Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[the analyst] 14/3/2008 18:02

It's easy to blame directors and for sure they played a big part. However, from what I can gather, a lot of the poor performance has been down to circumstances beyond their control.

Firstly, the Sky EPG fiasco that affected their viewing figures was beyond their control and it has taken two long years to get that business back to making a good EBITDA.

Secondly, the Brazil fiasco looks to have been as much due to politics as anything else - one company has a monopoly over there and basically did not provide what they promised to make the Cellcast venture a success.

Thirdly, the poor UK market conditions meant that small companies could no longer get loans or raise money in other ways easily - as with many other companies, this resulted in them having to take the Headstart loan.

Finally, just as they looked to be getting a good deal to spin-off sumo (around six months ago) and make millions (possibly tens of millions), the market conditions eroded even more for small tech stocks resulting in a lack of appetite for new issues. The share price collapse of 'strong' companies like Blinkx made it very difficult

Now, though, we finally have some circumstances that may have swung things strongly in Cellcast's favour.

With the huge demand for EPG slots and Sky allowing companies to auction them off, the timing to do something with them looks to be excellent. Cellcast have been approached by at least four companies looking to acquire or swap them. A lot of big money deals have gone through recently (see earlier posts) and so the timing for a deal on the EPGs to transform the company looks perfect.

Lets see...

[moneymaker6] 14/3/2008 17:04

cycling > frustrated he may be, but ask yourself this - who took Cellcast down the Headstart route. He/they dug the hole and now his (their) money is also on the line - and I say good. It should mean we have a better chance of some sort of return from these depressed levels assuming of course they get it right.

[cyclingnut] 14/3/2008 16:52

The impression one gets is that the CEO is as frustrated as we are and I would be surprised if he went for the share dilution option.

It would appear that a place swap with regards to his sumo tv channels is the most obvious option or an outright sale although I suspect he would not be keen to walk away from a revenue generating business?

If he gives a damn about his shareholders he will do a decent deal which will release shareholder value for all....ie share price heading in the right direction for once.

[moneymaker6] 14/3/2008 16:32

me Lord, Neil Craven buying is not the solution. He has been buying all the way down yet the shares have failed to find support. Its clearly good that a person of his background and calibre is interested and that he feels confident putting real money in, but a re-rating of sorts will only happen when a solution has been found to those issues detailed in post 457 by the analyst.

[the analyst] 14/3/2008 13:50

Yup, was putting a bit of meat on the bones to the comments by 21st century in order to clarify a potential scenario why Neil Craven would be selling LNG (other than the theory that he just thinks LNG are not good value)

As we have discussed, ad nausium, the threat is dilution. Cellcast have two weeks to come up with the deal to avoid it, because the loan note can be converted on the 26th. If they manage to do a spin-off or EPG sale, or EPG swap then they can simply pay off the loan and the company can be valued on its earnings, rather than being valued on the prospects of further dilution.

[lord santafe] 14/3/2008 13:43

Something of interest about why Neil Craven sold some of his Leisure and Gaming shares for possibly increasing his stake into Cellcast.

the analyst - 13 Mar'08 - 22:24 - 3717 of 3796


May sound off-topic, but I think this is relevant:

As 21st Century mentioned earlier, this selling could well be because Neil Craven wants to use cash to fund what he considers to be a better value investment - CLTV (Cellcast plc).

It looks like Cellcast have a deal on the cards whereby they will either sell or spin-off one of their assets (sumo.tv, consisting of two Sky EPG slots and a website that attracts 4m users per month). This asset is almost certainly worth a lot more than Cellcast's entire current market cap.

The deal is likely to be within the next two weeks as they have a convertible loan note due on the 26th and the Cellcast CEO has stated that he does not intend to dilute the shares - he wants to pay the loan off, rather than let them convert. Hence, I can see that Neil Craven would be looking to raise funds in order to increase his stake in Cellcast

21 Century mentioned that Cellcast may need cash for a placing. That may be true, but it may be more than that. It may be that they have managed to spin-off sumo into a separate company and are raising funds to get this underway. The Cellcast CEO has stated that this is their preferred option going forward, as it would be a deal that would leave them with more cash than their entire market cap, whilst retaining their profitable UK-based core business.

So, I don't think this is panic selling from Neil Craven. I just think he is simply taking funds out of one good value investment whilst the price is rising and there is sufficient liquidity to allow him to sell and putting the money into another company that he considers to be better value for money.

