Chariot Share Discussion Threads

[fairenough11] 24/4/2013 08:42

True Ronan.

The good thing is about buying CHAR at this depressed price is that you know there is no hot money already IN awaiting a little rise before selling.Look how quiet this BB is,for instance.

This is just in Namibia,nevermind Mauritania/Morocco on top.

"Chariot says it has identified a potential find off southern Namibia and plans to process more seismic data at the site next year. Brazil's HRT Participacoes em Petroleo and Spain's Repsol also have drilling programmes in the country, and are increasing the number of wells there to 14 or 15 in the next 18 months, from 11 now, Mr Bottomley said.

"It's still an immature exploration province and it's a proven petroleum system. It took 22 wells in the North Sea to make the first discovery and about 26 in the Gulf of Mexico."

[ronan7] 24/4/2013 08:36

yep 11...its in their interests to push it on

also director buys wud pull others in

[fairenough11] 24/4/2013 08:32

ronan7,

options set at 27.5p,that's the first target.Maybe we will get some Director BUYS just to help us on our way.

[ronan7] 24/4/2013 08:25

niceish start to the day

can we push on to hold 19p bid

[fairenough11] 24/4/2013 07:27

PR now stepping up a Tad:-)


Chariot 'not giving up efforts' to find oil along Namibia coast
BY PAUL BURKHARDT, APRIL 24 2013, 06:05



Namibia is now drilling for oil in earnest
Oil-rich coastlines lure fuel giants
CHARIOT Oil & Gas, the UK explorer that failed to find crude oil in Namibia, is using information from its unsuccessful wells to get closer to making a discovery, CEO Larry Bottomley said this week.

"We learned technically an enormous amount from our wells and that has significantly refocused where it is that we're addressing our exploration," Mr Bottomley said in an interview in Namibia's capital, Windhoek.

"We happen to be in areas where there are elephants, so we're looking for giant fields."

Namibia has attracted explorers on a bet that its coastal shelf has similarities to Brazil, where the offshore Tupi find in 2007 was the largest in the Americas in three decades. Even with investment from Chariot and partners BP and Petroleo Brasileiro, commercial crude deposits have not been found and Namibia's sole gas field has sat idle since its discovery in 1974.

"Namibia is a frontier area: it is unproven to have material accumulations of hydrocarbons to date, but we believe that's just a function of drilling density and exploration maturity," Mr Bottomley said on Monday.

The CEO joined Guernsey, Channel Islands-based Chariot in 2000 as a nonexecutive director in charge of new ventures and took the top job last year.

The explorer owns blocks in three basins along Namibia's coast and announced plans last year to drill at least two wells in the country's central blocks. It has lost 88% of its market value since May 14 last year, when it failed to find oil at Tapir South, off northern Namibia.

In September, Chariot also failed to find commercial quantities of crude at Nimrod in the south, a prospect where it is still gathering data. "All it would take would be somebody to unravel the secret, what it is that makes Namibia work, and there'll be a whole significant follow-up potential," Mr Bottomley said.

Chariot says it has identified a potential find off southern Namibia and plans to process more seismic data at the site next year. Brazil's HRT Participacoes em Petroleo and Spain's Repsol also have drilling programmes in the country, and are increasing the number of wells there to 14 or 15 in the next 18 months, from 11 now, Mr Bottomley said.

"It's still an immature exploration province and it's a proven petroleum system. It took 22 wells in the North Sea to make the first discovery and about 26 in the Gulf of Mexico."

Chariot, which also has blocks in Mauritania and Morocco, is among companies boosting investment in exploration following a four-year increase in the price of crude.

While oil has now dropped below $100 a barrel, explorers undertaking high-risk projects such as Chariot are less discouraged because of the potential for large discoveries, according to Mr Bottomley.

"We're unashamed elephant hunters and we've got contracts that are commensurate with the risk that we're taking."

Mr Bottomley said the company was fully funded to do everything it needed to do in the next couple years.

[crosswire] 23/4/2013 10:25

According to data from U.S.-based oil resource certification company Degolyer and MacNaughton that was supplied by HRT, there is a 24.1 percent chance, on average, of finding the following volumes in the four blocks: 1.3 billion barrels in Wingat, 4.3 billion barrels in Murombe, 3.2 billion barrels in Moosehead and 1.3 billion barrels in Meerkat."The geology is beautiful. If we don't find oil in the first well, the next three present larger potential volumes and high chances of success," Mello said. "Four prospects, each with about a 25 percent chance of success means our chances are very good.""If we find oil in any of these prospects, the shares could easily go back to the 40 reais per share level," he added.

