Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Chemring Group Plc LSE:CHG London Ordinary Share GB00B45C9X44 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.80p +0.41% 195.80p 194.00p 195.60p 196.20p 188.40p 188.40p 296,273 16:35:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Aerospace & Defence 297.4 -40.8 -37.8 - 548

Chemring Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1326 to 1349 of 1625 messages
Chat Pages: 65  64  63  62  61  60  59  58  57  56  55  54  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
14/10/2013
10:03
There's no doubt that the convenants are a worry, but I don't think they are an immediate one. Their next testing date is this month, presumably on full year figures. If there was a chance they would be breached I would have expected some statement in the trading release just made. It is after all price sensitive information, and they must know by now with only 2-weeks to go to year end. Of the two covenants the revolving credit facility looks the tightest. For October net debt to EBITDA has to be
kiwihope
14/10/2013
09:50
There's no doubt that the convenants are a worry, but I don't think they are an immediate one. Their next testing date is this month, presumably on full year figures. If there was a chance they would be breached I would have expected some statement in the trading release just made. It is after all price sensitive information, and they must know by now with only 2-weeks to go to year end. Of the two covenants the revolving credit facility looks the tightest. For October net debt to EBITDA has to be
kiwihope
14/10/2013
09:16
Morning kiwi , it`s the bank covenants that are the huge worry now. I doubt they`d get away with a rights issue unless it was incredibly discounted and that would really annihilate the shareprice.
philanderer
14/10/2013
09:09
These things always go in cycles. Being into American defence is obviously not a good thing at the moment, and for a while to come yet. But a year or so ago civil construction wasn't any good either. Before than property and housebuilders. But look at PSN and LAND and CLLN now. I believe CHG is a basically solid company with some problems that have only recently come to light, because it was in a previously booming sector which masked its shortcomings. The defence market is much tougher now and CHG had grown fat and lost its focus. These things take a while to fix. If I'm right then with good management, and maybe a bit of luck on the economic side, in a couple of years time the outlook might be looking better. On the other hand, if I'm wrong and CHG was never a 'good' company, then it will never recover. That is the risk...
kiwihope
14/10/2013
08:39
Liberum retaining 'hold' but whacking it`s target down from 270p to 205p
philanderer
12/10/2013
00:44
kiwi, a bit optimistic I know , but I was referring to this from Friday`s RNS.. clutching at straws for it to contain something a bit more positive than expected ;-) "..At the interim results presentation in June, Chemring announced that it was initiating a comprehensive planning process which would give a better understanding of both the markets in which we operate and our business strategy for the next three years. This is being prepared in conjunction with a detailed budgeting exercise for FY14. Early indications, given the continuing difficult market conditions, are that FY14 performance is likely to be less than the anticipated current year outturn. We will outline the initial findings of this process in a post close trading statement, which is expected to be released in November 2013"
philanderer
11/10/2013
22:49
Kiwihope. I agree with your method. I am not holding yet, but may start to dip my toe in on Monday and if it falls further may top up again.
jonntara
11/10/2013
16:58
phil ... you mean 2014!
kiwihope
11/10/2013
16:44
Can`t see where the upside comes from before the November trading statement, but will keep a close watch. Luck to all.
philanderer
11/10/2013
15:53
Get ready for another nastier warning. Them anal ysts say HOLD they would after they said BUY at £3.40 and above.
hvs
11/10/2013
15:25
We will have to agree to differ Salpara... I don't really care which way the share price is moving. I just try and buy low and sell high. I've never been any good at timing. I've bought before when the share price appears to have stabilised and started rising and I've thought all the bad news is out, only for it to fall again! So I now only look at the absolute prices and relevant news/data and buy if I think it's under-priced. If it falls another 15% or so I have another look and may buy more or sell the lot, depending on my assessment at the time.
kiwihope
11/10/2013
15:12
It is always better to miss the first 5-10% of any rise and know that you are buying into a rising stock than to try and pick the turning point. There are still uncertainties concerning the debt level/covenants here and if the share price were to drift back a bit more then it could well lose its FTSE 250 place which would put further selling pressure on if the tracker funds thought it was going out. All in all the risks still seem to be to the down side but I fully accept that there may be a bit of a bounce from today's low.
salpara111
11/10/2013
14:51
Trouble is, if you wait until things look to be improving the share price will already be on the way up. I have ridden this up twice now and sold, first when the aborted takeover bid was announced and a couple of months ago when it hit 300p. I reckon it was overvalued a bit at 300p so I top-sliced. I reckon it is undervalued now - forecasts are still for around 20p eps which is a PE of around 11. Considering the scope for improvement in trading, I don't think that is too rich. OK it may take a while, but I've found from experience it is usually better to buy the first time you think it's cheap, than wait and try and time an entry point. I'm sitting on a lot of cash having sold 50% of my holdings as the market's risen this year, so I have it to invest, with a good amount left over for other opportunities.
kiwihope
11/10/2013
14:35
Well, no dead kitty bounce yet! Still think that it may find support around the current level but don't see the point in taking a long stake now, better to wait and see what the next few months bring Vis a Vis convenant testing etc. I am keeping them on my low level watch list so will monitor from a distance going forward.
salpara111
11/10/2013
12:49
Let's just be patient and see in 1-2 years time.
