#24496
If I was a point-scoring kind of person (I'm not, btw) then I'd be saying 'bookmark that post'. Seriously, it doesn't matter how jaded, cynical, fed up or whatever you are, you can't say with any significant certainty, what a share price can or can't achieve ; and definitely can't know it won't be 5p - such a modest amount more than the current level in the whole of 2025, and less than half the nomad's current estimate for risked asset valuation per share.
Fact is, nobody knows. |
Credock,If you believe that then I hope you're not a holder anymore. I'd cash up tomorrow and put it in the house-building sector as their share prices have been slaughtered but that is one sector whereby our Starmer/Rayner could help significantly. |
Maxim i can tell you with 1009 per cent certainty we will not see 5p in 2025 so dont get too excited. |
 I believe share price does rise but not hugely. The share price is dictated by PIs and there's too many stale bulls and traders selling into any rise. The $72m is probably 4 years worth of turnover but then you have to add in the additional profitability as operational costs drop through the floor.I'm looking at the value of the assets individually and much that it's very subjective, the individual deep blocks could be sold for significant sums and as stated many times, I believe that starts in late 25. Even without further success in BNG blocks I believe they'll generate $200m+ for the acreage. The oil has flowed and if/when they obtain production licences , they will be verysaleable. Then add in the CE value and add to the cash pile from likely AR deal. The current share price is far removed from asset value which I believe should be double figures. We're going to see cash generation from asset sales but can they commercialise the WS and B8 structures whilst any assets are sold. Asset sales will generate significant cash imo and with that comes the windfall dividends. This is all speculation but I stay invested to see the commercialisation of current asset base. |
#24492 352k buyer was somm (LSE) |
What does the price do if the AR deal completes ? Thoughts ? |
Good to see someone picking up a chunk at the close. Lets hope it's our CC forgetting he's in a closed period ;) Fancy some news next week, probably the completion of the AR deal. |
MMs applying a similar strategy as earlier in the week
On Tuesday they moved offer up to 3.3p and any buy orders >350k shares were 3.28p
Today it's 3.28p >150k shares
Game of ever decreasing circles ;-)
Anyone got the balls to buy 600k shares to make it gap up before weekend? I doubt it! ;-)
LOL
looks like we have a MM who can't shift CASP shares they are holding...poor soul is really trying hard but no takers
Love it when those parasites are made to squirm ;-) |
Agree Konil
I'm sure I read somewhere they have sunk $120m into the BNG deep structures and still no sign of oil flowing commercially
Will the G70 rig make a difference if they ever acquire one?
Will a farm in partner and the G70 be a better option for CASP?
The NPV of the cash already spent on the deeps must be north of $300m so a sale at anything less next year will be a loss in real terms but it might suit KO Family and LTHs if it pays out 3 or 4x current SP
We are at the stage where the next RNS could be transformational to share price...sitting on fence or selling up at this moment in time appear to be very risky options, when there might just be a huge spike in the share price just around the corner.
Clive knows the power of an intra day RNS! |
dipla, the way things have gone here, i doubt they will bring in a deep unless they get lucky during some remedial works. its more likely they will try and firm up oip numbers in the deep assets and sell. they wont get as much as they would do if sold with a flowing deep on each structure (or even one structure) but that seems to be beyond them.
so how much for the deeps without any flowing wells? no idea but some fancy numbers have been suggested. even if not quite as much as has been suggested, if whatever they get is added to the sale price of shallows (assuming shallow sale goes ahead) then there will be a sizeable amount to distribute as divi.
so next question will they do a divi? again no idea, but at some point they will want to extract some of the value from the company to offshore it away from kaz. they have set up the structure and corporate entities to do that.
each investor will have their own cost of holdings and targets but for me the potential divi could be large enough that i'd be happy to take that and let the shares ride into the future to see how they shape the business away from e&p.
admittedly mostly wishful conjecture, but as stated, at some point ko and clan and the cp will want to monetise their holdings. i'm hoping that will come in next 2 years or sooner and also hoping no skullduggery to disenfranchise the pi, so i can ride on their coat tails. |
Couldn't disagree more. The precise opposite applies; there's never been a more compelling price at which to hold or add, given the cash position, near term developments, and total asset value. |
Been here since roxi days, I think it's time to get out! Still no deep, just all talk |
500k dumped but hopefully those adding here are going to be rewarded. I'm expecting to see the AR completion news shortly. I believe all conditions will be met and if anything is holding it, it's probably the Kazakh bureaucracy. If it does complete pre year end deadline then the share price will start to move as the other material news nears -;Key events- Licence approvals at BNG/B8. This allows the continued testing of 803 and resumption of remedial work on other wells on BBG. I suspect Block 8 licence will be received first enabling the testing of the Akkuduk well already drilled.- W Shalva spuds in Q1 following completion of acquisition. This structure could replace MJF volume but as we know, it could also be non commercial but won't be long to find out.As stated many times, I believe that BNG will be up for sale next year following the remedial and testing work on all wells. They've already stated that the drilling is too difficult for them, the FDP and all infrastructure costs to high for them so the obvious solution is to sell the structures. Value will depend on outcomes on 803 and A5 . Caspian are moving into a cash generation phase and the AR deal demonstrates what can be achieved should they decide to sell assets. A lot more than the current share price and I believe all LTHs will eventually get that long awaited lucrative return from their investment , fingers x'd. |
Indeed.
Rather more then current level, that's for sure. |
BM
Care to hazard a guess where the share price would go if all the licence renewals come in at the same time as the Shallows sale completes
All wrapped up in one blockbuster RNS
CC caught the market out with his intra day RNS a few weeks ago and I really wouldn't rule out him using the same tactic in the future ;-) |
Interesting. Thank you |
A more appropriate question might be:
When were they last permitted to drill on blocks awaiting approval? Clear the bureaucratic logjam and the brakes are then finally off. |
Max
At a stretch you could say 4 months ago!
803 was flowing for a few days just before the licence renewal pause stopped the test
155 in July also flowing initially at 1000 bopd was also commercial but part of the Shallows sale |
When did they last get a commercial drilling success? |
IM
Cautiously optimistic we will get an update from CC before year end
He needs to deliver on his ultra positive comments from 15th July 2024 ;-) |
Think CC struggling here |
Offer jumped to 3.28p if you want to buy >350k
News coming? ;-)
Or MM playing games? |
Thanks X2
In an economic environment which is encountering a significant devaluation of their currency its probably beneficial to CASP to collect and hold USD in their bank account.
I presume they pay labour costs in Tenge after converting some of their USDs. Should result in a small improvement in profit margins, although accept things are on a pause at moment so these costs will be at historic low in any event.
Not sure why they want the Shallow sale proceeds paid in Tenge, maybe a Kaz gov requirement linked to kaz asset sales. Hopefully they can convert back to USD ASAP as the recent decline in KZT doesn't look like it's going to stop anytime soon. |
As far as I'm aware it's all $ |
Interims disclosed we are achieving $36 pob on local sales
Does anyone know if we get USD into the bank account or KZT equivalent? |
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