Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 03/4/2017 07:33

Nice and perky this morning, this is what i was expecting on Friday. It would be good to build up a head of steam before we start getting the news. Maybe the sun is about to rise over the Caspian, about bleedin time.

Smarty

[xclusive2] 31/3/2017 14:14

Very good post K and on the money.

All about operational success and they're going to look very silly if the positive results don't follow.

You're previous post was under egging the real 'blue sky' opportunity ahead and i'm sure there'll be plenty of that if the news is positive and i'll be adding a little fuel to the fire.

Could get silly and i don't understand why we're in red country today ? not for much longer.

Smarty

[konil] 31/3/2017 11:10

toggle, "I think we will need Data filled RNS’s as opposed to Chat filled PR interviews to attract the institutions."

nail on the head!

i take some hope from carver putting his face out there saying 2 deeps in the next qtr.

making such a public announcement over several interviews he sets himself up to look like a fool at best and mendacious at worst if they fail to deliver. it will kill any hope casp have of attracting serious buying interest from big boys.

not being an oiler i dont know how far ahead in the drilling/flow-test process one can be 'fairly confident' of operational outcomes, but by his tone i'd say he was 'fairly confident'.

in his latest interview he mentioned the new shallow was already at td, so they must know whether they have oil or not, perhaps waiting for flow test results before announcing.

if anything i think he was underplaying the prospects, being careful not to emphasise too much the future production numbers. somewhere i think he suggested a doubling from shallow producers, and when he spoke about the deeps he mentioned 2000 to 3000 bopd in a low key way, and hardly ever (only once i think) made it clear that was the expectation from each well, not a total number.

he mentioned that at $16 casp was making money, enough for g&a and some ops, but was low key about the forthcoming uplift to revenues in june 2018 from export sales. if new shallow production between now and then is added in to the 1500bopd and are sold into the export market at close to 2.5 or 3 times the current price (op hovering around $50), the impact on revenues will be dramatic.

add in say 4000 or 5000 bopd from deeps and cash will be pouring in.

at that stage perhaps some serious research will be done on casp by analysts, who to date do nothing other than boringly repeat whatever they hear from the company or whireland - very little (if any) original research being done.

assuming carver knows what's going on and is providing a fair trailer in his interviews, patient holders are about to be rewarded big time.

[togglebrush] 31/3/2017 10:23

In the last Happy Time which I define has July to December 2014. (after the first Deep Well A5 show ) Volumes and Share Prices were higher (Momentum). Deals were of a size preferred by Institutions as opposed to current deals which are more at an Individual Investor level. These were encouraged by RNS’s which were coming out at nearly one a week. (some 18 in total)
‘
I think we will need Data filled RNS’s as opposed to Chat filled PR interviews to attract the institutions.
‘
Below are Statistics, based on ADVFN data, for comparison. (January 2016 onwards v July to Dec 2014)

Daily Trading Volumes_Jan 16+_Happy Time 2014
'
Maximum________5,738,039_____57,931,623
One in hundred_3,977,679_____33,527,580
Q3_______________923,659______7,181,217
Median___________510,556______3,808,892
Q1_______________287,620______2,072,697
‘
Share Prices OHLC_Jan 16+_Happy Time 2014
'
Maximum__________11.695_______25.250
One in hundred___11.592_______21.473
Q3_______________10.557_______17.125
Median____________9.792_______14.625
Q1________________6.109________4.375

[xclusive2] 31/3/2017 10:02

Now you're being silly Mr H.

[konil] 31/3/2017 09:45

i'm guessing corporate transactions in o&g in kaz and nearby have been thin on the ground - if anyone has details of any it could be instructive to see the valuations at which they were done. could give pointers to p2/oip values.

with oil infrastructure good in the vicinity p2/oip should attract reasonable value. no one willing to hazard a guess, but many happy to shoot down other's suggestions - but what the heck - i'll go with $2 for deep stuff. maybe even $3 or more if from a producing well/field.

i doubt casp can get to p2 of 700mmboe by june 2018, but let's say they do. at $3 that would value casp at $2.1bn, with say 1.7bn shares that = $1.24/share = £1/share.

easy to get to £1 like that but if they keep going and looking past 2018 if casp not snapped up first, they could prove up much more than 700mmboe given time.

if they break the habits of the past decade and start to consistently show operational successes the hype will come back and the share price will get ahead of itself.

i'm waiting for the ride to start.

[xclusive2] 31/3/2017 09:32

Hello Shallow, found the new board then.

I think it's that old case of mistaken identity again, keep taking those pills -:)

[hallow] 31/3/2017 09:02

xclusive2

What happened to your post where you said you sold all your Roxi/Casp shares a few days ago ?

[timberwolf3] 31/3/2017 08:39

HD, you got it right when you said in 2008 ;
It is important to note that the Roxi story is not a short term one. This company is investing
for the long term and an investment position is recommended with a long time frame.
and
We would suggest that Roxi is a long term lockaway

[xclusive2] 31/3/2017 07:29

This isn't going to be at 10p for long guys and going for a run. Another finish at intraday high today as expectation builds.S

[xclusive2] 31/3/2017 06:55

Finishing on intraday high. Hopefully the PR is having its effect and the new business name is getting out there. Operational success is the only catalyst to get us the real returns not just hype but this will get hyped if the news is good. Went to 25p on the A5 announcement, regardless of its real worth as it wasn't quantified. Imagine what could happen if the 2 deeps land and the new shallows. The CPR will go up but there will be the P&D brigade talking it up with no valid justification as always. Only started discovering, initial seismic was wrong, oil is deeper, reserves larger, undiscovered elephants and billions of barrels...lol. I laugh but it's a very likely outcome.Smarty

[hiddendepths] 31/3/2017 06:54

Sigh! Embarrassed all over again. I was right about the prospects but totally wrong about what would happen. It was all rather strange really.... and remains so.

[xclusive2] 30/3/2017 21:39

Thank you Jonny. 7 figures plus or I take a chunk off the table. Hoping that I can take some profit and leave a considerable sum for the ride. If the news is really positive then maybe I'll leave it all on, not long to find out.

[dipla] 30/3/2017 18:25

Friday rns?

[ngms27] 30/3/2017 16:50

Smarty, you do indeed deserve a result :)

[xclusive2] 30/3/2017 16:45

Jonny,

If a couple of deeps are announced commercial then i believe you may have to rip up the script. Deeper, larger, part of Tengiz, part of Kashagan, a sea of oil...lol. You know what hype can do especially if any operational successes are stage managed.

A little premature but we deserve a result here, well i bloody well do !

Smarty

[ngms27] 30/3/2017 16:31

Lets put some context on this. The largest prospect was approx 98m barrels according to the CPR, two wells were drilled on this but one was deemed off structure / a different structure.

The ODT is much deeper than the CPR so potentially the resource is larger. The $1000 question is how much larger?

[stuart14] 30/3/2017 16:25

I'd be happy above 25p, would probably have to take a lot of the table at 50p+

Still holding the 1m shares!

[xclusive2] 30/3/2017 16:12

I think £2 was a huge underestimate Stu !I think the conversations were around billions of barrels and we'd need that to get to a £1+. 700m P2 would be a VERY good start

[stuart14] 30/3/2017 15:53

Come on HD, give us some fuel to fire those dreams? £1? £2?

I suspect i'd be gone long before then.

Having said that, having held for 10+ years now I may as well see the story out.

[xclusive2] 30/3/2017 15:36

A mere child dear boy.Good day on smallish volumes. £120k of spend delivering 12% growth, nice.More to come please.