Cenkos Securities Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 02/10/2017 12:51

Heading back to £2 in my view, particularly if a really big deal comes through. The outlook statement was much more positive than I can remember, so it bodes very well.

[speedsgh] 02/10/2017 12:13

Simon Thompson's column today includes an update on Cenkos, moving from a HOLD to a BUY recommendation...



...Prior to the results, analysts were forecasting a strong recovery in full-year pre-tax profits from £4.4m to £7.8m, leading to EPS of 11.2p, underpinning a bumper 11p-a-share dividend. With cash on the balance sheet worth 35p a share, and net trading positions worth a further 30.5p a share, shareholders can expect a hefty final payout too if the current momentum is maintained, a distinct possibility in my view. Indeed, it was the potential for a recovery in trading that prompted me to include Cenkos’ shares in my 2017 Bargain Shares portfolio at 88.4p ('Bargain Shares: second chance', 17 Aug 2017). The holding is up 41 per cent including last year’s final payout of 5p and, at 125p, the investment risk remains to the upside. Buy.

[cwa1] 02/10/2017 07:47

Numis have just slipped out what looks, to me, a pretty strong announcement on trading:-

[quepassa] 29/9/2017 18:45

103p to 120p or plus some 16% on the week. Stunning gain.

Great share price performance and greatly improved market sentiment upon the strong interim results.

Personally, expecting this positive share price trend/evolution to gather further strong and rapid forward momentum.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 29/9/2017 09:41

re 2540, i know

re 2541, my guess of £7.5m - not a million miles away. thank you for clarification


£7million - still a lot of money.

QP

[speedsgh] 29/9/2017 09:33

Proposals for the Issue of C Shares & Related Matters & Notice of General Meeting (28/9/17) -

"The Issue Costs have been capped at 2 pence per C Share" (see pg4 of prospectus)

Max costs = 350,000,000 * £0.02 = £7,000,000

[speedsgh] 29/9/2017 09:22

QP - The target of the Nov 2016 issue was £250m. They actually ended up raising £350m due to excess demand...

Results of Placing and Offer for Subscription -

Civitas Social Housing PLC ("Civitas" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that as a result of investor interest its IPO has been oversubscribed with demand exceeding the maximum gross proceeds of £350 million. Accordingly, a scaling back exercise has been undertaken with respect to applications received. The Board has resolved to accept gross proceeds under the IPO of £350 million.

[quepassa] 29/9/2017 09:11

The £350million Civitas official prospectus is not yet published - but soon should be.


It is however fascinating to compare the new £350m offering with the original November 2016 £250m Civitas Placing where Cenkos was Sponsor, Financial and JOINT bookrunner with Zeus Capital.

In the original £250m offering the prospectus mentions Gross Proceeds of £250m with NET PROCEEDS of £245m. That is to say £5m in fees/expenses.

With the new £350m offering, Cenkos is SOLE BOOKRUNNER this time.

Guessing at a not dissimilar gross/net Proceeds structure of £350m Gross and £342.5m NET, this could theoretically/potentially be a lot of money in FEES AND EXPENSES (£7.5m) and one can but speculate who will be receiving by far the biggest slice of this juicy fee pie if there is only one SOLE sponsor/bookrunner.

Of course, we'll need to wait and see what the official prospectus actually says about any gross/net proceeds structure and wait to see how the transaction fares in the marketplace but on the face of it this is likely to prove in my opinion only to be another mega fee bonanza for Cenkos with a £multi-million£ fee attached to it.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[speedsgh] 29/9/2017 08:39

Cenkos are acting on a £4m placing for Comptoir Group (COM)...

Placing and Notice of General Meeting -

Comptoir Group plc is pleased to announce that it has raised approximately £4.0 million (gross) via a placing of 26,666,667 new Ordinary Shares at the Placing Price of 15 pence per share. The Placing Shares have been conditionally placed by Cenkos Securities PLC ("Cenkos"), as agent for the Company, with the Board, institutional and other investors.

[topvest] 28/9/2017 21:15

Civitas fundraise looks very good news. They are flying at the moment. Could be a very good year.

[cfro] 28/9/2017 18:16

Pleased to see you here Sailing John and that you see value here too.

[3800] 28/9/2017 14:26

cwa1,
the forecast was on the TD investing website not sure who supplied it or when it was updated. the info there is usually accurate
3800

[quepassa] 28/9/2017 09:56

Background and Pedigree of highly-regarded new CEO, Anthony Hotson, not to be underestimated:

Bank of England
Warburg
McKinsey
Henderson et etc.


all blue-blooded.


A new broom sweeps clean.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[speedsgh] 28/9/2017 09:45

VMH - Yes, see previous posts #2500 & #2509 re the Select Property retail bond fundraising. The £50m target for the retail bond issue is not to be sneezed at if it can be achieved. It would however appear that, as per the Telegraph article & comments by posters on the FIXED INCOME DISCUSSION THREAD (see links below), Select Property Group Finance plc might be viewed as a 'low quality' client.

