Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[the analyst] 12/3/2008 15:02

I think this is a reasonably up-to-date list of Sky EPG slots.

The quality of the stations above sumo has changed dramatically over the past 6 months, making the sumo slots much more valuable in my opinion.

Men and Motors is moving down from 31 to 184, swapping with ITV2 soon

My bet is that sumo go for a swap in order to get the cash to pay-off any debt.


TELEVISION CHANNELS
101 BBC 1
102 BBC 2
103 ITV1
104 Channel 4
105 Five
106 Sky One
107 Sky Two
108 Sky Three
109 UKTV Gold
110 UKTV Gold +1
111 Dave
112 LIVING
113 LIVING +1
114 LIVING2
115 BBC THREE
116 BBC FOUR
118 ITV 2
119 ITV 3
120 ITV 4
121 Virgin 1
122 Virgin 1 +1
123 Bravo
124 Bravo +1
125 Challenge
126 ParaComedy 1
127 ParaComedy +1
128 ParaComedy 2
129 SCI FI
130 SCI FI +1
131 Men & Motors
132 UKTV Drama
133 UKTV Drama +1
134 S4C
135 Channel 4 +1
136 E4
137 E4 +1
138 More4
139 More4 +1
140 Channel 4 HD
143 BBC HD
144 Sumo TV
145 Sumo TV +1

[the analyst] 12/3/2008 14:54

A small mentionon digital spy bulletin boards of sumo and sumo+1 slots being in a 'prime position' in the EPG channel and speculation that they will be taken out

[the analyst] 12/3/2008 14:49

Sky EPG set for year of big-money deals
Published: 09 January 2008 12:33 Author: Yvette Mackenzie More by this AuthorLast Updated: 09 January 2008 16:45
Miami Ink
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This year will be a bumper one for multimillion-pound Sky EPG deals, according to the founder of a company that brokers deals for channel slots.
Canis Media Group founder Ed Hall said he expected a "flurry of activity" from the 100 to 150 companies that had missed out on slots because of Sky's decision to reject new applications and established broadcasters are looking for a better slot.

"The EPG is like the real estate market - location is everything. As a result big name broadcasters will jostle for the best possible positions high up on the first pages of the EPG. At present, top slots on the entertainment page are worth tens of millions of pounds and those at the bottom only about £50,000, but prices are set to rise," he added.

Canis has just overseen a deal which will see television shopping and infomercial company JML Direct buy two shopping channels on page three of the EPG from Vector Direct. The acquisition of Vector 24/7 on 652 and Shop Vector+ on 656 cost JML a "substantial six-figure sum" and will give JML four channels on the EPG.

Canis also has three other deals in the pipeline including one with a household-name broadcaster which is buying a prominently positioned EPG slot.

Since it was set up in 2001, the company has overseen approximately 30 EPG deals.

At present any Ofcom-licensed broadcaster can trade freely in EPG slots, meaning smaller channels with good slots are likely to be cannibalised by bigger groups which can offer to buy them out. Hall said that this could potentially lead to competition issues in future.

It is also easier for bigger channels to adhere to Sky's new policy of insisting channels carry no less than six hours of non-repeated programming in each 24-hour period. This policy, which will be introduced on 1 July, will also specify no less than 24 hours of non-repeating programming in each seven-day period and no less than 50 hours of non-repeating programming within each 30-day period.

EPG deals last year included Channel 4 buying three EPG slots from niche broadcaster Life TV Media, giving it a six-channel block. Life TV Media was attractive because it operated three channels (137, 138 and 139) in EPG slots which were directly below C4's digital portfolio.

Discovery also bought an EPG slot to launch its DMAX entertainment channel, which shows the likes of Miami Ink, Deadliest Catch and My Shocking Story. It bought channel 155 in the entertainment category from Original Black Entertainment.

