China Nonferrous Gold Share Discussion Threads

[bmcb5] 21/1/2021 11:58

Good to hear, Mattjos, thanks. I have no plans to buy or sell, but am happily sitting on what I have

[mattjos] 19/1/2021 15:12

& when a little seller does emerge, it just triggers a flurry of small buys

[mattjos] 19/1/2021 12:05

Price rise not exactly flushing out a tide of sellers

[mattjos] 19/1/2021 08:15

Finally WHIS now moved up significantly on the order book

[mattjos] 18/1/2021 15:18

bit more two-way volume coming back into the stock now that signs of life are emerging

[mattjos] 17/1/2021 16:51

For obvious reasons (7th highest % Gainer on LSE) the thread experienced 3 month high in number of visits on Friday so, likely now been put on a few other Watchlists. We've been overlooked for quite an extended period of time now but, throughout that time progress will have been made at Pakrut. The Mine Plan and underlying assumptions had anticipated steady state processing of the price of Gold to average $1,300 / oz for this year of production …. gold currently averaging circa 30% above that figure.

[mattjos] 15/1/2021 20:09

Agreed kingyon1, glad to hear at least one other concludes same.Achieving Phase II should be greeted with some enthusiasm by the market later this year.

[kingyon1] 15/1/2021 18:13

Hi Matt, you are not alone! I bought a few more on Wednesday. I too have noticed the slow canny accumulation over the last few sessions. If/when the second phase is in full tilt this year I firmly believe we’ll be off to the races. Debt pay down could be a lot more rapid than people think if POG holds over $1800.

[mattjos] 15/1/2021 16:52

do pop in and say hello whoever the other buyer(s) is/are

[mattjos] 15/1/2021 14:50

strongly bid this afternoon .. not that I am remotely tempted at this stupid price

[mattjos] 15/1/2021 14:34

There's the breakout

[mattjos] 15/1/2021 08:55

Couple of new links in the header for folk

[mattjos] 14/1/2021 21:00

Clever Trading again today … gave up 100 & gained 40,000 It's a slow motion lesson in accumulation for those interested to watch

[mattjos] 07/1/2021 13:08

Online Buy & Sell price is identical at 9.55p

[mattjos] 07/1/2021 11:36

someone here is entering tiny buy orders on the Bid side to try and encourage some selling & hoping to get follow on selling as a result … the liquidity is currently low and so that is how they have managed to get some stock recently (unopposed). Personally, I believe there is some stealthy background demand for the stock … all is not as it seems to the casual observer.

[mattjos] 07/1/2021 09:39

I don't get as hung up about the debt as others seem to. CNMIM are behaving impeccably towards their prodigy. They are standing behind the debt until such time as the mine has reached its full planned productive output & reliably so … based on the main 'levers' that influence the financials of such an operation, CNG will be able to deal with that debt & start to reduce it. The fact that equity remains overlooked just now does not mean it will permanently remain so. As/when Pakrut starts producing at / around 100,000oz Gold a year, the market will not be able to ignore it & it looks increasingly likely that the mine will achieve that milestone during a time when gold is trading at over well over $2,000/oz … that's annual Revs of $200m+ from a low-cost operation. The debt won't look so intimidating to folk then & I believe the equity certainly won't be valued at less than 20p

[digger18] 07/1/2021 09:05

Thank you for the summary Matt. I am also looking for them to make a statement regarding the debt management, so if this and phase 2 update come together, in conjunction with current POG, this should start to roll. Like Aaz, we seem to be in an RNS watershed moment.

