Chemring Share Discussion Threads

[daytraders] 14/11/2012 14:51

seen this a million times before thou in other companys, only to see the share keep falling, maybe different here thou.

[simon gordon] 14/11/2012 14:50

Yes, that's the first positive sign since the new CEO joined.

[graham2405] 14/11/2012 14:44

Look, the new CEO is hardly going to spend over £100k on shares and then on the 27th of this month report another profit warning.....

....is he?


Well thats my 2 cents.

[graham2405] 14/11/2012 14:38

New CEO and Chairman put their hands in their pockets and buy £110k of shares each.

Hardly a token amount, especially for the new CEO.

I'm increasing my holding.....

best of luck to the shorts......... ;-)

[simon gordon] 14/11/2012 14:02

ards,

You have a point, CHG spent a lot of money on acquisitions and maybe some of them will turn out to be rubbish, they could have been hidden up to now. When a share price crumbles like this you never know what can come out of the woodwork. That's why it's best to be very cynical.

"You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out"

Warren Buffett

[ards] 14/11/2012 13:24

graham

I wish you the best of luck but the chart never lies. You obviously dont like the comparison with jarvis and mouchel. With jarvis the problem was that the rail contracts just disappeared as network rail took them into house. with mouchel the contracts just dried up as the international construction scene contracted. there were also black holes in the accounts only uncovered when ce was gone. costain had actually offered big bucks for the company a few months before administration. I am not saying that chemring is in such dire straits but there are a couple of warning signs: the chart, the ce going and contracts drying up. I think chemring has head room on convenants and has some cash but the good times are obviously hehind the company. The issue is what is already baked into price. I still think it will turn around but I will wait this buy signal given. Will probably miss the first rise but capital will be intact. As stated I would urge small positions unless you can afford to lose. but hay what to I know. I got stopped out of apple at 80 and never reentered.

[graham2405] 14/11/2012 08:33

We have our first director purchase, not a significant amount, but it's a start.

NonExec Vanda Murray 3,000 shares

[graham2405] 14/11/2012 08:00

"the bid and due diligence threw up some unexpected surprises"

No, the bid was pulled a few hours after Romney lost the election, at that point Carlyle knew that Obamas planned defence cuts would probably go ahead, thus restricting how much they were prepared to pay for Chemring.

Up and until that point Carlyle were pursuing Chemring, and Invesco being the 30% holder were the sellers that had to be accomodated in order for a bid to succeed.

One could assume that the appointment of a new CEO was done at the behest of Invesco, given the 30% holding and given that Carlyle may not have been prepared to pay enough to satisfy Invesco.

Invesco had a price in mind for their shares, it is clear that Carlyle were awaiting the election result before paying it.

That said, it is also pretty clear that Invesco have forced the appointment of a guy that is well experienced in turning around businesses.

"Reminds me a bit of jarvis and mouchel"

.......priceless

I'm in.....

All IMHO, DYOR

[blippy2] 13/11/2012 10:16

ards: "the bid and due diligence threw up some unexpected surprises"

Agreed. Why would a potential bidder walk away from a company that was "obviously" cheap?

ards: "Reminds me a bit of jarvis and mouchel"

Me too.

I thought that a recent RNS didn't point to revenue problems, only production problems. So I can see why people thought it a contrarian buy.

The big problem is that we don't know if future revenues are going to be good or bad - and current indications are that it's dicey - so it's not clear in my mind that CHG is a good bet.

[gymfit] 13/11/2012 08:21

Could have a way to fall

[ards] 13/11/2012 08:18

heard someone on bloomberg saying institutions suffering investor fatigue. basically an impossible investment environment driven by chronic fiscal problems with no sight in end. with 70% of trading now bot driven and high freq I am afraid retail usually get stuffed. I think what has happened with chg is that the bid and due diligence threw up some unexpected surprises for the board. neil woodward demanded a head and the ce went. the question is whether the company is fixable. I took a punt at 270 but sold yesterday. I have a gut feeling that given the board are keeping their hands in their pockets all is not well. Even high profile companies can get into trouble quickly. Reminds me a bit of jarvis and mouchel. I would advise caution.

[the stinger] 12/11/2012 21:28

Its the next warning & probable no dividend announcement that worries me now. Probably see us down to £1.50 1.80 if no dividend announced. To risky now.

[ards] 12/11/2012 20:52

the problem I have is the management silence. in my experience this is probably the worst sign possible. hard to know what to do. my gut says could even go into administration but my heart wants a bet. lets face it any management who watches it share drop from 700 to 200 or so without a care is either incompetent or not concerned as they have taken their cut.

[bulltradept] 12/11/2012 18:25

"thinking of having a nibble at these as well. Looks like further to fall though so deciding entry point the tricky bit."

If the divi is held, you'll have to be quick I suspect as it becomes clear this is a market leading business at a decade low..

[wllmherk] 12/11/2012 17:12

thinking of having a nibble at these as well. Looks like further to fall though so deciding entry point the tricky bit.

wllm

[simon gordon] 12/11/2012 16:07

Yeah, I've also got my eye on 200p as an entry point, suppose this will be determined by the next update. Cobham getting hit today as 2013 gets downgraded.

[salpara111] 12/11/2012 15:55

This could well be a good play around the 200 level in a few months when the dust settles.

[ards] 12/11/2012 13:03

looks like last one out turn off the lights.

[simon gordon] 10/11/2012 17:22

All being well, the share could crawl back to long term support at 310p:

[masurenguy] 10/11/2012 13:11

Little chance of another bid for Chemring, says Credit Suisse

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Shares in defence contractor Chemring continued to fall on Thursday morning after The Carlyle Group announced last night that it will not be making an offer for the company. Credit Suisse reiterated its 'neutral' rating and 330p target price for the stock today, saying: "We see slim chance of other bids in the short term." The broker highlighted three reasons for this:

1) Chemring announced a profit warning since the initial approach from US asset management firm Carlyle. Credit Suisse said: "We believe management has been struggling to cope with deteriorating end-market conditions, and, with no permanent CFO and a sudden CEO replacement, we see risk that the situation deteriorates further before any improvements";

2) Obama's re-election suggests that visibility on defence spending will remain weak. The broker said that a Democrat win makes it increasingly likely that that US base budget declines at a 8% compound annual growth rate in 2012-14;

3) US primes are prioritising restricting and returning cash to shareholders ahead of M&A, the broker said. "Further, we think other private equity bidders could be put off by Carlyle walking away after a period of extended due diligence."

While the shares trade at just 7.8 times forward estimated earrings, the broker said it is staying cautious, saying that the stock is "clearly volatile given earnings uncertainty". Shares were down 6.9% at 240.14p in mid-morning trade on Thursday. The stock finished last week at 277.3p.

[tom111] 08/11/2012 09:17

Still in the throws of catching a falling knife i feel

[kiwihope] 08/11/2012 09:00

Failure of bid mostly priced in, hence the relatively small fall in price (its only a few pence below where it fell after last trading update).

Keep talking it down guys, I want a good low price to buy more. I believe this is a solid company which will recover in time. Everything goes in cycles...

[tom111] 08/11/2012 08:26

I would be tempted at 200 ards

[ards] 08/11/2012 08:22

no expect shorters to pile in and take to 200. a shorter the other day wrote that the would never short until a 50% drop occurred as this is when despair sets in.

[ards] 08/11/2012 08:20

would be nice to see new ce dip into his pocket and pick up a few