[the analyst] 12/3/2008 14:47

Last looked at this back in 2007, but probably worth taking a look at some of the EPG news and deals that have been released in 2008






Virgin Media is to reshuffle its presence on Sky's electronic programme guide on Wednesday, February 20.

The shake-up will see Virgin 1 and its one-hour timeshift replace Bravo and Bravo+1 on channels 121 and 122, giving Virgin 1 a far more prominent spot on page two of the EPG compared to its current position at 153.

To accommodate the changes, Bravo will move to 123, Bravo+1 to 124 and Challenge will move to 125. Challenge+1 and Bravo 2 will take Virgin 1 and Virgin 1+1's old slots at 153 and 154.

Living and Trouble are unaffected, and Virgin Media's channel positions on digital terrestrial and cable will not change.

"2008 is going to be a big year for Virgin 1 – especially with Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles launching this Spring," said Virgin Media's director of television Claudia Rosencrantz. "Our objective with these moves is to bring Virgin1 into a more prominent position for Sky viewers, and bolster the position of Bravo by creating a strong block of male-skewing entertainment."

[recto verso] 11/3/2008 21:16

March should see a rise in hits. Some good new content being shown on channel 144...



made me chuckle :-)

[21st century media company] 11/3/2008 18:57

sipdeal could do 100k online at 2.32p today

that's without getting on the blower!

[the analyst] 11/3/2008 18:26

I wonder if the constant seller is Hoodless? Seems like their style to off-load bit by bit whenever a buy goes through.

[the analyst] 11/3/2008 15:34

Medium term, if they could spin-off sumo, then they should instantly become debt free and end up with some cash in the bank too. I guess the market should then base the mid-term share price on the £1m pa EBITDA that the CEO says the UK core business is making.

Now, in a good market, that could be worth £20-£30m if it's growing organically, but we are in a market that dislikes small cap players and especially marketing companies, so I would perhaps put that business on a PE as low as 6x EBITDA

So, my guess would be a market cap of around £6m, possibly rising to £8-£10m by the finals in 2009. The £6m, I think equates to around 8p per share.

On top of that, there would be the value of the Cellcast Asia business and any stake they retain in sumo.tv to add on. Perhaps together, they would be worth another £2-£4m, but the market may give them no value at all, who knows?

Should things go badly, I think we can look forward to huge dilution and we may as well write them off - a YOO scenario. That's why it's a gamble.

[cyclingnut] 11/3/2008 11:34

analyst,

Provided that these guys do some deals and get debt free and cash positive...what share price would you expect to see medium term as it seems this has not risen for yonks?


Must admit, it does seem like a decent amount of upside IF things work out?

[simon_64] 11/3/2008 10:58

CN

I confess i did a bit of research here two years ago when they did a deal with YOO and spent last night updating myself thanks to the research done by analyst, quite happy to sit on this one for a few months.

[cyclingnut] 11/3/2008 10:33

Si,

Welcome aboard the Mary Celeste lets just hope it ain't the Titanic!

[ghent] 11/3/2008 10:15

I, like all of us,have watched this share go down from 95p to 2p.Loosing more money going from 2p to 0p is not a worry but my problem is that I do not have enough knowledge to guestimate any future upside potential from the current 2p level. The sell off of SUMO seems more a debt balancing act rather than a major share price upside - but I realise I may be totally wrong in my view on this.
I would appreciate any thoughts on the share price potential for this share over the mid, late 08 period if anyone would like to offer an opinion.
Thanks

[simon_64] 11/3/2008 10:02

Morning peeps

That's me in then for 68k picked em up for 2.20 which suggests an overhang. But is looks like a bargain to me.

[the analyst] 10/3/2008 22:27

I think that is exactly why the share price is so low - dilution worries. The management are also aware and made it very clear to me they do not want to issue any more shares. Along with Neil Craven, they did just spend £500k on shares at 4p and I don't think they want to see that go down the drain.

