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CASP Caspian Sunrise Plc

2.90

-0.05 (-1.69%)

13 Jan 2025 - Closed

Delayed by 15 minutes

Caspian Sunrise Investors - CASP

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Stock Type
Caspian Sunrise Plc	CASP	London	Ordinary Share

	Price Change	Price Change %	Share Price	Last Trade
	-0.05	-1.69%	2.90	11:00:25

Open Price	Low Price	High Price	Close Price	Previous Close
2.95	2.90	2.95	2.90	2.95

more quote information »

Industry Sector
OIL & GAS PRODUCERS

Top Investor Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 13/1/2025 12:14 by the new norm Don't think anyone would disagree that CASP should be valued in USD given their assets produce oil which is priced in USD What I don't understand is the market cap of CASP was $125m in Oct24 Now it is $80m!!! Nothing has changed except the pound has dropped against the mighty dollar If the market was pricing CASP USD correctly that asset should have appreciated in value by >10% in sterling terms not drop 30% since October Embarrassing how bad the AIM market is at pricing asset value, but I guess there lies the opportunity for savvy investors to exploit ;-) Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 05/1/2025 17:13 by xclusive2 They've stated NO to returning to a dividend structure BUT special Divis are likely, especially if they sell assets. Currently the m/cap is c £68m and the question 'what are our assets worth ?'Hopefully all investors have read the latest Zeus broker report. 10.9p fair current value and 73.6p with upside. No value attributed to B8 or West Shalva yet we are priced in the doldrums at 3p. The current FV estimate is a 260% hike from current share price but nobody is buying it. They have found oil at all deep structures but are yet to flow them commercially. 803 at NY is the latest to flow at 500bopd with further testing due on receipt of licence approval and if commercial, will immediately improve the NAV. It would be a massive boost for investor confidence as suddenly the monkey has lost its foothold. A5 side-track, B8 testing next and there would be considerable hype/expectation that other drilled structures are going to prove commercial.The company have completed reserves estimates for Airshagyl but not for NY structure but have applied for production licences. The reserves estimate was a requirement for NY block but it hasn't be published ? The production licences will incur a cost so are they playing a game with the Kaz authorities hence the stalling of testing at 803 ? They have the extended appraisal licence agreed for up to 12 months so why not crack on ? They have been clever with their approach to licence applications as it enables them to sell them individually if required. They've stated that structures with production licences are like RH droppings so there should be considerable value when sold, that value will be dictated following the testing on NY block and remedial work on Airshagyl but I believe that both assets will be sold in the not to distant future. B8 Akkaduk structure to be tested as soon as licence approved and if successful, they'll keep that asset and hopefully WS structure proves to be successful this quarter. If they generate cash chunks from asset sales, they'll pay special Divis as they've already set up the tax structures to benefit from large windfall payments.As stated, how can the company be valued at 3p when they have so many assets that if sold separately will generate multiples of current share price The PIs dictate the price and currently, many are jaded and fed up with the current situation but it will take very little to break this out with gusto. Good news will strengthen the NAV and bring in new investors looking for the next good thing and it could be Caspian.I remain hopeful of achieving that multi-bagging return, hopefully 2025 is finally the year we start to see the successes we've waited a long time for.Wishing for a happy, healthy and prosperous NY for all Caspers :) Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 24/12/2024 12:36 by xclusive2 Happy Xmas to all investors. A miserable year but here's to 2025 !! Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 09/12/2024 10:08 by bluemango Consider an imaginary investor. Let's give him a name, call him 'incredulous'. He fancies making a quick, easy, gain and buys this little oil tiddler he's heard about. Fast forward a few years maybe, Christmas is fast approaching, he needs to buy pressies but his oil tiddler is disappointing him and hasn't yet given the gains he needed. Basically he's given up. If that was you or I, perhaps we'd then want to exit, ideally on the back of new investors seeing the lowly price compared to asset value, reading this thread & liking the story, and buying in, pushing the price up a bit to make his exit less painful. But what does our incredulous do? He decides to trash the stock, post doom & gloom, says it certainly can't go above a certain price next year (how does he know?) and generally does his best to put off any potential new investors looking in to this thread to gauge current sentiment. P.S. For any potential new investors looking in, whatever you're wondering, the answer is, genuinely; nobody knows. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 02/12/2024 07:55 by xclusive2 https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/eni-kazakh-joint-venture-hits-dry-well-in-caspian-report/2-1-1732975?zephr_sso_ott=BYqkmLThe question will be whether there's appetite for continued investment in the N Caspian or not. Casper stating that project completed on 24/9, that's far more than the 45 days or so from AGM . They believe that the successful operation of the well by the CE has increased its value BUT that's only if there's demand for its services. Financially it has not made a huge profit since its purchase in 2020. Annual cost for maintenance, mooring etc is c $1m and there's the cost to ready the barge for projects like the recent one. As stated, I'd prefer that they sold it for the $60m or so they believe it's worth and reward investors with a large special divi :) Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 22/11/2024 08:47 by penrith Read the posts on LSE and they are indeed exhaustive. Well done to the contributors but they tell us nothing new. They are an excellent recap for anyone who may be interested in investing here. As a long term investor my simple statement is that the real world sees the Company share value at circa 3.5 p which will drift downwards again until the next RNS. No one other than the current investors believe any of the hype. Why are we stuck at this level despite supposedly good news. Let's be honest the indications from the Company from earlier RNS was that all the sale and boat rental money would be in the bank now and that is not the case. Trust is lacking and the share price is demonstrating that. Sales today so far greater than buys. It does not add up. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 22/11/2024 07:58 by xclusive2 Posted on LSE last night. Distraction from sore arze syndrome :)Great to see SPA signed and completion deadline on 31/12 and dependent on debt financing being agreed, Kaz regulatory approvals and no material adverse changes to the business. If deal not completed by 31/12, a new long stop date to be agreed. I still believe Caspian will benefit from existing production from MJF until deal completes and current revenues should be c $1.8m per month which you could add to the deal value, especially as costs, labour, drilling etc would have decreased considerably as no more drilling on the MJF/SY block, only the 815 acid test as well has been completed.They also have the $14m in the bank earning c $200k pm. The $ has strengthened over 10% against the Tenge and as we know, they pay all costs in the local currency. Add in the recent payment for the first Caspian Explorer charter, c $6-7m, they're in a good place financially.Additionally, the deep drilling has paused on BNG so costs will have reduced considerably further strengthening their finavil position.Hopefully most investors have read the Zeus broker reports and understand their current FV estimates at 10.8p and unrisked valuation at 75p. If AR deal completes imminently as per today's RNS, Caspian will be in a strong position to start accelerating operations on the key assets. What's in the pot ? DeepsAirshagyl Block. Our most lucrative opportunity with 2 wells drilled (A5/6)that have flowed oil with a 3rd (A7) drilled to c 50% of TD. A5 was the most promising with oil flowing at c 3800bopd on full choke before the blockage issues that has dogged then on all wells. A5 side-track is planned for 2025 and if successful, it transforms the valuation of this company. North Yelemes Block3 deep wells drilled (801/2 & 803) and oil discovered at all but heat and pressure challenges have resulted in blockages but latest well 803 was tested at 500bopd but work has been paused as they await production licence approval. They are completing the final reserves update and hopefully full production licences will be approved for both Airshagyl and NY blocks. Caspian are very good at flipping assets for a considerable profit as demonstrated by the historic Galaz sale for $100m and the current MJF deal for $88m if it completes. What could the A block and NY blocks be worth. Could be hundreds of million $s dependant on outcome of 803 and A5/A6 testing and side-tracks. They've also split the licence applications so they could sell either block separately.Block 8 deepsThe are in the process of completing the acquisition of B8 but are awaiting the the licence approval on the Akkaduk structure where they have drilled a deep well to 3450m and will test on receipt. The Sholkara licence has been approved where 2 wells on the block were flowing at c900 bopd, now only 100bopd but remedial work planned to improve production levels with work overs. ShallowsWest Shalva transfer of ownership agreed and company working on deal completion . First well to be drilled in Q1 25 and Caspian are hopefully of replicating their success in the Jurassic and replicating the revenues received from the MJF structure.Caspian ExplorerFirst charter completed for c $6-7m. The CE completed the drilling quicker than expected and company believe that further charters very likely annually going forward generating significant revenues. Caspian also could sell the CE and they believe that $60m+ would be achievable. It's on the balance sheet for pennies !Other opportunitiesMining opportunity. Their first mining operation and was presented to the AGM attendees. A manganese operation from day one but other copper, gold opportunities could follow. Limited outlay of cash on updating equipment but I expect we see the details of the acquisition shortly.Oil Services businessThey have 5 rigs and about to acquire another G70 rig from Sinopec. This enables them to reduce the cost of drilling significantly as they don't need to rent rigs. They also have their oil trading business and that is a very high profit business and I expect them to trade other oil producer oil a ell as their own if they're successful from their current asset portfolio.I maintain that the assets have considerable value, far in excess of the current m/cap. The barge alone would generate c 2.5p to market cap if they decided to sell it.Hugely oversold imo and investors will finally start to see a real ROI next year and multi-bagging performance in play ? Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 15/11/2024 09:06 by xclusive2 https://tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/interest-ratehttps://www.kzibank.kz/en/accounts1Interest rates in Kaz are still at 14.25% and interesting to see how much our Casper will be receiving from the initial AR deposit and the CE cash.Current share price is discounted over 70% from the fair value Zeus broker estimate of 10.9p but the PI investor base aren't buying it. As NN and others have posted, there are lots of assets in play that can multi-bag the share price The biggest share price hike will come from a commercial deep, the most likely B8/802/3 or A5 but all on hold until licences approved. They've done the reserves assessment work on Ablock and now in the process of doing the same for NY block as part of the process of achieving a full 25 year production licence. They state that blocks with production licences are sought after in Kaz and as with the current sale of the MJF/SY blocks, the same could happen to BNG. Possible sake value currently ? Maybe $200m or more but obviously that will depend on the outcomes of 803 and A5 which are the most likely to be commercial. As far as we're aware, 803 is flowing at 500bopd with more testing to come and A5 at 3800 bopd but another side-track planned next year. As soon as those 2 wells are drilled, maybe 802 too, BNG will be sold for a chunk of cash. Caspian are not skilled enough or financially strong enough to commercialise the oil, to undertake the FDP etc, that'll be left to the big boys.Next ? B8 ? If Akkaduk is commercial then I believe they keep this and develop it first a while. The same goes for WS if first wells are commercial. The barge ? I believe hey should sell it but if this first charter success means that they could charter a couple of times a year then it'll become a useful money spinner and still be saleable should they decide to move it on.I believe they start generating cash from asset sales in 25, the first bring the AR deal but as we know, that's not over the line yet. Then comes BNG and they'll be cash rush, looking for acquisitions like the mining asset they are pursing now.It's taking an age to generate a return for investors but they do have assets and hopefully cash from AR/CE to start prioritising and accelerating work on them. Hopefully we are getting closer to achieving that ROI, maybe 2025 will be our year !! Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 04/8/2024 08:15 by xclusive2 Raushan used to be a 3% holder but now under the 3% threshold as a result of increased share issue.One thing we do need is to convert those assets into real value. I don't want to see any more family assets being absorbed until they do otherwise we see more dilution.They are moving in the right direction ie to create shareholder value BUT it's taking a long time. The CE is finally showing its worth and hopefully continued charters, involvement in projects etc that will mean it delivers an annual contribution. Also its sale value is multiples of current value on the balance sheet.MJF is being sold and had been the cash cow. It's a chunk of cash but it certainly won't be the end of the world if the deal falls through, especially as daily production is at 2300 with the added profitability of the oil trading arm. The BNG deeps, as we all know, that's where we get rich if they come off. They're splitting the BNG licences and have extended for 2 years to continue appraisal process providing licences approved. Will be interesting to see what happens next if they can prove both structures up. I believe they sell the licences for a chunk of cash or the company dependant on what's happening with the other operations. They would have to spend fortunes to initiate the FDP so they will sell it or company but I believe it'll be the former and keep the remaining assets in the business. Then Block 8 deeps. If they did sell BNG, I believe they keep this asset and continue the journey. What do they have there ?existing production albeit low from 2 x previous Soviet deeps but have drilled the 2 new structures and the company has alluded to the fact that this will replace the MJF/SY production, encouraging if it's true.Then there's West Shalva. They believe it's a producer but we'll know the result if the first well in H2.Then the mining asset, as stated, I don't want it until they prove up the current assets but I'm sure it'll be proposed and will be interesting to see the financial case if it's a producing asset. Then there the oil services business, building a more diverse business with different arms. The Oil Trading arm is proving profitable and could continue to grow on oil and commodities, not just for the Caspian asset portfolio.What's next ? 803 news this week and it's a huge well for Caspian. If successful, it will transform the landscape and with it investor sentiment. All the other assets will look a tad more shiny and the hype will begin but this time with some solid foundations. If it's a failure, share price will retrace into the 3p zone but it will bounce very quickly as there's other material news to follow in H2. We need a result on a deep play, much that this find is above the salt, it really would change the game and attract new investors. Like a broken record, H2 is that defining period for investors and are they going to finally deliver against the expectations set. Big week coming up, good, bad or indifferent . Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 23/7/2024 09:06 by xclusive2 Jay,Nobody knows the true position on 803, only Caspian leadership. 803 could be non commercial but worst case they drill on, not the end of the world as this was a bonus find and we have a busy H2 ahead and most of the news is likely to be positive. We're going to know soon enough re 803 but some investors will sell, especially the TA boys but the volume is tiny. Penrith,It tells a story and many investors aren't able to test the bid/ask in volume. It's the investor barometer to gauge investor interest and direction of travel, some may find it of interest. 803 could be flowing, nobody knows and a positive update will definitely throw the cat in :) Read Full Thread Reply

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