Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[rutter] 12/3/2020 08:32

Pendragon. Could I ask all who've made fortunes on AIM to put their hands up Mmm can't see any

[pendragon2] 12/3/2020 08:09

Beginning to feel as though this will be one of those years when old fortunes are lost and new ones made.

Some of the prices are absurd.

[pendragon2] 12/3/2020 07:28

The notion that US opposition is to protect their exports of gas is misplaced. Eastern Europe has been importing gas from Siberia for half a century or more and there's a massive network of pipelines across the former Eastern bloc. Even the old 'West Berlin' was supplied with Russian gas for most of its energy. US gas hardly figures in Europe, lpg less than 10% of Gazprom's deliveries, though the Americans would obviously like to build up their modest market share.

The Nordstream projects 1 & 2 are basically intended so supplies for Western Europe and Germany in particular can circumvent recently independent states such as Ukraine and Poland, and predate the US shale/lpg exports. Russia would like to make deliveries to Germany without the possiblity of these countries shutting off supplies, while it would also like the potential of shutting off supplies to Ukraine and co without impinging on supplies to Germany. It could also be argued that Nordstream represents a rational modernisation of the energy infrastructure.

Germany has enormous capacity to store gas underground. The contracts, as I understand it, are related to the prevailing oil price with a six month time lag. So the price formula established now, will apply to gas in September.

This emphasis on the benchmark prices like Brent obscures the contractual nature of much oil pricing and the associated hedging, just as the emphasis on a particular blend obscures the likely prices for other grades.

For some of the biggest players, the price of crude simply flows through their own accounting systems to be reflected at the petrol pump as a relatively small factor in price per litre once transport, refining, tax and even a profit margin are factored in.

Were that not the case, I very much doubt whether the price swings would be so great.

[rutter] 12/3/2020 07:10

Having re read this lengthy summary yet again one has to ask. Why is progress so slow. How many people are being employed on these projects especially if cash isn't a problem When I've says " we are not in a hurry". He f well means it. Now for another month's wait. Grrr

[dhb368] 12/3/2020 01:10

Yeah, shale was already finished at $50 POO in terms on new production coming online with a lot of producers just about supporting their debt. Raising equity or new finance for another shale boom will need significantly higher POO. And without new wells the shale output will decline very quickly.

Of course if the big boys want to get involved then finance is not an issue, but there seems to be more of a focus on diversifying into renewables and so I cannot see it happening on a large scale.

[davidblack] 11/3/2020 21:20

Last time Wall Street refinanced the sector using other people’s money and the premise was that the assets could be bought on the cheap, consolidated and then sold to the next “Bigger Fool.”

After $500bn of still outstanding loans, no profits and huge risk that trick is not going to be there this time.

Frankly if the Saudis and Russians patched themselves up deal wise tomorrow the financial avalanche for Shale has already started.

But the Russians will want to demonstrate they are running the game with their real intention to split the US from the EU over the gas pipelines that Trump is trying to block to protect US gas exports. Killing the byproduct natural gas that goes with that shale oil means that the Russians are locking in 30 years of income and geopolitical ties to both Germany and France. It’s a poker game well beyond Trumps intellect.

[sparusty] 11/3/2020 20:53

They tried it before, to kill off the shale. Cant see it happening, it may dent a few enough to pack it in.
If it goes on for any length of time they will be shooting themselves in the foot.

Hydrogen power will just accelerate faster than ever, it is already getting a hold in many countries.

[davidblack] 11/3/2020 20:36

The deal has already been done. This is just a giant game being played by both the Russians and the Saudis. So much easier to sell if they appear to be fighting plus the Saudis have no real interest in being seen as taking an anti American line but get brownie points for falling out with Putin.

Should take three months to cripple the fracking industry and US oil volumes will start to fall six months after that.

[sparusty] 11/3/2020 19:16

Had to take some Rockrose it dipped below 800, given the amount of cash at hand the price is nuts. 7 weeks ago it was 2100.

Give it 2 or 3 months or the Russians make a deal and it will fly IMO.

[dhb368] 11/3/2020 17:10

Smarty, as least you got out with a profit!

Lets hope they are holding back on some more detail until the market can appreciate it.

Airlines and holiday companies I fear for long term. A lot of fixed costs.
I feel gutted for the Hays travel people that took over Thomas Cook branches. What a hand they have been dealt. Hopefully all will be clear in time for the summer holiday trade, even if it is late bookings.

