Cenkos Securities Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 16/7/2021 19:22

Well it looks like they have finally got the US Solar Fund and Round Hill Music placings away, along with a couple of IPO's. In an ideal world they would have wanted these in the H1 numbers. Net outcome is a lower H1 profit but a very strong start to H2 and so full year forecasts still on. Overall, fairly positive.

[speedsgh] 16/7/2021 08:15

Further to post #3834. Round Hill Music (RHM). Successfully raised gross proceeds of USD86.5m in C share placing. Target was minimum USD50m. Cenkos acting as sole bookrunner/financial adviser...

[topvest] 13/7/2021 20:01

Yes, doing a bit better now. These are probably the intended June deals coming through later than planned. Probably due to accountant report delays given the delays being experienced in the accounting firms.

[speedsgh] 13/7/2021 07:54

GENinCode plc. Intention to float on AIM. Placing to raise £17m. Cenkos acting as joint broker alongside Stifel Nicolaus Europe...

[topvest] 06/7/2021 21:50

Well the long awaited first AIM float of the year has arrived. It looks a decent and reasonably high quality one. I've not looked at the prospectus but likely to be £1-2m of fees for Cenkos you would imagine.

[rainmaker] 06/7/2021 13:25

Good to see the share price tick up. Over the years, since its inception in 2004, Cenkos has returned £115.1mln to shareholders. They have over a 100 corporate clients and last year despite well documented problems for all, they still managed to raise £1.1bln for clients and the Company's net cash rose by approximately £14mln yet Cenkos Securities is a Company with a market capitalisation, net of cash, of ............£12.6mln??!!

AIMHO, DYOR as I have done mine

regards

[speedsgh] 06/7/2021 07:10

Lords Group Trading. Intention to float on AIM. £52m placing (£30m primary, £22m secondary). Cenkos acting as Nomad & sole broker/bookrunner...

[mattboxy] 05/7/2021 10:04

Quepassa genuine question- why do you remove your posts?

[rainmaker] 02/7/2021 19:59

Hi QuePassa, if you're a holder IMHO you just have to stick with it. "buy low, sell high" as the old Wall Street adage goes, simple in theory but more difficult in practice.Presumably you've done the first bit now you just have to wait and be patient for the company's performance to return to more typical levels of trading activity. Under normal market conditions Cenkos is an excellent Company but they've had external problems that are not of their making but now they've overcome them and IMHO their outlook is bright. IMHO you just need to give them time and not be frightened,bored,distracted, frustrated or misled into liquidating your holding because IMHO they're worth a great deal more than their current share price and all you have to do is wait.

If you're not familiar with Ben Graham's entertaining allegory(a story with a bigger meaning) "Mr Market" I would definitely have a read, as it will be a revelation and change your whole outlook and attitude towards the Stockmarket. Let me try to find a copy and post it here.

Good Luck

regards

[rainmaker] 02/7/2021 18:46

Re technical analysis, IMHO fundamentals are the absolute king, no question. I believe Cenkos corporate finance department that deals with IPOs, the bulk of the business and the main profit driver at approx 75% of turnover, has a very bright future and as I expected, we have struck a trade deal with the EU(with a large trade surplus with the UK, they couldn't afford not to)and Covid 19 virus is now under control so I'm confident about Cenkos prospects.

I know technical analysis inside out, as I have been using it for a number of years and I will use it when appropriate and relevant as I find it useful for timing trades and spotting confirmation of opportunities that the Market will miss. For example I have numerous holdings in Hong Kong stock exchange listed business where for several reasons, I expected a substantial rise in the share price. The share price of this Company was trading at historically very low levels, bumping along the bottom with little interest and small daily volume then one day, it broke into new low ground but then rallied to close above the previous day's high-what technicians refer to as a key or acute reversal, a powerful technical indicator that a sudden trend reversal is imminent and it did it on, and was validated by, so called "explosive" volume, 4 times the three month daily average and I immediately starting buying and within a few days or so, the share price had doubled and a month to six weeks it had gone up three fold........

regards

[rainmaker] 02/7/2021 16:38

I think Cenkos previous problems makes sense, if you understand that IPOs dried up when we had the shock EU referendum vote to leave in June 2016(freedom day, that was a great day!) it created enormous doubt and uncertainty then there was a petition with 3mln+ signatorees for another vote to reverse the decision then you had PM Teresa May going to the Country to increase her majority and flopping then trying and failing to get acts through parliament. Its very understandable that Companies would not want to come to the market with this incredible uncertainty and no trade deal, are we staying or leaving the EU and if so when and on what terms and conditions?

I think its very important that Investors understand Companies and their markets and the various factors impacting upon their trading performance.

regards

[rainmaker] 02/7/2021 16:23

Thanks Ken, I believe as a long standing Stockmarket Value Investor, its very important to think logically and rationally with sound reasoning,think long term and try to base your decisions on hard facts and to ignore short term news or lack of news eg IPOs which I consider to be "noise" and an unwelcome distraction but this noise sometimes creates great opportunities.

I am reminded of the Warren Buffett quote "To a Man with a Hammer everything looks like a Nail". I can't blame anyone checking new IPOs on a daily basis because you have access to that information and you're a shareholder and you're naturally interested in this Company's progress but I believe its dangerous to do so since you are studying the short term in detail and isolation when its the long term trend that matters. With an outstanding trading history, I believe that you have to put your faith and trust in the Company's long term track record and give them the benefit of the doubt. I think they have earned that right.

