Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[bluemango] 05/11/2024 10:33

#24316

Agreed, absolutely.

And Penrith, repeating the same thing ad nauseum doesn't make it true. No-one can defend the dire Comms from Casp, but it doesn't follow from that observation, that they want to take it private. The plan has always been to sell the lot at a decent premium, note the Kuat & Clive long term incentive and large payout if and when this reaches $800m market cap (around 26.2p a share).

Stop going on about the 'taking it private' stuff. Change the record, it's getting tedious. And it's wrong.

[the new norm] 05/11/2024 09:56

Up until I read Clives footnote in today's RNS I would agree with you P

Clives comments is a big reveal on Shallows sale and expectations for post disposal oil production

You don't make that comment if you are happy to see share price languish around 3p

And X makes a good point on the 4p price for WS they could easily have renegotiated this down to 3.2p reflecting current conditions, BUT THEY HAVEN'T, so this is also a big positive

[penrith] 05/11/2024 09:43

I don't not think they are short of cash at all.I think they do not want the share price to rise it is not in their interest. They are downplaying everything and only telling us what they are legally obliged to do so.

[jostrummer] 05/11/2024 09:42

Zeus like it! they are getting v friendly lately

[xclusive2] 05/11/2024 09:36

We don't agree ! They're not Private, they're a listed entity and until they're not, we plod on.Yep, they're doing what they want, nothing much changed there as they've had control of decision making forever. Et al, I don't understand why they don't crack on with WS now ? Weather meant to be better as is transportation. Some may think it's cash constraint as AR deal not done yet and may wobble ? That aside, they should have all the CE cash so let's crack on and replace the MJF production asap. Next share price catalyst is the AR deal and licence approvals. Currently they're on an operational go slow and we're going to find out whether that's down to cash or not but with continued production, $14m earning interest and CE dough, that doesn't make sense.

[penrith] 05/11/2024 09:11

Finally. Yes we agree. We are private in all but name only. I just wish they would get on with it. Death by a thousand cuts. Hopefully 5p or maybe 6. Certainly will not be lower than 4.

[xclusive2] 05/11/2024 08:59

P,Re decision making, it's been Private for over a decade.

[the new norm] 05/11/2024 08:27

I'm taking two positives from today's announcement

Clive says WS will give 'continuity of production' following disposal of the Shallows

So he thinks we are going to get the balance of the Shallows sale proceeds and he thinks WS will be producing 1600 bopd once a few wells have been drilled at WS

Another tick in Clives H2 to do checklist!

[penrith] 05/11/2024 08:18

Concert Party 53 percent and 4p base. All ducks being nicely lined up. They could easily have updated us on the other issues but why would they. Private investors are now completely irrelevant when it comes to decision making. It is now effectively private. Just my opinion.

[xclusive2] 05/11/2024 08:10

Oh and the fact that the nephew has taken shares at the 4p price and not renegotiated at current levels which would have generated another 20m+ shares. We must be grateful for small mercies. Hopefully this is the best return from a 4% dilution of the business.

[xclusive2] 05/11/2024 08:02

The biggest positive from today's announcement is the fact that the Kaz authorities have agreed the change of control. Some investors have been concerned re possible regulatory headwinds from the authorities re licences etc but hopefully they'll be forthcoming on B8 and BNG in the near term.West Shalva timeline has moved a quarter, nothing new there. Certainly no guarantees of oil but hopefully the dead camel hasn't drunk it all. In a serious note, if successful, they believe it replaces MJF . Worst case we pick up a station, a few roads and hopefully a Greggs :) Hopefully the sale goes through shortly, the B8 & BNG licences renewed so that we can continue to hunt the jam.

[dipla] 05/11/2024 07:12

Great news, maybe this is what was causing delays on the deal.

[the new norm] 04/11/2024 14:25

While we wait for an op update from Clive

A couple of small tenders have appeared on BiCo

One for the SY shallows and the other for SY Deeps

Both are enviro monitoring related

Perhaps the shallows tender helps get Sale across the line

The other getting the 25yr production licence signed off for the SY deeps

18 Nov end date for both tenders

#casp

[the new norm] 04/11/2024 10:54

Any Corporate Tax experts holding CASP?

We have been told by Clive in past Investment Presentations that while they sell their oil production to the local/domestic market the tax hit on profits is much lower than if they were to sell all oil at international prices.

FYAAs for CASP are prepared assuming it is a UK Company given its AIM listing status.

