Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[itsinthebag] 26/3/2008 12:17

will they ever make a profit

no

[itsinthebag] 26/3/2008 12:17

ever made a profit

no

[itsinthebag] 26/3/2008 12:16

How much profit do these make?

none

[itsinthebag] 26/3/2008 12:16

Rampers united.

getting to a good level to short.

serial disappointer of a share.

[cyclingnut] 26/3/2008 12:15

Swiss Tony? spur....not 5p//more like 10p...based upon value of some of the channels they own.

[spurberry] 26/3/2008 12:11

this should be at least 5p imho

[sans souci] 26/3/2008 12:08

getting hard to buy in any volume now

Is that swiss guy buying more?

[sans souci] 26/3/2008 11:57

How much cash does this company now have?

Does anyone know what the new monthly cash burn on Sumo.tv is?

Are they now breaking even? (They must be close!)

[lord santafe] 26/3/2008 11:54

The way there rising, CLTV will just raise further funds via a rights issue at 5p per share, which I will be more than happy to take up.

[itsinthebag] 26/3/2008 11:44

someone stupid just paid 3.5p for 25k

Time to take out a short.

[cyclingnut] 26/3/2008 10:32

someone just paid 3.5p for 25k

[itsinthebag] 26/3/2008 10:11

Oh dear -

LONDON (AFX) - Cellcast plc, the global interactive digital broadcaster,
said the drawdown of 200,000 stg of its 1 mln stg convertible loan facility with
Headstart Funds, as announced on Feb 14, has been delayed.
Headstart was to have raised 225,000 stg by placing 3.571 mln shares in
Cellcast at 6.3 pence each but the company said today that the application to
admit these new shares has now been withdrawn.
The loan was to have been used to fund working capital.

[itsinthebag] 26/3/2008 10:08

Remember this;

LONDON (AFX) - Cellcast PLC issued a profit warning for its UK operations in
the second half, and said strategic partner mTouche Technology Berhad has
acquired a 10.14 pct stake in the company.
MTouche, which acquired 4.5 mln shares at 10 pence apiece, is a 50-50 joint
venture partner with Cellcast in its Cellcast South East Asia business.
"Subject to the performance of Cellcast in 2007, and the realisation of the
strategic benefits of this relationship, we may increase our investment in
Cellcast in the future," said mTouche chief executive Eugene Goh.
Cellcast chief executive Andrew Wilson said he welcomed the investment,
saying it would increase synergies between the two companies.
Meanwhile, reporting on its current trading, Cellcast said its UK business
would not return to profitability in the second half, as previously expected,
despite efforts to cut costs.
The measures have resulted in "significant savings" but "the full benefits
will not be realised until the first half of 2007", the company said.
Cellcast remains confident its UK business will return to its previously
achieved gross margins in the first half next year, it said.
The UK company, which operates in the mobile TV sector, said it is focusing
on the mobile and broadcasting markets of Brazil, India, China and South East
Asia, "where both the broadcast, telecoms and regulatory environments best
favour both immediate and long-term returns and where most upfront investment
has already been made in the course of 2006."
Cellcast said it is also looking at ways of generating income on investments
in its proprietary technology outside its broadcast operations and has been
approached to license its multi-media platform and applications for other media
services.

[itsinthebag] 26/3/2008 10:05

Sell before you lose money.

Buy Silence Therapeutics.

Share of the year.

[cyclingnut] 26/3/2008 09:11

freelancer,

I am waiting to hear exactly what the scoop is/was regarding South America.

[james t kirk] 26/3/2008 08:09

Onlien limits, suggest a couple of buys and we'll be off again:

Buy 100k @ 3.24p
Sell 100k @ 3.13p (mid)

[recto verso] 26/3/2008 07:16

Yep, Cellcast have always stated that their strategy is one of syndication and B2B.

This significantly reduces risk and investment.

However, the B2C products would appear to be gaining traction (3G, websites etc) and constantly being improved...