Cenkos have a nasty habit of acting for such companies (e.g. Quindell, Mercantile Ports & Logistics) that have increased risk of leaving Cenkos with reputational damage. If they were to distance themselves from such companies, it would lead to an improvement in reputation, attract more higher-quality clients, lead to increased & higher-quality revenues and an improved rating of the share price imo. Perhaps this is on the agenda of the new CEO/FD? Aimho

[sailing john] 28/9/2017 09:33

Bought back in today on the bell (after a few years away)
Civitas announcement tipped the scales
GL - SJ

[quepassa] 28/9/2017 09:26

Fees for Cenkos on the Civitas Social Housing £350m transaction as "Sponsor, Financial Adviser and Sole Bookrunner." will likely be mega£££.

It appears to me that the arrival of the new CEO, Anthony Hotson may have cleared the air and paved the way for Cenkos to be very much back in the frame for solely mandated major fund-raisings such as Stobart and now Civitas Social Housing. Both highly remunerative for Cenkos plc.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[speedsgh] 28/9/2017 09:06

Interesting to note that the Cenkos website lists both the US$230m convertible bond placing & the US$300m equity placing for Hurricane Energy (HUR) in July 2017*. One would therefore assume that these will fall into H2 alongside the £350m Civitas raise announced this morning.



* Worth remembering that Cenkos acted as joint bookrunner alongside Stifel Nicolaus Europe for the above HUR placings so will have had to share the profits on this work.

[speedsgh] 28/9/2017 08:56

Nice spot, tannreg. Cenkos are acting as Sponsor, Financial Adviser and Sole Bookrunner.

The target of £350m is comparable with the £386m raised in the Eddie Stobart IPO in H1. Perhaps explains the company's bullish outlook statement a couple of days ago.

[cwa1] 28/9/2017 08:50

Nice addition and a decent size tanneg, thanks.

[tanneg] 28/9/2017 08:42

More good news -

Further to the Company's announcement on 11 September 2017, the Board of Civitas is pleased to announce a £350 million target fund raise via a fully pre-emptive Open Offer, Placing and Offer for Subscription (including an Intermediaries Offer) of C Shares (the "Issue").

[cwa1] 28/9/2017 08:25

3800. If I may ask, who was the forecast from and was it pre or post the half year report? Cheers

[3800] 27/9/2017 20:25

Latest broker forecast which I have seen for 2017 was ptp £7.84m, EPS11.20p, div 11p

[keith95] 27/9/2017 17:03

... as I said already speedsgh .. the text in the annual report was that used ad finitum by Durkin .... and not to be taken too literally as such.


Without a divi cut given the new CEO - 4p was on the cards given the turnover in the first 6 months, with 4.5p beating my expectations which is fine.


The concern here going forwards are considerable regulatory changes - the reason for Hotson's appointment and whether Cenkos can match deal maker Durkin - who by all accounts did well because of strong relationships with Woodford - who at this point seems be losing the plot.

Fundamentally, the opportunity that Durkin and colleagues recognized a decade or so ago one suspects, was the ability to IPO without underwriting as far as I can see .... this will save costs no doubt and breaking into the big time with AA and Hurricane a great tribute to Durkin .... but as you posted ... the Hurricane business is gone .. so that begs the question whether Cenkos can re-live those highs of Billion £ IPOs going forward. One would hope so .. but time will tell.

.. that said, I found the numerous Cenkos tender offers some curious and eventually figured out that these offers allow significant shareholders like Durkin to offload shares while keeping their %age the same so not having to make regulatory announcements.

I've been in and out of this share several times over the past two years ... from 177 LOL ;) ....

.. and now seems a good time to take a break from this one.

That said, some people seem to bearish the day before the rise .. and bullish ... the day before a fall?

Who knows eh?

GLA.

[speedsgh] 27/9/2017 15:56

QP - Difficult to tell re final/full yr div. As always it will depend on H2 performance. H1 2017 they have done EPS 6.1p. If H2 turned out to be similar to H2 2016 (EPS 3.5p) or even similar to H1 2016 (EPS 1.2p), then I wouldn't be so confident about a double-digit full yr DPS. As you say at this stage they sound quite bullish on the outlook; however IPO/fundraisings could easily dry up on the back of a substantial market correction; we're certainly due one at some point! They could certainly do with another largish mandate like the Eddie Stobart IPO in H1 to help at least match H1 earnings.

Also worth noting that FY2014 (which included AA IPO) EPS was 35.2p, DPS was 17.0p (48% of earnings) & FY2015 (which included BCA Marketplace IPO) EPS was 27.2p, DPS was 14.0p (51% of earnings).

So a long way to go perhaps before one can think in terms of div payments of the same scale as 2014/2015. Also worth bearing in mind that, when they post exceptional earnings, they tend to use some of them on a Tender Offer rather than returning it all to shareholders via dividend.

Tender Offer and Notice of General Meeting (9/12/14) -

Proposed Tender Offer and Notice of General Meeting (30/10/15) -

Overall outlook seems positive, as is being reflected in the re-rating since they posted their Interims, but earnings visibilty is notoriously limited in their sector; sentiment can change quickly so perhaps best to err on the side of caution for now until more concrete evidence emerges on the outcome for H2 2017? Aimho