Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[ldmachin] 08/12/2008 17:42

21st Century Media Company,

I think the syphilis your thai tart gave you has gone to your brain... you can't seem to retain information...

i'll repeat again... £700k costs for sumo.tv development in H1 2008 will not occur in H2 2008. Plus there have been further central costs savings going into H2... this combined with growing revenues and revenue streams... means that Cellcast have got a fighting chance if the ofcom decision goes their way...

The headstart agreement is what it is... an agreement, past tense... it's terms have already been agreed and it is in place. Note, read PLW, headstart are ready to chuck more £100k at that as a new venture, even though it squandered all the funding so far...

Maybe if you'd have done your research you might be a better investor... and not one that sticks his money into the likes of WLW...

[21st century media company] 08/12/2008 15:33

The 300k will most likely have gone already - the problem is the ongoing monthly losses - they only made 300k due to the one off 1.2m asset sale - without this the H1 loss would have been 900k - this is unsustainable considering the market cap is now less than 400k.

Hardcore webshow is not doing anything that punters can get for free elsewhere on web - sumo tv is another example of a finite audience - that's why after an initial hype of a 10m price tag, they could not sell it for love or money - the repeat viewing base is small & will remain small - no amount of advertising will change this.

They do have a good product but it can't/won't make them any money - good product does not = good investment.

Fact of the matter is the MARKET says this share is worth only 0.4p (bid) and shareholders wanting to sell in decent size would struggle to get 0.2p.

As for borrowing another 1m from Headstart, well they should concentrate on paying off the outstanding debt before adding more.

In todays ecomomic climate, I'd be very surprised if Headstart would be prepared to lend that sort of money - previous agreements mean diddly squat now.

Hopeless!

[ldmachin] 08/12/2008 15:14

21st Century Media Company,

I don't know how many times i need to say this, but CLTV have the £300k cash made in H1 2008 + £1m loan facility available from headstart.

Alexa rankings are terrible at accuracy... you'd know that if you actually knew how they work and Cellcast's main output is TV and 3G phone output, not web.

If you look at recent developments... Smile 2 on Freeview, new hardcore web show, new individual sites for all the girls, sumo.tv moving back to a better EPG slot on sky... etc, etc... you will see that Cellcast are making progress and doing the right things.

This is one to watch... if they get a favourable Ofcom ruling then the only way they will fail is poor management... they have the product, they are market leaders in the UK at what they do...

Are you frustrated pal... is your thai bird given you the elbow? What's up, run out of cash to pay her to stay with you? ;-)

[21st century media company] 08/12/2008 13:37

Revenue means didly squat.

In 2005, Yoomedia's revenue was over 20m but they still lost milllions - Yoo made a gross profit over 5m but still lost millions.

Just because people are using the service don't make it a viable business - the majority of people have an internet connection, so will use that instead.

Also, this type of service has huge churn rates, with little customer retention - the sorts of people who use it are finite & Even they will just use it two or three times, then move on.

The revenues mean nothing coz the costs are significantly higher - that's just cold, harsh business reality.

Gabriel sends his regards by the way.

[zoo123] 07/12/2008 00:31

Hi,


There are still surprises in this stock guys.


More value then even some of the optimists are aware of.


It's already started diversifying a long time ago to have content that goes beyond being broadcast-dependent, onto the web.


Also, lets not forget that in addition to its own channels, Cellcast is respected enough to run the PRS channels for its competitors, it's also generating (even if trivial) revenue on Sky 212 from teleshopping - if it's confident enough to move back and not worry about running alternative content in the entertainment section.
The Slot on Freeview won't be cheap, but as a television channel on such narrow spectrum, it will also have a value.


People forget that Cellcast is a technology company as much as a broadcast/PRS company - having had the foresight to have called itself "Cell-Cast" is much like Bill gates calling his company "Micro-Soft"!



10/1 is conservative in my opinion........



Yours Kindly,


MN

[ldmachin] 06/12/2008 23:13

21st Century Media Company,

If you actually read the reports from the company... Cellcast Asia are actively seeking funding, Cellcast PLC are not liable for pumping anymore funds into Cellcast Asia... and management believe that the funds that Cellcast Asia are seeking will not impair on Cellcast PLCs holding.

Cellcast management have personally put in hundreds of thousands of pounds. £280k alone at the last placing at 4p... and that's into a currently, loss-making company... LNG management only put in approx £15k and that's into a company that is expected to make £2m+ in 20 days time. That's faith for you.

