Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[johnrxx99] 18/7/2019 07:27

Fingers crossed on the open. Could take a wallop. The only upside is declining GBP.

[podgyted] 18/7/2019 07:24

45:55 split gives top end of guidance based on H1 production. So steady as she goes with some optimism in there.

Wish they'd just come out with the 2020 & 2021 guidance (first it was H1, then in these - now have to wait for interim accounts)- really hard to feel confident here with this hanging over your head.

[ukgeorge] 18/7/2019 07:18

Yes pretty average results. Dividend announced 31st July. No cost data.Guidance untouched h2 set to be key

[jfishy55] 18/7/2019 07:17

"Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari") produced 117,913 ounces of gold in Q2, bringing production for the first half of the year ("H1") to 234,096 ounces and in line with the Company's 45:55 production weighted guidance split for the year"

Bang on target for 520koz this year.

No news of solar.
Dividend to be announced on 31st.

Interesting results, Doropo looking good, half of waste turned out to be ore which they then processed rather than higher grade ore.

All in all, I think this confirms CEY is back on track and hints towards a strong H2.

[qs99] 18/7/2019 07:11

slightly underwhelming, but positive IMO. Views?

[kennyp52] 17/7/2019 21:56

hope so ... slowly and in lots of pain you weirdo stalker 👀

[plat hunter] 17/7/2019 21:11

FFS ha ha ha omg i'm dying. What a sycophant

[kennyp52] 17/7/2019 20:39

So a few will have taken their profit today ... just in case . Who can blame them after the last main RNS . I kept 100% in as feel there are just too many positive elements so fingers crossed . You never truly know with this share 🤔

POG up again and back to $1425 !

[larry laffer] 17/7/2019 16:43

Probably easier to wait for the interims but

Because there has been a decent increase in gold price 50% of which flows straight to the bottom line it is safe to assume at least another $4m attributable to FCF. If you wish to be more accurate you would need daily gold sold vs price achieved.

I would be happy with an interim divi at the same level as 2018 final divi. Even better would be a bumper gold processed figure for Q2.

And an improved share price thrown in.

[jfishy55] 17/7/2019 15:47

Good point casual - I'm now looking for a max of 3c for the dividend.
I could make a deduction for capex if the solar plant goes ahead but I think that will be paid for out of reserves.

I didn't use AISC in my calculations, just worked from FCF for Q1 as I figured that would be easier.

[ken tennis] 17/7/2019 15:11

Ow and with a diseas backing it up

[ken tennis] 17/7/2019 15:10

Crunchy yes like it good humours what’s required not continual ranting 365 days a year

[creditcrunchies] 17/7/2019 14:30

So one alias talking to another alias but the same person. I did wonder if all arguments on here are just one person having a laff

[trader365] 17/7/2019 11:05

It's the same idiot talking to himself

[casual47] 17/7/2019 10:48

Need to deduct 3% royalty and 45% profit share from the extra slice provided by a higher gold price.

The AISC also doesn't include non-sustaining costs which would reduce FCF but I have no idea what they could be.

[phillis] 17/7/2019 10:48

Chuckles bros in action
Usual irrelevant stuff

[jfishy55] 17/7/2019 10:37

Thanks Larry,

My memory suggested PoG for forecasts was $1250oz & as it has been over $1400 for a while I though $1350 might do...however, given that it does affect the FCF quite significantly I think a better look is in order.

I had a look on Kitco which suggests the average PoG in 2019 has been $1315 (I suspect, if I removed July figures that would fall to your 1305).

Re-doing my figures for $1250 to $1305 gives about 3.5c

I'm hoping for more than 118koz as well - anything over would be a bonus as 118 is at the top of CEYs guidance.

I think the catalyst for the share price will be the dividend...I think people are looking for clear signs that the negatives are behind the company & a return to the divs of 2017 & 2018 is on the cards.

[joshuam] 17/7/2019 08:50

Up I think

[larry laffer] 17/7/2019 08:46

Fishy

Average gold price for H! Is $1305, the $100oz you used which equates to $1369 is way too high.

I am hoping for 123k for Q2 v your 118k.

SP needs a damn good update to move the price as today will be a down day I think.

[kennyp52] 17/7/2019 08:41

Good morning Ken tennis . GLEN has been disappointing .. potential claims against them holding the share price down as far as I understand. 1 good RNS and 300+ I reckon . Been trading CEY constantly with Stevedaytrader doing the same picking up some nice 2% every other day. Been quite predictable but the RNS coming tomorrow and hoping it’s good and will drive the price . ATB

[stevedaytrader] 17/7/2019 08:29

If 480 amendment is correct markets haven't reacted to it, so hopefully red herring/error. Tomorrow is the day … fingers crossed for all.

[jfishy55] 17/7/2019 06:49

Q2 Expectations:
I'm looking for 118koz (add that to Q1 output and we get the stated 45% production for H2 at the higher end of 520koz)

Interim Dividend:
Q1 FCF was $13.9m
Q2 Assuming FCF of $14.1m (prot rata FCF for 118koz)
Add in (a very rough guess) of $100oz higher gold sold price for 230koz, $23m
FCF: 13.9+14.1+23=$51m
Divide by shares in issue to get 4.4c per share.

Of course that would be a maximum and some FCF will be kept for H2 but unless there have been upsets it seems CEY should announce a good interim dividend - possibly the same as last years final.

If anyone spots any errors in my figures please post them, thanks.

Not sure about that news report of changes from 490-520 to 480-520, hopefully a mistake (although the 480 figure is mentioned twice). Bit worrying, but we will know tomorrow!

[casual47] 16/7/2019 20:01

Looks like guidance will be confirmed at 480-520k oz, according to yesterday's article in Youm7, link here:



At the annual results the guidance was 490-520k oz so they have given themselves a bit more room at the lower end.