[royalalbert] 23/4/2013 10:23

Fully expect a bit (could be a lot) of a rise in the next two weeks, purely on anticipation.

[crosswire] 23/4/2013 10:19

Namibian Wingat whose drilling has reached 60% of the target of 4600 meters. Besides this, there are three additional wells to be explored.60% in 28 days, 100% in 19 days!!Come on HRT we need an oil strike!

[crosswire] 23/4/2013 07:19

Name Ticker Market
Cap
(US$m)
Block Name WI Partners in Block Uplift^
100mmb
Uplift^
500mmb
Uplift^
1 bn bbl


Jefferies
Rating/
PT


Chariot CHAR LN 62 Rabat Deep* 75% 759% 3795% 7589% Buy, 50p



Casablanca
Offshore/Safi*
75% 759% 3795% 7589%
Loukos* 75%

[crosswire] 23/4/2013 07:02

"It makes no sense. Investors lost patience and forgot that oil is not a short-term investment [...] Who sold his shares will regret, "said soft Mello, CEO of HRT.


Is that a hint from the CEO of drill news???????

[crosswire] 23/4/2013 07:00

Amazon and oil gas in Namibia ignite hope HRT (HRTP3)

Date: 22/04/2013 @ 21:48

Source: Brazil - ADVFN Reporter
Stock: HRT Petroleo ON (HRTP3)
Quote: 4.66 0.1 (2.19%) @ 23:18




Amazon and oil gas in Namibia ignite hope HRT (HRTP3)



If the connection until last year was not the best for HRT (BOV: HRTP3), the present moment is much anticipation. After reaching the maximum story in 2011, the Brazilian oil company experienced a bitter period of decline for their actions, reaching the milestone of 90% low. Just last month, however, the numbers are impressive: 33.5% high.

According to the president of the organization, the table rushed sales initiated by investor concern was somewhat hasty. "It makes no sense. Investors lost patience and forgot that oil is not a short-term investment [...] Who sold his shares will regret, "said soft Mello, CEO of HRT.

Hope for the oil rests on the discovery of possible natural gas reserves in the Amazon and the exploration well offshore Namibian Wingat whose drilling has reached 60% of the target of 4600 meters. Besides this, there are three additional wells to be explored.

[fairenough11] 23/4/2013 06:16

"Worth multiples of current Mckcap if successful"

Morocco--cheers jimmy iii

[crosswire] 22/4/2013 17:25

HRT Participacoes (HRTPY) Could Be A Positive Black Swan

By GuruFocus, March 24, 2013, 08:24:14 PM EDT
Vote up

I became interested in Brazil's HRT Participacoes em Petroleo SA ( HRTPY ) when I noticed Southeastern Asset Management had a large position; currently over 14% of the shares outstanding. HRT is not a stock for everyone because there is a substantial chance of losing all of your money, but as I argue below, I believe that the risk is more than offset by the opportunity of making crazy multiples on your money. I believe that HRT is an ideal candidate for Nassim Nicholas Taleb's barbell strategy where you invest 90% of your portfolio in safe instruments and invest 10% of your portfolio in black swans. However, don't invest more in HRT than you are willing to lose.

HRT Participacoes is an oil and gas exploration company with no debt, but no production either. For purposes of keeping this article simple, I will assume that the three offshore wells being drilled this year in Namibia are the only prospects that matter. Independent third party reserve engineers, DeGoyler and MacNoughton (D&M), have made the following assessment of these prospects:

Wingat - Chance of Success = 27%; P50 = 778 mmbo; P10 = 2112 mmbo (mmbo = million barrels of oil)

Murombe - Chance of Success = 23%; P50 = 2877 mmbo

Moosehead - Chance of Success = 25%; P50 = 1512 mmbo

Before the DeGoyler and MacNoughton report was performed, HRT had estimated that the P10 values for Wingat, Murombe, and Moosehead were 4300 mmbo, 10700 mmbo, and 5500 mmbo, respectively. Notice that D&M's estimation of P10 for the Wingat prospect is approximately half of HRT's estimation. D&M's estimation of the P10 values for Murombe and Moosehead have not been disclosed, but for purposes of this article I will assume Murombe and Moosehead have P10 values of half of the HRT estimates. This assumption appears to be roughly right when compared to D&M's P50 values.

