Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[srpactive] 13/1/2018 20:17

t

I believe that decision was made months ago, so why
did whoever announce it on Friday at the height
of the worry. It achieved a lower share price which
was proceeded by massive volume for who's benefit?

dyor very high risk.

[haywards26] 13/1/2018 20:10

hxxp://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/13/carillion-bosses-make-last-ditch-plea-rescue/

[sux_2bu] 13/1/2018 19:57

https://youtu.be/FgTxdH7PVAQ

[dealy] 13/1/2018 19:55

Nothing like a crisis to focus the minds. No choice but to agree a deal tomorrow. They will trade their way out of it. No administration. Not much value for shareholders but no bankruptcy. All in my humble opinion

[highasakite] 13/1/2018 19:55

Thats it folks.

administrators in Monday am.

Shareholders lose everything.

[tonysss13] 13/1/2018 19:44

the crash started because of Kleinman's story of administrators on standby

[srpactive] 13/1/2018 19:36

f

The news story was just before lunch.

[frazboy] 13/1/2018 19:32

thanks hpcg, i had wondered what the trigger was, i had assumed that is was the sky news story, but news that the withdrawal of credit had occurred may be a better explanation. however i can't see from the webpage the timing of the publication (only the date), so I can't confirm that to be true.

[topvest] 13/1/2018 19:27

Its a bit surprising that they were still giving credit insurance before this date isn't it given the dire situation and obvious outcome?

[srpactive] 13/1/2018 19:26

h

The collapse came just before lunch, we all know what
happened then.

[hpcg] 13/1/2018 19:23

Insurance Insider published on Friday that trade credit insurers were no longer offering insurance to Carillion suppliers and subs. www.insuranceinsider.com appears to be down as a write, but City A.M. has a derivative report Cash up front from now on; the working capital they had manufactured by getting paid on time by the government and then hanging out their suppliers for 4 months or more, evaporates. CLLN has been running something that is analogous to a Ponzi where they needed ever more projects so that government payments could cover up for the fact that project were often cash negative. This becomes a viscous cycle where they have to low bid to guarantee getting the volume. I'm pretty sure there is nothing illegal in doing this, but it is inevitable that the plates in the air will one day come crashing down.

post script - insurance insider web site is back as I finish this

I should imagine this (Euler Hermes et al refusing cover) is what triggered the share price collapse on Friday as it means CLLN will struggle to trade going forward.

[rcturner2] 13/1/2018 19:16

The most heavily shorted share on the LSE for a reason.

Shorters know more than the average arrogant and smug pensioner.

[srpactive] 13/1/2018 19:07

c

If there was a time the government needed help from the Saudi's
it is now.

dyor very high risk.

[coxsmn] 13/1/2018 18:48

Srp, Reading about Carillion on the internet, there are v many schools, hospitals, prisons, military and Network Rail that rely on Carillion for maintenance. If they have paid in advance, they stand to lose heavily and will have to find replacement contractors. Carillion employees and pensioners may lose jobs and pensions. If the Government bails them out, where will it find the money while it is trying to bale out the NHS?HSBC, Santander, Lloyds, RBS and Barclays will all want the Govt to bail them out! It's like the financial crisis of 10 years ago.

[spob] 13/1/2018 18:16

Good point there about the RNS the other day. re:11161

When you see that for a company in this kind of situation it is likely because the FCA have told the company to release that RNS

"We know of no reason for the recent share price rise"

It is basically so that the shareholders cannot say they were not forewarned at a later date.

The company is likely saying, this is a desparate situation and the equity is quite possibly worth nothing.

And another good point is that when you reach a situation like this the press coverage makes things 10 times worse, because suppliers/contractors suddenly want up front payments at higher rates.

[minerve] 13/1/2018 18:16

I agree with Vince. Let the thing fail. Bond holders/creditors need to again understand what risk is! That is why they get reasonable yield. They shouldn't be able to have their cake and eat it.

[nigelpm] 13/1/2018 18:11

Vince is right to be fair - take on the commercial risk then you shouldn't have a get of jail free card.

The banks to be fair were a special case and literally HAD to be saved.

[dadsarebest] 13/1/2018 18:11

Cc, I suspect the LADs are probably more like 50k per day, Sandwell, Liverpool and Aberdeen are all PFI jobs, all the design risk effectively sits with the contractor, may be able to go after your designers PI insurance but this takes years. LADs are huge because the time you overrun you are eating into the SPVs concession period. These contracts are high risk, great cash profile at the start, but ultimately can hang you.

[sux_2bu] 13/1/2018 18:06

Vince Cable not wanting Govt to get involved.He wants share holders, banks, etc, to take the hit.

[nigelpm] 13/1/2018 18:02

If CLLN has EBIDA of around 100M then we might see a post recap and sorting out of situation of 1bn. That means current equity really worth around £10M at most.

So probably looking at something like 2-3p/share.

That assumes a deal is concluded of course. And the absolute best one could hope for in this sorry state of affairs.

[samdb] 13/1/2018 17:45

I hope everyone understands that any government bailout would be to keep the company going to fulfil its contracts, they won't be bailing out shareholders.There is no equity left. The ownership of CLLN will be shared between the banks and government.

[the stinger] 13/1/2018 17:21

Unfortunately, I doubt very much this will be open to trade Monday anyway. Surely it will be suspended until confirmation / or an outcome either way is known.