Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[pierre oreilly] 09/6/2020 23:11

My expectations (just my view of course) took account of the extra debt, as i said. Debt costs next to nowt these days, so servicing it doesn't cost much - certainly no problem for ccl under normal circumstances. They can restart the divi at any level they want so, imv, they'll rebase it quite low and have a policy to increase it by cpi+ every year. That appeals to institutions rather than simply not paying a divi for years and years. Selling cruises won't be a problem at all - lots are champing at the bit - plus they'll starts at 50% capacity for a while (still very profitable at that level btw). Most ccl lines giving 125% future cruise credit for cancelled cruises - that will encourage bookings (even if prices are up 25% on last year!).

Someone recently said the saudis made a bad investment here - they are probably up a billion atm iirc, n a couple of months. Well if that's bad, I'd like to see the level of gain that poster must have made.

[grahamburn] 09/6/2020 20:24

One significant drag on your expectations, Pierre, will be the unlikely reinstatement of dividend payments in the foreseeable future, given the massive increase in debt.

On an allied point, though, suppose it's possible that the level of shareholders' onboard credit might be reviewed in an upwards direction in an attempt to encourage a potentially "warm" target market to return to the high seas.

[pierre oreilly] 09/6/2020 19:36

I meant to post £60, being its high point (from memory, looks like 55 quid was the actual high a couple of years ago). So I'm expecting £27 when things get back to normal in a year's time.

[arai] 09/6/2020 11:45

Pierre, £6 or £16 ?? I am sure you mean £36.

[pierre oreilly] 09/6/2020 11:32

NT wakehurst for me this pm, first time for a while. Things are slowly (too slowly for my liking) normalising.

[pierre oreilly] 09/6/2020 11:27

Depends how far you look ahead - the sm generally looks 2 years ahead. Like most businesses atm, ccl is effectively bust on an ongoing basis, along with airlines, tourism adn just about all else. They are all non-businesses atm. In two years time, I'd expect this to be back to normal operations and their very fat profit from each cruise - but they'll have debt and other costs so i doubt they'll return to 6 quid in that time, but half way there is a good probability in my view at that time, with probably a lowered divi starting to be paid again. 1 days sailing pays for 1 week lying idle, that's what was worked out roughly a few weeks ago.

No, ccl won't be serving lobsters tomorrow, but maybe in a months, more likely 2 months and pretty certainly 3 months, with about a year to get fully up and running again, with stuff yourself buffets, theatres and tours full. Many people will value cruises more and therefore go on more having had them unavailable for many months.

The Saudis kept this afloat, along with the mega cash raise at the start of it all.

[grahamburn] 09/6/2020 11:24

Cunard gone even further than P & O in its cancellations dates (Queen Mary/Queen Victoria up to 1 November, Queen Elizabeth up to 23 November). The RNS is more explicit in its justifications for doing so. Though they are clearly giving considerable thought to how to recommence, the main takeaways are that ports/countries the world over aren't opening up any time soon whilst its clientele are truly international.

[onehanded] 09/6/2020 10:31

i'm optimistic for 2021 but this year is a complete wipe out as delays keep extending. That's why I have a £10 target and not lower.

[go_baby_go] 09/6/2020 10:20

Guy, this virus is not like a common cold, flu virus mutates. Covid-19 doesn't. If it does return its likely to be a less aggressive strain. This is likely to die on its own like passed virus SARS. Pharmaceuticals are in a race to develop a vaccine before it disappears. So they can profit from it.

[netcurtains] 09/6/2020 09:51

onehanded: I think you're being too optimistic. Many pundits think there will never be a workable vaccine. The virus is too like the common cold (changeable). Dont assume a cure will be found anytime soon.

[onehanded] 09/6/2020 09:34

it will go to £10 when it is realised that no ports want 3,000 passengers getting off until vaccine for the virus and ships half full and all taking their 25% extra on their on board bill vouchers. Time to get in is when a vaccine is passed. Australia says no cruise ships from non Australia ports till next year! Expect profits to be banked, as shorts rise.

[netcurtains] 09/6/2020 09:08

why has this been rising - its so counter intuitive!

why would anyone want to be within 100 miles of a cruise ship???

am i missing something? do they have another part of the business that is viable?

[sutton3] 09/6/2020 08:12

You and me both Sambuca but regretting it at the moment with the further rises this morning.

[sambuca] 09/6/2020 07:46

I sold out 2 lots yesterday so have achieved my goal of 102 free shares to get my obs
at the moment I have my freebies and 128 @ £17.20 ps. The rise over the last few days has been too quick on no solid news to be sustainable imho.
I will continue to trade if the price drops back, where to I havent decided yet will watch with interest.

Sam

[stupmy] 08/6/2020 12:09

It's already pretty well a nonsense at least in France. Although business have to put in place actions to cover state regulations on social distancing, many people are going about their business as if there are no regulations. That can only go on so long before the whole system of regulation falls apart. It'll be a distant memory in a months time. At least that's my view.

[andy flower] 08/6/2020 11:43

Do you have a link for the historical analysis?Q2 earnings could push this even higher unless of course there is a correction ...

[2000max] 08/6/2020 10:19

S & P now on pe 30.2 be careful guys

[arai] 08/6/2020 00:54

"blue rinse swingers" oh to be the onboard viagra dealer.

So funny.

[ny boy] 07/6/2020 23:35

Health passports, all checked in advance, so everyone is clear once onboard, let spin the bottle recommence for the blue rinse swingers lol

[pierre oreilly] 07/6/2020 23:04

Buffets will be served instead of self service. They'll sail at 50/60% capacity. They won't be allowed to sail until the chance of catching covid/norovirus/flu is comparable to the chance on land, and in practice will be lower. Requirements for boarding will be quite strict, i.e. if you turn up with a cough or cold symptons or a high temperature, you'll be denied boarding.

Any other question marks?

[sambuca] 07/6/2020 21:03

bookbroker
Good points but you have to look at the future not the present. All the points you have made were the same 4 weeks ago since then the share price has increased by just over 50%, the proof is in the pudding.

Sam

[bookbroker] 07/6/2020 18:23

This stock is ridiculous, huge fund-raising, delay to future P&O sailings, how are they going to socially distance on the ship, feed the guests with buffets, so many question marks. That is if you do not mind being ill within a few days of sailing.

[rettah] 06/6/2020 13:34

Arai
Yes, you are correct. Thanks for pointing it out.

[arai] 06/6/2020 11:19

Funny you mention the shows, I used to run 2 theatres and obviously both closed at the moment, business resumption plan includes bars staying shut, 1/4 occupancy, extra cleaning staff, no intention of opening until next year at the earliest, just chatting with the tech staff last night. 2 of the people who used to work for me are on the ships (RC), just arrived home after a long mooring in the US. No contract renewals yet, nothing. Sad times but it will return in some guise.

A lot more to come in the next few months, second spike, mass unemployment and so it goes on.