A very exciting company that is working hard to reach profit.

At least the directors have their money on the table.

RV

[freelancer] 25/3/2008 23:18

Cycliing nut.

Thanks for alerting me to this share. It's interesting alone from a business perspective as I work in multimedia telecoms.

I get the story, and feel you are right on many of your assumptions, but the gaping whole is this traffic drop off.

It's massive. If they not lost a major link (i.e distribution channel) then I don't buy the capacity overload narrative.

They are in a server farm business, they should stock up or at least have an external overload facility in place.

It's the one thing holding me back.



Freelancer

[ldmachin] 25/3/2008 20:54

cyclingnut,

With igindex.co.uk, for CLTV you have to place a minimum of £5 a point bet. Daily, Jun 08, Sept 08 and Dec 08 contracts are available. For a september contract the deposit for a £5 a point bet is a mere £3.96. Current buy/sell spread for a september contract is 3.17p/3.27p. In the case of CLTV 1 point = 1p.

Hope that helps.

[the analyst] 25/3/2008 20:45

It will be interesting to see if we begin to get broker coverage after the results and a clearer picture of how Cellcast themselves see the road ahead.

I think that at the moment the business model is still very difficult to understand and that could be a problem for institutions looking to invest. So, clarification of the business model will be important in that respect.

I have no idea what will happen to the share price over the next 6-12 months. In these markets, many investors will be holding off until the group reaches profitability. On the other hand, maybe canny investors will begin to build stakes?

My time-scale is to look 2-3 years ahead and imagine them developing into a technology company bringing in millions at the EBITDA, mainly through syndication and licencing deals. Still a huge amount of work to get to that stage and I'm sure competition will be intense. It's important at this stage, to take advantage of first mover advantage and it's good that they now have the funds to invest in the technology, so I guess it's now just a case of sitting back and watching what develops.

[the analyst] 25/3/2008 20:38

Cheers cycling nut

Looking at the announcement from Thursday, the deal was pretty much as expected and the amount they got for the EPG slots in-line with estimates made previously. It's a real relief.

so, the first stages in developing the company into something big have now been achieved - no debt (effectively), cash in the bank and a profitable core business to provide further working capital. It's a very good position to be in.

The business model for the sumo media division appears to be changing. From one where the website and tv channels themselves are expected to be bringing the main money in, to one where the company develop technology and licence it. The channels and website are certainly still very valuable, and should bring in good revenue, but I think they are now just as much about developing and show-casing the technology as they are about bringing in revenue

My guess is that the worldwide licencing of the technology will be where the company really blossoms. There is huge potential for them to not only get up-front lump sums, but also ongoing licence payments on top of that and possibly revenue share on top of that too.

[cyclingnut] 25/3/2008 20:17

cheers analyst I will be getting an update tomorrow and will let you know what I hear.

[the analyst] 25/3/2008 20:10

With respect to the Brazilian venture, the last time I heard from the company, they said it was still on hold and there are no plans to get it up and running again until things change in Brazil.

I don't think it was just the Brazilian technology that was causing problems. My guess is that the greedy monopoly held by the telecoms co out there and the people of power involved made it almost impossible for all the parties involved to make a good profit from it. Brazil appears to be a very difficult place to work.

Personally, I think it is extremely unlikely that we will see enough change in the Brazilian telecoms system (including the people involved) for it to be factored into the Cellcast share price at all. It's a shame as they were doing £1m per month in the end and still growing quickly. It could have been huge.

Of course, things could change quickly. Cellcast have everything in place to go should things change in Brazil.

On a more positive note, Cellcast have gained a huge amount of experience from the venture and this will help them going forward, especially when they go for new geographic locations. I hear that Nigeria may be presenting exciting opportunities for Cellcast.

[cyclingnut] 25/3/2008 20:06

LD,

Fair enough, when I used to spread they only took bets on companies with a minimum mkt cap of £100m.

What price increments can you bet in....£100 for every quarter penny move or something?