[mattjos] 06/1/2021 19:04

I'll spare everyone all the details and cut'n'paste of where I get the information from but, if you do the legwork it's all out there for you to find and you'll see what I am posting is correct: Here is my current Overall Status summary of Pakrut. Phase I completed mid-November 2018 Planned lead time from Completion of Phase I to completion of Phase II is 32 months. We are now in the 26th month of steady-state 2,000t/day Production so, assume Phase II production uplift will arrive from July this year. Planned Phase II rate of Production is 106,000oz / year Combined Processing and Refining rate was planned/calculated at 82.99% From the last Half Year results, the actual combined (Processing and Refining) Rate was 79.14% (85.96% of 92.07%) The Economic Cut-Off point was planned/calculated at 1.58g/t … BUT, this was based on a Gold Price of $1,250/oz & the sensitivity analysis showed that "the sale price has the most influence when calculating economic cut-off, followed in decreasing order of influence by Operating Cost, static ROI & Royalty Rate." A 20% increase in the Gold Sales price (from $1,250/oz to $1,500/oz lowered the Economic Cut-Off to 1.32g/t. The SRK model did not even forecast / model gold price any higher than this but, at the current Gold Price, it looks likely that the Economic Cut-Off is now down to circa 1.1g/t Average Grade of Ore being reported is 2.28g/t So, we have no problem with length of Mine. Combined Recovery Rate is 5% below target (hence management reference to focus on improving this). Realised Gold price is well above expected and more than offsets the Recovery Rate variance. As mining projects go, I believe the company is doing a great job & it's not long to wait before we move into the next gear & start to see some real cashflow being thrown off by the operation. Some people might not like the way data is reported here as it seems different from other miners but, the company is reporting on key performance data that was deemed relevant & highlighted per the Mine Plan. I'm sure management is keeping things simple and the message to the Pakrut team is to hit/exceed the metrics as per the Mine Plan and Pakrut will be a winner Once we hit steady-state Phase II then, I'm quite sure we'll go back exploring at Eastern Pakrut and Rufigar and then Sulfidnoye because, the earlier reports came up with some exceptional grades there & about our doorstep.

[mattjos] 06/1/2021 11:11

we'll have to wait and see what the FY figures are when released in Feb & whether or not they have managed to introduce any aspects of the Phase II expansion. That aside, pog is once again marching higher and I believe will average well over $1,900 this year

[digger18] 05/1/2021 12:34

Matt, what do you see as a catalyst here to see a serious share price movement? News flow is very weak and major concerns over debt financing, but great potential.

[jeffus77] 02/1/2021 14:27

Bank of America has updated its 2021 forecast to $2,063 average price.

[mattjos] 02/1/2021 12:28

Hari, the company is still in the expansion phase ie Working towards completion of Phase II of the project and therefore a doubling of processing capacity and resulting output. Implementation may well have been blown off course in 2020 as a consequence of Covid but, i am assuming that certain amount of the project milestones will have been achieved & the remainder will be achieved as soon as is possible. The company is able to stand on its own two feet with Phase I completed. Phase II costs are much, much smaller than those incurred in Phase I. It is proving to be a lengthy & challenging gestation & not surprising in some ways given the location but, it is a very significant accomplishment to date. The real returns will start once Phase II development starts to be reflected in the production figures. I guess my answer is encapsulated in the last sentence of my post in that i don't particularly concern myself with how others interpret the current situation .. it's more about how the market will interpret the facts once we achieve the full targeted annual production figures and the price of Gold thereafter.

[hari] 02/1/2021 08:40

Happy new year everyone “Assuming they do 16,000oz this year in the same time period @ $1,865/oz, that's $29.8m and a total of $66.35m for the year v $49.16m for 2019. Near as damn it 35% increase in Annual Revenue. Current mkt cap is $50m so, valued at 0.75 * FY Revs I don't care what anyone else has to say but, that has got to be too cheap & is stupid cheap if you believe Gold is going to trade anywhere near most commentators price targets for 2021 (GS have $2,300, BofA have $3,000)” Mattjos , I have a question with regards to this statement because I read this argument about • FY revenues alot. Would you say this Co is still cheap , if it had say $400m or $500m or $1billion debt? You have to draw the line somewhere , where is that line ? For me if the debt cannot be serviced and paid down / reduced every year ,then is valuing it based on * FY Revenues has any relevance ? TIA

[danmart2] 31/12/2020 13:19

Despite this being an impressive set up in terms of the mine and operation, there is still no evidence the debt is being addressed and i am not sure any more prospective shareholders will take any interest in the company until they address this major issue. Looks like another Chinese company set up on the UK markets set to drift and fail.