OTHER ASSUMPTIONS:

1) A natural gas find is worth zero. The nearby Kudu gas field was discovered in the 1970s and has yet to be produced.

2) If successful, the prospects have a 50% chance of finding oil and a 50% chance of finding gas. These are oil prospects so by definition the odds are greater than 50% that success means oil, but I don't know how much greater so I will assume 50%.

3) If a prospect is an oil success, there is a 50% chance of recovering at least the P50 value

4) If a prospect is an oil success, there is a 10% chance of recovering at least the P10 value

5) If a prospect is an oil success, the value of a barrel of oil in the ground is $7

PROBABILITIES:

Chance of Murombe P50 oil success = 0.23 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 5.75%

Chance of Murombe P10 oil success = 0.23 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 1.15%

Chance of Moosehead P50 oil success = 0.25 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 6.25%

Chance of Moosehead or Murombe P50 oil success = 1 - [(1 - 0.0575) x (1 - 0.0625)] = 11.6%

Chance of Moosehead or Murombe oil success = 1 - [(1 - 0.23 x 0.5) x (1 - 0.25 x 0.5)] = 21%

INTRINSIC VALUE:

Murombe P50 oil success = 2877 mmbo x $7/bbl x 86% ownership / 645 million fully diluted shares = $26.82 per share

Murombe P10 oil success = 0.5 x 10700 mmbo x $7/bbl x 86% ownership / 645 million FD shares = $49.93 per share

Moosehead P50 oil success = 1512 mmbo x $7/bbl x 79% ownership / 645 million FD shares = $12.96 per share



What about Wingat? Murombe and Moosehead are over 600 kilometers apart and are in separate sedimentary basins, so I believe these two prospects are independent of each other. Wingat and Murombe are close enough to each other that I do not believe that they are completely independent of each other (particularly, source risk and oil versus gas risk). However, if one were to assume that Wingat and Murombe are completely independent of each other then the point on the above graph representing 21% chance of oil success would be moved over to 33% chance of oil success.

CONCLUSION

Using the assumptions in this article:

The chance of failure is substantially greater than the chance of oil success.

There is approximately an 11% chance of an intrinsic value of at least $13 per share before year end. The Kelly Criterion recommends wagering 4% of your bankroll based on this datapoint and the current share price of $0.92. But wait, there's more!

There is approximately a 6% chance of an intrinsic value of at least $26 per share before year end.

There is approximately a 1% chance of an intrinsic value of at least $50 per share before year end.

If HRT's P10 value of 10.7 billion barrels for Murombe were to be achieved, then the intrinsic value would be $100 per share before year end.

Don't bet more than you are willing to lose!


Read more:

[crosswire] 22/4/2013 12:49

iii10:21 Re: UBS Downgraderobbiepaul22Re UBS--Interesting timing don't you think?HRT close to announcing a 2nd Farm In partner BEFORE WINGAT result.HRT within a couple of weeks of a potential Oil Find.Nimrod final report now due.Brazilian blocs bid which could mean Char have already sealeda Large Farm Out deal in Mauritania or Namibia/Central/Northern blocs.Agenda???Nahhh:-))))RP.

[crosswire] 22/4/2013 12:48

iii10:21 Re: UBS Downgraderobbiepaul22Re UBS--Interesting timing don't you think?HRT close to announcing a 2nd Farm In partner BEFORE WINGAT result.HRT within a couple of weeks of a potential Oil Find.Nimrod final report now due.Brazilian blocs bid which could mean Char have already sealeda Large Farm Out deal in Mauritania or Namibia/Central/Northern blocs.Agenda???Nahhh:-))))RP.

[salpara111] 22/4/2013 09:36

Nice to see a director being given a boat load of stock options which put him "in the money" at 27.3p !
A rather better situation than most shareholders I would imagine!

[stockriser] 22/4/2013 07:15

Ronan - HRTP3

[ronan7] 22/4/2013 06:43

stupid question I no

whats hrt epic
type it in a range of them comes up

thx....me

[belisce6] 21/4/2013 20:33

thought it was previously calculated that by end of first week in may, the hole would be completed... in terms of actually drilling to total depth... so should b close as WG indicates...