FYAA23 applies the UK Corp Tax rate 25% on CASP taxable profits

A tax bill of $3.7m for YE23

HOWEVER THIS IS ADJUSTED BY A DEDUCTION OF $2.8M TO REFLECT THE REALITY OF OPERATING AND BEING LIABLE TO KAZ TAX ON PROFITS

THE REAL TAX PAYABLE IS $900K IN FY23

WE SHOULD BEAR THIS IN MIND WHEN LOOKING AT THE ZEUS PROJECTIONS AS THEY USE THE UK CT 25% RATE WHEN CALCULATING EPS WHICH IS INCORRECT WHILE CASP SELLS OIL PRODUCTION TO THE LOCAL MARKETS WHICH IS LIKELY FOR AS LONG AS WAR IN UKRAINE CONTINUES

[penrith] 02/11/2024 13:15

Me neither but 5p is nice prospect for a newbie.

[onsideman] 02/11/2024 12:53

I can't say I'd be enamoured with 5p

Been here a very long time

[the new norm] 02/11/2024 12:13

Double checked the presentation slides from GM and they confirm BNG 1350 bopd and SY 250 bopd

Achieving $36 pob as at 24 Sep 24

That's $21m pa

Add say $3m profit from oil trading

So $2m per month looks accurate

In addition they will be getting at least $150k per month as interest on their $14m

IF 815 is now producing monthly cash flow looks even healthier!

3.2p looks a great entry price for a new investor if they can get a 56% return in just a few months at 5p!

[penrith] 02/11/2024 11:02

You saidHow long do we wait for a return, that's the big question.I am more interested in IF we get a return. I predicted 2years ago a price of 6p and now dropping that to 5p. That would still give me a 25% return but a poor return for the years I have been invested. I know you are very committed to this share but you must realise their actions are not poor communications or laziness. Something is happening that has got nothing to do with boat rental or oil output.Hopefully at the end of the very long day we end up with at least 5p.

[xclusive2] 02/11/2024 10:22

I can't say 100% as I can't see their bank accounts. I still see there will be a sensible return for investors. As per previous posts, the assets have more value than m/cap (my opinion) and worst case they start flogging them starting with BNG deeps following production licence. There will be interested parties as they know that Caspian have found oil but not skilled enough to commercialise it. No different to AR buying the shallows as they see the opportunity to deliver a better ROI. They could flog the barge too and that would generate a sensible sum. I could spin a very negative picture and come up with all the conspiracy theories but the large shareholders are building an asset base within the Caspian shell. They're not flogging their shares and doing sweetheart deals on the asset base isn't going to deliver what the big boys want. They'll soon the assets and buy new ones and eventually will sell the entire entity. How long do we wait for a return, that's the big question.

[penrith] 02/11/2024 09:57

Thanks for response.So at this stage we do not know if we have actually received the majority of boat money nor do we know the if the oil output is still at 1200 .Most AIM companies tend to exaggerate their performance Casp for some reason......appears to be very secretive about theirs.

[xclusive2] 02/11/2024 08:08

I asked the question at GM and proceeds were received and as per interim accounts statement below, the majority of cash received will be booked into H2. I don't believe they made a fortune from the first charter as they spent considerable sums readying the barge. Hopefully that won't be necessary for next charters IF they book them. I'm for selling the barge :)Re production, again I asked and production revenues expected as a minimum til completion date but obviously that has to continue if deal not completed. I expect that this revenue will desist after next tranche received. The charter for the first of two potential wells for a consortium in which Eni S.p,A, the Italian multinational energy company is the leading member commenced on time in July 2024 and was completed on 24 September 2024. Accordingly, the bulk of the revenue from the charter will be recorded in the second half of the financial year.

[penrith] 01/11/2024 18:18

X You say They have the CE cash and the current production revenue.How do you know that.

[xclusive2] 01/11/2024 18:08

It is total tosh. They have the CE cash and the current production revenue regardless of forward selling.

[the new norm] 01/11/2024 17:14

1350 bopd BNG and 250 bopd SY at date of interim report sign off which was
24 Sep 24

I'm just stressing this point as I am seeing elements in the social media universe trying to say CASP is using up the $14m already received to meet day to day costs and CASP will be in dire straits if shallow sale falls out of bed

I think this is utter tosh as the day to day expenses should be getting covered by the oil production income without touching the $14m which should be on deposit earning 14% deposit interest