Neil Craven hasn't offloaded 50% of his holding here either, like he has at LNG... i'm sure someone would have given him £100k for his 20% holding... but he hasn't.

They have £1m available from head start... at any time if required.

[21st century media company] 06/12/2008 22:28

LDMachin - 6 Dec'08 - 22:15 - 1408 of 1408

"... and don't forget Cellcast Asia should be delivering the profits in the near future (not sure when though)"


Quote of the year for me - well done!

Err......300K loss for 6 months, so maybe 600k FY.

Well Cellcast's 35% for that is not far off the entire market cap of Cellcast itself.

If it don't turn profitable very soon, the whole thing will implode on shareholders - the only way forward will be a huge share consolodation, followed by a placement, Yoomedia style.

Management can protect themselves with options.

[ldmachin] 06/12/2008 22:15

the analyst,

Yes, like i said, if the ofcom decision goes Cellcast's way... then the only thing stopping this company from making some nice profits is bad management...

... and don't forget Cellcast Asia should be delivering the profits in the near future (not sure when though)... they only made a £300k loss for H1 2008. For the kind of business they do in a growing economy like India, they should be able to swing that into profit... which means Cellcast PLC will have a 35% stake in a profitable company.

Like i said, Cellcast is one to watch with interest... as the shareholder return could be great in time...

[the analyst] 06/12/2008 21:55

Mirrors my thoughts, LDM. Cheers.

You's think that 8% of turnover would be absolute minimum, and that 15-20% would be more in line with industry standards, wouldn't you?

[21st century media company] 06/12/2008 21:55

LD

The amusing thing is the assumption that I must have held them all the way down. Got rid at 6.9 if you must know.

[ldmachin] 06/12/2008 21:22

the analyst,

I think Cellcast have got a chance if they have a bit of luck with Ofcom. With a market cap of £400k, the rewards could be great for shareholders... but it may take time to see that value, 2-3 years may be at least...

If the Ofcom decision goes well for Cellcast... and then Cellcast still fail... It'll purely be down to inept management... as the product is good and it's currently generating revenues of £12m+... they should be able to turn £12m+ revenues into a £1m net profit easily with premium phone calls... it's only 8% of turnover.

[ldmachin] 06/12/2008 21:17

21st Century Media Company,

No, i used to spend my evenings late night shop-lifting at Woolies... but unfortunately, i won't be doing that anymore... ho hum.

[21st century media company] 06/12/2008 20:24

LDMachin

Is that how you spend your evenings?

Lol

[the analyst] 06/12/2008 19:56

Nice to someone that's has a little bit of optimism, LDM.

Do you have any thoughts on whether the company are currently profitable and generating cash?

Can we expect the balance sheet in the next results to be better than the last ones?

[the analyst] 05/12/2008 22:38

Yup, there are similarities with the companies you mention

The directors have worked it so that they are also the biggest creditors to the company, which in the event of administration would mean they get first bid

Just a matter of trusting them to do the right thing, I guess

[the analyst] 05/12/2008 22:34

"I suppose a £500 punt now is effectively like backing a horse at 10/1."

I'd say that's about right.

There is always the chance that the business fails, but the directors then pull something out the bag by way of reverse takeover or similar. They are smart cookies and have invested a lot of cash themselves in this

Freeview channel is number 46

[21st century media company] 05/12/2008 22:29

Cheers for feedback

What is the Freeview channel number?

I suppose a £500 punt now is effectively like backing a horse at 10/1.

5K or nothing.

I recall OEP forecasting profitability in the Autumn (that was in the Spring of 2007 I thnk?) - anyway they went into administration and from memory the directors picked up some of the assets for peanuts. Never did get close to profitability.

Then there is YOOmedia........yikes!!!

[the analyst] 05/12/2008 22:25

Then there is the precarious ofcom regulation situation, too....

To be honest, I'd stay away from this share until we get both a result from ofcom. Investors also require some sort of reassurance that the Directors are working for the company with ALL investors in mind. In that, I mean they need to explain very clearly to investors how exactly, the company is being run (the accounts are extremely muddled and unclear). They also desperately need to get margins to where they should be. Premium rate phone calls making around 5% margins just makes no sense at all, when they were around 20% some time ago.

Neil Craven tells me that the Directors are 100% committed to the cause, so I gather some comfort from that...