Try to focus on a £1 coin that you have bought for a 50 pence piece and be very tenacious and determined to sell at its true worth.


regards

[brucie5] 02/7/2021 15:55

Brucie5. You might well disagree but I’m not sure charts are the best guide to decision making for Cenkos. It’s the amount and value of new business wins that counts and charts can’t predict that. Rainmaker’s reasoning has persuaded me to continue to hold at least until they next update.
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Ken, charts are just part of my tool box. But I wouldn't buy a share without looking long and hard at what they might be trying to tell me. I know they can mislead, particularly over a long term view where extra shares have been issued. But I would feel completely blind without them, and frankly, don't know how I used to do so. Same would go for Stocko, which is another, still more important pair of eyes, afaic!

[kenmitch] 02/7/2021 15:48

Thanks Rainmaker.

I agree with everything in your post and thanks for reminding me of the obvious plus points which were the key reasons why I bought in the first place. And the share has doubled so I’ve no complaints. The key reason then, and you’ve reminded again today , was that the cash pile meant the decent business was in the share price for nothing! And even now it still near enough is.

I had hoped for a return to the sort of profits they used to make, and hence my disappointment at lack of placings, IPO’s etc, but they are winning enough to more than justify the current share price.

Brucie5. You might well disagree but I’m not sure charts are the best guide to decision making for Cenkos. It’s the amount and value of new business wins that counts and charts can’t predict that. Rainmaker’s reasoning has persuaded me to continue to hold at least until they next update.

[brucie5] 02/7/2021 15:19

Rainmaker2 Jul '21 - 15:08 - 3863 of 3863
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Thanks Brucie, IMHO you shouldn't be in a hurry to sell, wouldn't you rather sell at 240p or 360p than 120p?
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Err, yes, most definitely; but just trying to set a medium term target after which will review. The longer term chart does indeed go up much further...

[rainmaker] 02/7/2021 15:08

Thanks Brucie, IMHO you shouldn't be in a hurry to sell, wouldn't you rather sell at 240p or 360p than 120p? Just leave it as you make the really serious money in the Stockmarket by sleeping and doing nothing. Warren Buffett never became the worlds richest man through day trading!

regards

[brucie5] 02/7/2021 14:27

Rainmaker2 Jul '21 - 14:18 - 3861 of 3861
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I'm almost certainly in a minority...
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But not alone. Good value (91 on Stocko) combined with momentum here, and a chart that potentially goes a lot further up as the IPO markets revive. And a 4+ divi to be getting on with.

From Stocko:
"Josef Lakonishok Momentum is a strategy that uses price and earnings momentum to identify undervalued companies just at the point when the market is starting to recognise them. It is inspired by detailed research by academic and fund manager Josef Lakonishok, who co-wrote the paper Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk. The strategy combines value and momentum factors, including the price-to-earnings ratio, relative strength and earnings surprises."
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To my untrained eye, the chart is looking increasingly like a slingshot, which could take the share price up to £1 - 1.20 level, which is the 3/4 year high. I will be endeavouring to hold till then.

[rainmaker] 02/7/2021 14:18

I'm almost certainly in a minority, in thinking that Cenkos Securities at current prices, is a great opportunity but that doesn't bother me as you can't obtain market beating returns by agreeing with the consensus. You just have to think and act independently, think about what makes sense and try to base you opinions on facts.

regards

[rainmaker] 02/7/2021 13:55

Hi Ken, I share your concerns but I really think we all have to give Cenkos the benefit of the doubt. I say have faith and let their track record speak for itself as they have raised some £21bln in funding for Companies and returned 278p+ a share to shareholders over the years so I'm not watching new IPOs on a daily or weekly basis but rather thinking longer term and understanding that at current levels, after stripping out its £32.7mln net cash, you're paying the equivalent of just £11mln for a Company that made £30mln pre tax profits in 2015 and £23mln 2016 before Brexit induced paralysis took hold and IPOs dried up.

IMHO paying circa £11mln for a business that is capable of making £30mln in a year, that's really some deal.Make no mistake Cenkos IMHO is an outstanding business, in previous years it has consistently return on capital employed in the 60%s and the Brexit fiasco has conspired to create a lovely opportunity. Cenkos had their first ever loss a few years ago but under normal market conditions this is a very profitable business that throws off cash.Of course, now we have agreed a trade deal with the EU at the end of last year, IPOs are back with a bang and we had the best start to a year since 2007. In my estimation, the Alternative Investment Market, in which which Cenkos are a leading Broker, will always have strong demand from Companies for listings due to much lower barriers to entry, sharply reduced running costs and light touch regulation.


Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

AIMHO, DYOR as I have done mine

regards

[kenmitch] 02/7/2021 12:25

Bidstack!

Good news obviously but ......Bidstack, which looks a very poor hope and not much else share. There are so many IPOs and placings and Cenkos are still not winning enough of them. Enough to justify the current share price but not for the 120p target some of us were hoping for. It’s tempting to take the profits....but the fear with doing that is if it’s just ahead of a series of quality wins. Best to give it at least another month?

[tanneg] 01/7/2021 18:26

Cenkos is acting as broker in connection with the £10 million placing for Bidstack

[speedsgh] 28/6/2021 10:14

Cenkos appointed Nomad/sole broker to Tandem Group (TND).