kiwihope
11/10/2013
12:15
FT Alphaville .not good at all .. "covenants looking tight" Chemring Group PLC (CHG:LSE): Last: 223.30, down 61.1 (-21.48%), High: 246.10, Low: 216.70, Volume: 2.82m BE It's a multi-parter of a warning. PM Grim details here BE And do remember it's not the first. BE So we're blaming US shutdown ...... BE And forex, and Middle East flux BE But the big surprise is that Kilgore's still causing problems. PM Ah, is that it BE That's their flare factory. BE I seem to remember a rumour went around that one of their earlier profit warnings was really because it was raining more than usual on their flare testing ground. BE So they were, literally, damp squibs. BE Anyway, we're looking again at whether Chemring's going to breach covenants. BE Let me cut to Barclays for some context. BE We are clearly disappointed by the statement from Chemring this morning. The statement highlights a number of issues, which together are expected to reduce consensus EBITA by £8m for this year (yr end October) – equating to a 10% downgrade to the current Bloomberg consensus and early guidance for FY14E (Bloomberg EBITA consensus £86m), which would be below FY13E – so the downgrade will be at least 15%. We suspect it will be 15-25%. If nothing else this highlights just how low the visibility in the business is. We had hoped the new management team had worked towards trying to resolve some of these issues, but this shows the tough task in front of them. BE Management has offered no breakdown as to how the £8m impact to EBITA splits across the various issues. BE This will of course open up debate on the balance sheet. The indicated £8m reduction to operating profit in FY13E would reduce Bloomberg consensus EBITDA to £93.7m (our recently downgraded EBITDA for FY13E is £99m). The current Bloomberg consensus net debt for FY13E is £232m – clearly the £8m reduction to EBITA expectations will impact this and the company highlights issues with cash receipts in the Middle East as well – therefore consensus net debt could increase by 5% or more. This would suggest net debt/EBITDA at the end of FY13E could approach 2.6-2.8x. BE Chemring announced with its interim results that it had renegotiated its debt covenants (which are tested quarterly) earlier this year to: · Revolving credit facility (£230m expires Apr 2015): net debt/EBITDA 3.5x (Apr & Jul 13), 3.25x (Oct 13 & Jan 14). · Private placement ($405m + £12.5m, expires 2016-19): gross debt/EBITDA 3.5x (Apr13-Jan 14). These revert to 3.0x beyond this. The changes to earnings indicated in today's statement suggest that Bloomberg consensus FY14E EPS could fall to c. 19-21p (15-30% downgrade). Which would put the shares on a PER 13.5-15.0x and EV/EBITDA of 8.5x-9.5x. BE So, looking tight. Uncomfortably. BE Cazenove's thrown in the towel. BE Chemring's new management team is focused on delivering on improvements to the business, and we see the opportunity for more to come in time, but we believe investors will need to be patient as the legacy issues will take time to resolve and the expected improvement in financial performance is likely to be incremental rather than immediate. The reduction in our price target means that it is below the last close and we downgrade to Neutral from Overweight. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2013-10-11/
philanderer
11/10/2013
12:13
If you are a trader there could well be a technical bounce from 220 but I have a couple of other trades in mind which I feel are less risky so I am moving on. My target had always bee the long term support line at 220 it just took a while longer to get there than I had anticipated! I much prefer to take long positions but I just felt so strongly that this one was overvalued that I took a short position. I don't know how much the management is to blame but what was clear to see was that with the wind down in the Afghan conflict there was going to be less need for the type of consumables that CHG are involved in.
salpara111
11/10/2013
12:09
JP Morgan updated ..... retains 'neutral' drops target from 310p to 260p hxxp://www.ig.com/content/dam/publicsites/igcom/shared/Broker%20ratings/ukratings_111013.pdf
philanderer
11/10/2013
12:04
Top trading Salpara. Must say I`m tempted at 220p
philanderer
11/10/2013
11:53
Every turkey has its day.....I was beginning to wonder if I had called this one wrong.....I refer to my post 932 when I opened a short....closed it today for 220.....apparently I will be going skiing twice this winter after all! Given that they have effectively said that 2014 is going to be a turkey as well, why would you buy now? There may be a bounce off the technical support line which is pretty close now but there is no point in a buy and hold strategy. I always find it curious when people say " management recently bought at £3 so it must be ok" actually what it means is that management is alarmingly clueless!
salpara111
11/10/2013
11:29
And a cut in the dividend to reflect current events!
bookbroker
11/10/2013
11:26
Rights issue on the cards to prop up the balance sheet will be inevitable sooner rather than later, a good business but wind down of Many of Mid-Eastern operations no doubt having some effect, military cutbacks in US and other incidental issues as stated this morning.
bookbroker
11/10/2013
10:44
I bought 5000 at 230p. One of the Directors bought 50,000 at £3 recently and no doubt will buy more. It looks as if 2-3% of the company will be traded today.
ddahj
11/10/2013
10:25
I always remember one of Buffett's comments that you have to be prepared for a share price to drop 20% or more after you've bought it. If you buy at the bottom it's just plain luck. I bought at around 230p and it's still dropping. But it will probably come back one day (but nothing's certain).
kiwihope
Chat Pages: 65  64  63  62  61  60  59  58  57  56  55  54  Older
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