Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[novicetrade68] 03/10/2018 16:53

Sorry for a possible stupid question, but will this share now go straight ex-dividend tomorrow morning 8am? I was rereading the last RNS and got a little bit confused as it states that a divi will be paid to holders on the register October 5th.

[king suarez] 03/10/2018 13:06

I am exactly back at break-even, after topping up from my 'ill timed' first purchase around £2.85 a few months back :)

Looks like we have completed a mini bowl formation on the chart. Onward to £3+ now please!

[podgyted] 02/10/2018 19:47

Rio's take on copper - mainly about them but thereis some general stuff.

[cflather2000] 01/10/2018 19:46

His dividend prediction is wrong I think. It's Based on half year figures each half year since policy change. Assuming first half is same as second half, expecting another 6.5 at year end

[zangdook] 01/10/2018 15:05

Why is he quoting the dividend in US cents? Must be some kind of nut.

[aishah] 01/10/2018 09:45

Top shares for October

Paul Summers: Central Asia Metals
My top pick is small-cap copper play Central Asia Metals (LSE: CAML). Thanks to the US/China trade shenanigans, many commodities – and the share prices of those producing them – have fallen heavily in price over recent months. Central Asia Metals is no exception.

Towards the end of last month, however, sentiment appeared to be changing, spurred on by repeated warnings about a forthcoming supply deficit of the red metal. There’s no way of telling whether this rally will last but, on 7 times earnings, the stock already seems cheap.

It’s also a cracking dividend payer, with this year’s expected 20 US cents per share return equating to a yield of well in excess of 6%.

[mount teide] 30/9/2018 17:03

Zambia is one of the fastest-growing refined copper producers in the world, backed by rising mining output and ongoing government support, says BMI Research - it is a regional leader and important global player.

With the costs of operating copper mines in Zambia and DRC forecast to rise significantly following the announcement of a raft of new taxes - it will reduce profitability and the pace of future production development capital expenditure as the global industry enters a long period of supply deficit.

[coxsmn] 29/9/2018 19:28

We go ex dividend here 4th Oct.

[eeza] 29/9/2018 17:36

"except for actually tackling the alleged corruption, which some believe isn't a viable scenario."

Lol !!!!

[mount teide] 29/9/2018 12:51

Political corruption continues to plague sub Saharan Africa with the mining industry once again bearing the brunt of the self inflicted fiscal turmoil - as Zambia now follows the lead of the DRC by unveiling a raft of new taxes on the mining sector, which are likely to push up industrial metal prices globally as a result of leading to a reduction in capital investment in Africa's largest and globally important mining Nation's.


Copper Prices Rise as Zambia Hikes Mining Taxes to Fill Gaps in 2019 Budget - Sputnik Int / Africa today

'Zambia’s government unveiled a flurry of new taxes on the mining sector starting next year, which could cripple the country’s output and exports, and push global prices of industrial metals higher.

Africa's second-largest copper producer moved to increase the fiscal burden on mining companies amidst ongoing fiscal turmoil and mass protests against alleged government corruption. The move is expected to add to the upward pressure on global industrial metal prices, which have recently been dampened by US tariffs and a strong dollar.

Zambia's Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe said in an address to the nation's parliament on Friday that her department would impose new taxes and increase royalty payments for the mining sector in an attempt to balance next year's budget.

Mwanakatwe said the effort would help reduce governmental debt and improve living conditions in the country in response to the ongoing anti-corruption protests.

"In 2019, we are faced with higher debt obligations as past loans fall due, thereby constraining fiscal space for other expenditures," she said.

Zambia's fiscal deficit is expected at 7.4% of GDP this year compared to the previous expectations of 6.1%. This comes as US President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium hampered the prices of other industrial metals as well, and Zambia is heavily reliant on its copper exports.

Mwanakatwe said higher mining taxes would bring the fiscal deficit down to 6.5% of GDP next year. Her department also expects Zambia's economic growth to be 4 percent next year — compared to the World Bank's forecast of 3.6%.

