Chemring Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 17/10/2013 08:54

I`m out again this morning.

[hazelton] 17/10/2013 06:54

I am unclear about the debt problem , what particular bit of it gives rise for special concern ?

[jonntara] 16/10/2013 22:43

Debts are a bit high for my comfort but there has been a hell of a drop in the price. So worth a dabble in my opinion.

[bookbroker] 16/10/2013 21:00

Dead cat bounce, these have got serious balance sheet issues!

[jonntara] 16/10/2013 17:58

Dipped my toe in today and picked up 1600 shares at 205p. Fingers crossed.

[yorgi] 16/10/2013 17:44

Yes the deal well received here and in my view at this level well oversold.

[philanderer] 16/10/2013 16:45

It`s an impressive 10 point swing for a change ;-)

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 16/10/2013 16:22

i just got some for that very reason. saw the dow and thought 'oh yeah CHG'

Good luck all

[philanderer] 16/10/2013 15:25

Tracking up well with the big start in the USA.

[fangorn2] 16/10/2013 13:18

I know change of FM often sees a spring clean of positions but why is the market assuming this will be the case viz Woodford's funds - the FM taking over has a similar investing style surely? Given the size of the fund and its popularity Invesco wouldn't want the new FM to take a hatchet to all the current and often sizeable positions???

[philanderer] 16/10/2013 12:58

Afternoon kiwi, it`s all a bit gloomy isn` it.... FT Alphaville saying there`s some huge Woodford positions to be unwound by Invesco - and that FTSE 250 exit is now looking odds-on - not good.

[kiwihope] 16/10/2013 12:51

Everything is still conspiring to push this down. US debt, Woodford leaving, etc. It gets harder to buy, even when the only thing that has changed is that the price has dropped further. Do those sellers know something I don't? Or am I just an idiot for missing the sell signs?

It's getting closer to my nominal top-up level. I was hoping to get next month's update before buying again. We will have to wait and see...

[philanderer] 15/10/2013 23:48

Fangorn mentioned last week that Neil Woodford overlooks many of Invesco`s funds - Invesco hold 25% of Chemring.

Announced today that Woodford is leaving Invesco - seems to coincide with the afternoon fall

"Woodford sends ripples though market"

The departure of the star fund manager hit a number of London-listed companies

Shares in those businesses in which Mr Woodford has built up significant holdings fell sharply in afternoon trade on concern about the potential consequences of his departure. BAE Systems, for example, lost 4.6 to 439.2p, Capita dropped 36½ to 970½p, Drax Group closed 20 lower at 639p and Rentokil Initial finished 3.2 cheaper at 107.9p.

Dealers attributed the falls to market worries that funds currently run by Mr Woodford may be hit by investor redemptions and so stakes would be sold down to satisfy demand. The popular manager has a loyal following in the investment community and his departure could prompt investors to withdraw money.

Traders added that his successor, Mark Barnett, may hold a different investment view to Mr Woodford and decide to trim back some holdings. Either way, the cutting of positions would put downward pressure on companies' share prices.

[philanderer] 15/10/2013 23:18

Investors Chronicle

tuesday 15th october


"Chemring shot down by US shutdown"

It's almost a year since chief executive Mark Papworth took command at Chemring (CHG) after a series of profit warnings forced out David Price. But while the new boss has made some big changes, the underlying business continues to struggle and has flushed out the first profit warning of Mr Papworth's reign.

Orders from the US are being held up while politicians haggle over the Federal budget, and Chemring has suffered further quality and production issues, particularly at countermeasures business Kilgore. A strong dollar is shrinking the value of US profits when converted into sterling, too. In all, management reckon this trio of events will wipe £8m off operating profit this year, and they expect next year to be even worse. Liberum Capital slashed underlying EPS estimates for this year by 16 per cent to 20.2p and by 24 per cent for 2014 to 19.9p. And with little covenant headroom on its loan notes, the broker thinks further dividend cuts are possible. Thankfully, the Middle East countermeasures contract did arrive in time, and details of a new business plan will be made public alongside a trading statement next month.

IC VIEW:

It's bad luck that the US shutdown came in the last month of Chemring's financial year, but operational failure is not, and the company already has a reputation for being accident prone. But after plunging over a quarter to 215p, the shares trade on 10.6 times forward earnings and are now - perhaps only temporarily - oversold. Hold.

Last IC view: Hold, 319p, 17 September 2013

[hvs] 15/10/2013 15:35

lol !!!!!!!

Why take it OUT ??? Why .

Watch OUT for yet another profit warning they always come in threes.

[broadwood] 15/10/2013 14:56

It might not be a good time to sell. They could get taken out at this level. They are much cheaper now than when the other approach was made.

[kiwihope] 15/10/2013 14:46

Now the yanks are getting pessimistic about the debt talks and ... CHG starts falling!

[garycook] 15/10/2013 11:48

Hopefully the share price has hit bottom at 210,so will not drop much more Kiwi,and if the Debt Ceiling is done then it should rise,but the November figures,will determine the share price after the announcement.Looking for 260,if figures are better than expected,all the bad news is out I hope.

[kiwihope] 15/10/2013 10:03

I haven't bought any more. It didn't drop far enough - my buy yesterday was around 230p. Too high as it turns out but I needed to see another 15-20% fall to buy more (195p or lower). Maybe it will get down to that in the future(!!) but I try and be disciplined so that I don't end up with too many. Ideally I also would like to see their closed period trading statement.

[philanderer] 15/10/2013 09:52

Small parcel for me too Gargoyle - hopefully not a dcb :-)

[gargoyle2] 15/10/2013 09:21

Couldn't resist some at this level. Great long term support. Tight stop loss though.

[philanderer] 15/10/2013 09:18

Hopefully good timing GC..... luck to you.

I`d like to buy back in but might well now wait for those november figures, or maybe 50/50

[garycook] 15/10/2013 09:09

Just purchased back 2306 at 215.4 after selling at 3.05 recently.Must be a value play here.