

[molatovkid] 17/8/2010 21:50

Thats it....Sir Brainy - 17 Aug'10 - 16:23 - 780 of 780 (Filtered) as is Pro...

[sir brainy] 17/8/2010 16:23

Ye scoffed @ ma 175p.

i was right

[sir brainy] 17/8/2010 16:22

Chop suey.

See Nighthawk, the morons

[hvs] 17/8/2010 16:09

Is it true the Chinese have invented BENT CHop Sticks ?

[sir brainy] 17/8/2010 16:06

Batteries.

Positive?

Negative?

[martylangan] 17/8/2010 15:40

Does anyone know the percentage of repeat business CHNS recieves from their battery sales?

[aim11] 17/8/2010 15:39

s there any hk move in the off-ing for this one? or too small? wondered if it had ever been talked about. biz prob needs to turn back around first

[cordwainer] 17/8/2010 15:30

As far as I can deduce, the first supply of CHNS batteries to China Unicom are already 3 years old this autumn, but I suspect they last longer.

I note the first 5 months were reported 15% down, whereas the first half is 12% down, so at least the situation seems to be contained for now.

[martylangan] 17/8/2010 14:55

Matt dont lower yourself to the bait from the clown. Never heard him say anything positive on any thread. Mind u, thats probably because Ive got him on filter.

[mattjos] 17/8/2010 14:32

Pro .. not hurting :-) Still in profit actually from last year and what i have i traded into 'for free' last year. looking for some more now on a long term basis as i have said.

[muangsing] 17/8/2010 13:41

Pro

"a few years down the line" mmmm not very specific. Similar to how you are incapable of saying what you think profit or net cash will be at 31 December 2010.

I have seen the figure of 3 years re replacement. Just about in the same ballpark
as Mattjos 3-5 years.

[aim11] 17/8/2010 13:10

ok thks. i'll investigate it further perhaps. valuation wise i don't like to think about p/e ex cash for small AIM stocks, because the mkt never seems to think that way - gng being an example. if you have a company that's saying the environment is challenging and eps ests are going down, then 3-4x current yr eps (not adj for any cash) is about as good as you can hope for on AIM, i'd have thought, back of the envelope.

[muangsing] 17/8/2010 13:06

Pro

Do you know how long the batteries last for?