Zambia's finance minister said mining royalties — currently ranging between 4-6% would increase by 1.5&. A new 10% tax will be levied on copper producers when the metal's price is above $7,500 per ton.

Moreover, the Finance Ministry introduced a new 15% export tariff on precious metals, along with a new 5 percent duty on copper and cobalt exports.

Mwanakatwe delivered her $7.1 billion budget in the Parliament, saying that roughly 25% of this budget, or $2 billion, will be financed through external borrowing. The kwacha, Zambia's national currency, dropped 16.7% against its major peers this month alone, becoming the worst performing global currency during the period.

The ongoing fiscal turmoil has weighed on Zambia's investment appeal and broader economic sustainability. Additionally, poor living standards have enraged parts of the country's population, who have actively protested the government over the past few days.

"We are tired of hearing about scandal after scandal concerning the misuse of our national resources," Laura Miti, an organizer with Zambia Demands Accountability, said.

Zambia's Western donors have recently cut off some of their lending to the country amidst concerns of high-government corruption, the nation's mounting debt, and allegations of rampant "hidden borrowing.".

The UK and Finland froze their transfers to Zambia earlier this month, after it was revealed up to $4 million invested into the country's social welfare system might have been misappropriated.

For its part, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has taken a break from discussing Zambia's next assistance package due to the country's rising debt and a massive fiscal shortfall.

Albeit a rise in taxes could help partially offset Zambia's fiscal issues, economists say mining companies operating in the country could take a blow. Global prices of industrial metals are under pressure in the face of a realignment in global supply chains, whilst higher taxes and duties will further decimate miners' profits.

Several international miners, including First Quantum, Glencore, and Vedanta Resources, have opposed Zambia's plans, citing higher operational costs and lower profitability and rendering the government fiscal planning hardly feasible.

But the finance minister said Zambia's national wealth should be redistributed amongst its population on the basis of greater fairness and equality.

"As mineral resources are a depleting resource, it is vital to structure an effective fiscal regime for the mining sector to ensure that Zambians benefit from the mineral wealth our country is blessed with," Mwanakatwe said.

Critics have argued higher taxes on the mining sector could cost Zambia jobs and — in the long run — exports revenues could decrease due to lower production. However, the government doesn't appear to have other options — except for actually tackling the alleged corruption, which some believe isn't a viable scenario.

[arf dysg] 27/9/2018 16:26

"some were buying at above 140p"

I do hope they were buying at above 140p, or there's some monkey business going on.

[eeza] 27/9/2018 16:18

MT, yes I agree with what you say.
Arf - some were buying at above 140p this morning. It was those I was referring to.


Edit: Also worth noting that the share price is 'pregnant' with 6.5p, due to give birth next Thursday 4 Oct.

[eeza] 27/9/2018 16:15

MT, yes I agree with what you say.
Arf - some were buying at above 140p this morning. It was those I was referring to.

[arf dysg] 27/9/2018 15:56

"sizeable loss" ? from maybe 235p to 231p ? That's about 1.6%.

The week-to-week ups and downs in the trend are bigger than that. In other words, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

[mount teide] 27/9/2018 15:54

eeza - if they're investors they will probably be more interested in where the share price is likely to be in 2-3 years not hours!

[eeza] 27/9/2018 15:50

Share Mag's followers, buying in earlier, already sitting on sizeable loss today.

[junior21] 27/9/2018 08:18

Tipped in Shares Mag this morning.