If I am right, then there is no need for LNG holders to panic, it doesn't mean that he thinks that LNG is overpriced. It just means he thinks he has spotted an even better investment.

Just a guess, but one to add to the pot...

Cheers

t.a.

[lord santafe] 14/3/2008 13:26

Thats possible, but Cellcast did the deal at 8 and 8.8p per share, so Headstart had a bad deal for the money they lent Cellcast. If they sell them at the current price then Cellcast has paid them very little back for the total loan.

[amotoor] 14/3/2008 13:20

You should also bear in mind if Headstart start converting, than you should be able to pick them up around 1-1.5p, as this is what,s been happening since share price was around 10p appox. Cheap can get cheaper. IMHO....DYOR.

Amo

[lord santafe] 14/3/2008 13:17

Looking back on their announcements I see they have had a major deal with one of the UK's top rated website Bebo.com. Therefore I can see that CLTV is a winner, so I will try to get some as soon as I can.

[cyclingnut] 14/3/2008 12:59

Lord, Neil Craven would not have increased his stake last month if he felt these guys were duffers..........he is a very astute investor based in Switzerland.........this will fly....I expect 5p in the coming months

Only around 16% shares in free float, pick them up sooner rather than later because if buyers move in this will fly IMHO.

[lord santafe] 14/3/2008 12:35

under 2.25p to buy still. I agree it seems that the company does have potential and I may buy 500 pounds worth soon along with GNOS as long term holds.

[cyclingnut] 14/3/2008 09:14

Lord,

When you consider that the their two sumo tv channels on sky are worth more than the whole current market cap of the company it is a no brainer!!

I think this will be a multi bagger once it gets moving. I am surprised at such little interest.

Take some time to read the top of this thread, analyst has kindly done all of the hard work for us re research....

[lord santafe] 14/3/2008 02:42

Interesting post on the LNG thread about Neil Craven selling about 350,000 LNG shares to fund possibly further buying into CLTV?.

Makes me wonder if these are worth a dabble?.

[cyclingnut] 12/3/2008 16:30

"Cellcast says Neil Craven lifts stake in co to 17.61 pct"......don't think that chap would lift his stake in a company that is going to the wall do you? If he is that confident then so should we be......

[spurberry] 12/3/2008 16:11

is it good news regarding cellcast?

[cyclingnut] 12/3/2008 16:03

you got email analyst

[cyclingnut] 12/3/2008 16:00

yeah cheers

[the analyst] 12/3/2008 15:52

Got the email address yet cyclingnut?

[the analyst] 12/3/2008 15:30

Not sure when to expect results, though. The next announcement should be to do with the funding issues, I'd have thought.

[spurberry] 12/3/2008 15:29

can i have it too cyc please?

[the analyst] 12/3/2008 15:29

Cheers cyclingnut

[cyclingnut] 12/3/2008 15:28

analyst,

When are we expecting results from CLTV?

[the analyst] 12/3/2008 15:19

I'm not an expert of what it 'big' and what is not with respect to channels. However, there are quite a channels that seem (to me) to be 'big' that will almost certainly be trying to move up the EPG to get closer to the top

They may be looking to buy-out or replace sumo.

Just a few, for example:

Sky 1 HD
ITV3+1
Bravo 2
Film 24
Dave+1
MTV
Film 4
Film 4+1

[the analyst] 12/3/2008 15:11

Another recent deal. shame there are rarely any figures attached to these deals




ITV2+1 to take Men & Motors EPG slot
Thursday, March 6 2008, 12:22 GMT
By James Welsh, International Editor
ITV2 and its one-hour timeshift sibling are to begin broadcasting 24 hours a day on March 17, it was announced today.

As part of the changes, ITV2+1 will swap slots on Sky's electronic programme guide with Men & Motors, resulting in the timeshift channel making a significant jump from channel 184 to 131.

GMTV2 programming, including the Action Stations kids' TV strand, will move from ITV2 to ITV4. Action Stations will continue to be simulcast on CiTV.

"ITV2 is the number one digital channel in the UK and is more than ready to broadcast 24 hours a day 7 days a week," said Jonathan Rogers, director of operations at ITV's channels division. "These moves are designed to maximise the ongoing success of ITV's portfolio digital of channels."