[xclusive2] 11/3/2020 16:51

DHB,

EZJ back to 9.20 and further to go i suspect as the real bad news and profit warnings come out. I was a little gung ho the other day but will pick up some of the ravaged stocks this month, all about timing as always.

[xclusive2] 11/3/2020 16:46

The announcement wasn't unexpected. Treating the PIs with disdain as usual, lack of factual info to make informed investment decisions.

Current m/cap c£82m with a boat worth 52m allegedly, now worth 15m.....lol, great job lads.

Sjhallows
Disappointed to see production decline when they have x rigs deployed on the project ? 150 taking an age to drill compared to other shallows and 150 which has progressed rapidly ? Problem with 150 ? flippin hope not as that does put a dark cloud over the MJF prospect, hopefully not.

Deeps
Shocking communication, no effin detail and i'm disgusted that they can issue such poor info to shareholders. What is going on at A5 ?

'At BNG, work continues to clear Deep Well A5 to allow a resumption of production. Work also continues to prepare for the acid treatments at Deep Wells A6, 801 & A8.'

What work ? what is the true position ? Is the well choked off to a trickle as per last communication ? That followed the BS announcement re 1500 bOpd, that's oil, not mud water, gas and anything else Carver has dropped down the well.

Other deeps, where the hell is the acid coming from, Wuhan !

Can't nake any investment decisions when the communication is dire. Could be hugely oversold with MJF and the boat but the upside will be pennies as opposed to the multiples from a successful deep program.

This is blind investing and even Mystic Meg is struggling.

Tozzers !

[pendragon2] 11/3/2020 16:14

I am amazed that people are continuing to sell at these levels, unless they can see a tax advantage in booking a loss.

Carver's RNS rarely inspire, but the point about benchmark crude prices having less impact than might be imagined is worth accepting at face value.

Like everyone else I'm frustrated about the deeps, but relieved the shallow wells are producing with volumes about to increase significantly.

At some point, the company will have to decide whether the deeps should be integrated within some kind of JV, (any thoughts about a potential partner?), so that revenue from the shallows is not simply being buried underground. As has been flagged up by the drilling barge acquisition, there are opportunities elsewhere. Either that, or throttle back the whole programme of spending on the deep wells. As ever, if one of them flows at reasonable rate, say 750-1500+bopd, it's a game changer…

(note: Oil sales come in at about $1.5million, so not insignificant)

[ridicule] 11/3/2020 14:55

The most damning aspect of today’s announcement was the complete lack of timescale associated with resolution of any of the deeps. How Carver can go from, ‘we live in exciting times’ to an unexplained cause of the delays, other than at the most generic level just about sums him up. There is a very big difference between the mud taking longer to clear than was anticipated and knocking their head against some insurmountable problem. We are left guessing as to which of those scenarios is unfolding.

[swerves1] 11/3/2020 13:45

But if they wanted to buy the 1m back in now, they'd still have to pay more than they got!

[rutter] 11/3/2020 13:04

I wonder if the 1,000,000 sell yesterday was because of some inside info. Of course it was

[davidblack] 11/3/2020 11:48

Yep that was a “let’s keep our head down” release if ever there was one.

Exactly what is needed in this market.

Some selling, clearly not everyone agrees with me.

[maxim1999] 11/3/2020 11:33

Under the circumstances a relief .Progress being made to support the base case revenue via the shallows. 4 deeps still on the table.No signs of a cash squeeze.The share is supported here by the current flow with significant upside still an outcome.

[dhb368] 11/3/2020 10:28

"The total number of barrels produced in February 2020, was 38,626 (January 2020, 44,169) at a daily rate of 1,332 bopd (January 2020, 1,425).

The decline in daily production resulted principally from the impact of pausing production at Deep Well A5."


'principally from the impact of pausing production at Deep Well A5'. What a croc of sh1t. A5 accounts for almost 0 bopd so the workovers or just decline are responsible for 100bopd reduction.


"Also at the MJF structure at BNG we are pleased to confirm New Well 150, has reached Total Depth of 2,500 meters, wireline logging has been completed, and cementing operations are ongoing in preparation for perforating.

In addition, New Well 153, which has a planned Total Depth of 2,500 meters, has reached a depth of 1,000 meters without incident."

The missed timescales surprise me no more but is a lack of detail about the wireline logging not worrying?

[johnwalton] 11/3/2020 10:14

production down

sp down

[dhb368] 11/3/2020 10:13

*ding* *ding* *ding* *ding*

The sound of a can bouncing down the road.

Well done CC