[podgyted] 26/9/2018 18:38

SP Angel this morning:-

"
• LME copper falls for the 3rd day, extending the drop from 2-month high at the close of last week, as Chinese traders release supply ahead of the week-long Golden Week national holiday despite signs of rising demand from Chile. The metal fell -0.6% after closing +4.6% at $6,363/t on Friday, the highest since July 9.
• According to Huatai Futures Ltd. Chinese spot premium are falling as domestic traders dump cargoes ahead of the holiday, which begins this weekend. The short term depression is reflective of market tightness as supply talks for annual contracts from Codelco have begun weeks earlier. As a consequence of rising demand and limiting supplies, Chile’s state-owned Codelco has started contract negotiations that traditionally begin in October or November.
• The negotiations are ongoing as global copper stockpiles fall and premiums in China rise. Codelco is said to be securing higher fees even as prices for the industrial metal continue to weaken over the past six months amid concerns that trade tensions between China and the US could impact global growth. It is suggested that premiums for copper deals with clients in China and the US are so far 15-17% higher than last year. • In Europe, Codelco inked 2019 copper-cathode supply contracts at a premium of $98/t over benchmark prices, the highest since 2015. The company has also signed a contract with a Chinese client at a physical delivery premium of $88/t over London Metal Exchange prices, compared with $75/t last year.
• In June, Chief Executive Officer Nelson Pizarro suggested that Codelco would complete its annual sales talks quickly. “In the 2016 campaign, we sold all our copper in four days. I think now we will sell it in half a day”. • With the metal in such high demand, the company want to sign contracts with fewer but more strategic clients, and its prioritizing those who agree to more flexible conditions.
• Improved China demand and declining mine output due to price consolidation is expected to result in better supply-demand balance in H2 compared with H1, as Argonaut Securities (Asia) Ltd. analyst notes Chinese refined copper demand climbed +4.8% in first 8 months of the year vs. 1.7% in the full year 2017."

Seems to bode well for copper prices for the remainder of the year.

[aishah] 26/9/2018 10:25

$CAML CEO Nigel Robinson discusses H1 2018 with Peel Hunt mining analyst, Peter Mallin-Jones #mining #copper #zinc

[garycook] 26/9/2018 09:37

26 Sep Central Asia Metals PLC Peel Hunt Buy 235.75 350.00

[mount teide] 25/9/2018 10:24

rogash - that was the result of the copper market finding a bottom at the end of a brutal 6 year recession that saw new production development investment fall off a cliff after 2012 and some high operating cost mines either close or get temporarily shut-in, after the copper price more than halved to a decade low in H1/2016.

Demand during that entire period and since has continued to grow at circa 2-2.5% per annum. The rising copper price post H1/2016 has failed to generate sufficient new production(despite some shut-in mines reopening) to meet the growth in demand, resulting in a supply-usage deficit in 2017 that further depleted stock inventory.

The only way warehouse stock levels are going to build is if supply increases above demand - and with supply deficits forecast as far as the eye can see over the next half decade or more, that is unlikely to happen anytime soon unless the copper price spikes dramatically. A copper price averaging above $3.25 should however be sufficient to trigger the development of enough new production to at least slow down the rate of supply-usage deficit that is forecast to rapidly escalate over the next 3-5 years.

The supply-usage deficit by 2025 is currently estimated at 5m tonnes - a hair-raising 23% of current global production! To put this in persecutive circa 400,000 tonnes per annum of production is required to be classified as one of the world's 10 largest copper mines - suggesting the equivalent of 12 mines capable of getting into the World's top ten will need to be put into production over the next 6 years to meet the estimated growth in demand. I can say with complete certainty, there is more chance of Dianne Abbott winning the Grand National riding side saddle on a Shetland pony than that happening!

AIMHO/DYOR

[rogash] 25/9/2018 07:38

Mount Teide, the only trouble is that when the stocks were very low in 2016 the price for copper was also very low according to Kitco's 5year chart.

[plmval] 24/9/2018 17:27

How to get back a lost $10B: Kenges Rakishev Bank's Tale In Europe's Biggest Alleged Fraud. Bank 46.6%-owned by its chairman Kenges Rakishev no less. As always do your own due diligence & not be misled by unsubstantiated verbose.

[mount teide] 24/9/2018 16:25

LME Copper stocks have nearly halved over the last six months from 400,000t to 215,000t. The decade low is 165,000t from August 2014.

LME Zinc and Lead stocks are also close to decade lows.