What the management want to do is to raise money through sumo.tv in order that the loan can be paid off rather than diluting through issuing more shares. Of course, what they say and what they do may be two completely different things

Ideally, they are looking to spin off sumo, including the EPG slots into a separate company, retaining a stake in the newco and selling a stake to get enough cash for Cellcast to pay off the loan and have cash in the bank. What should be left, is the UK business, which the CEO has said makes £1m EBITDA

Hence, this is a play on the managements capability to make a decent deal before the cash runs out. It's getting pretty close to the wire...

[21st century media company] 10/3/2008 21:18

I also note the buys at mid price today.

I thought this was a tightly held stock?

This could be indicative of a discounted placement OR the MM having knowledge of the Headstart conversion at 1.95p, hence easy to deliver to retail at 2.25p.

Good way of testing this theory would be to ask your broker to 'work' a 300k order at 2.25p - see what happens?

I'm not saying this is what's happening here, as I don't know - but I've seen it with other shares, therfore once bitten, twice shy,

[21st century media company] 10/3/2008 21:11

Problem is that we don't know what the funding requirements are going forward.

The 500k taken by CLTV on the 26th Nov, will probably be converted by Headstart at 1.95p.

This would leave about 100m shares in issue.

However, that 500k in itself may be close to zero, so Cellcast may well decide to take another 500k or indeed the full 1m.

If this happens the 'yoo' effect kicks in, a downward spiral towards 1p.

This would mean a further 100m shares at 1p (1m converted) or even MORE, if the share price fell below 1p - 'the yoo effect'

The directors need to make an announcement before the 26th March, raasing alternative funds to clear the 500k owed AND provide enough working capital to assure the market that a further drawdown on the remaining 1m will not be required.

[21st century media company] 10/3/2008 20:46

So Headstart can convert at 1.95p - 500k - about 25m shares?

95% of the bid price.

Is this correct?

I guess this is why the share price is so low?


From Header:

[Convertible 'Headstart' Loan of £2m was arranged on 2nd July 2007, of which £500k was taken by Cellcast on 4th July 2007. £50k of this was converted by Headstart on 7th November for 1.67m shares admitted to the market on 13th November 2007. The remaining £450k was placed with directors and major shareholders at 4p on 26th Nov 2007. £500k more was taken by Cellcast on 26th Nov 2007, which can not be converted by Headstart for a period of four month (until March 26th 2007). There is still £1.0m of funds remaining for Cellcast to draw down if required.

[james t kirk] 10/3/2008 18:07

Whatever, the sumo.tv rank has dropped like a stone on Alexa, down to 15,000 from top 5,000.

[cyclingnut] 10/3/2008 16:45

"Simon,

Thank you for your recent enquiry. Expect some exciting announcements next week with regards to sumo.tv; you are right; those two channels alone are worth in excess of £4m. We are discussing a number of strategic options at present which will realize real value for shareholders. In two weeks time we expect the price to be in the 12-15p range.

Regards

Andrew"


ONLY KIDDING!!

[cyclingnut] 10/3/2008 16:13

Just wish he would respond to the email I sent him 5 hours ago........

[the analyst] 10/3/2008 16:05

Lets face it, once you buy you are pretty much trapped - it's a microcap, with no liquidity, tightly held, very few market makers and is in debt. Am I making it sound attractive?

That is, you are trapped until they announce, at which point you know whether you have made a packet or not. It's not a traders share in any way shape or form

Do I rate Mr Wilson? To be honest I don't know enough about him to make a good judgement. Seems to have a huge amount of experience in the sector. He was excited about the group and the prospects when he took the time to talk to me for about half an hour about the company, which is good.

[cyclingnut] 10/3/2008 15:41

Remember Si,

What is hard to buy is also hard to sell......don't want you getting trapped in here mate.

just put £2k in and leave it....seems like massive potential upside......

[cyclingnut] 10/3/2008 15:40

do you rate Mr Wilson?