Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[kirk 6] 27/11/2017 10:20

Due a big recovery biw

[wallywoo] 27/11/2017 09:01

Not wasting my time excell, I find this scenario interesting. And if I stop 1 person (as stated when this was £1.80 too) buying this rubbish that is a bonus.

[excell1] 27/11/2017 08:19

Keep posting wally and wasting your time. Like I am wasting mine lol.
Will not make a deal of difference if no one posted on here.

[wallywoo] 27/11/2017 08:16

excel, lol. I remember you posting the exact same post when this was 55p. And you are posting that people who are short are dishonest!!

It is not our fault that this company is a dogs dinner. The only reason this won't have a rights issue is because the current share price means it can't raise enough cash to solve any problems. Money flowing out, unable to sell the assets they intended. It looks very much like administration coming to me.

[kingston78] 26/11/2017 23:18

I suspect that the company may go bust before the new CEO comes on board. The accounts of the previous years could not have been correct if there are massive write offs this year. Write offs and provisions are made as and when considered necessary after careful and regular reviews. The earlier years' accounts may well have been overstating profit massively, with profits from new contracts covering the loss making ones and stringing it out from year to year, presenting a falsely profitable business.

All is revealed when the music stops because not only is there no cash there are few or no profitable new contracts covering sufficiently the losses of the existing ones, hence the chicken has come home to roost.

Assessing and taking attributable profit from a long term contract is one of the most important work that a technically competent accountant has to deal with, and by adopting a prudent approach.


It is possible that further nasty things have not yet been uncovered. Such events would accelerate the rate of destruction. Government cannot put pressure on banks and other lenders to be lenient on the company. Witness the financial scandal and near collapse of Lloyds Bank taking over HBOS.

Meanwhile many suppliers are unhappy with the new payment terms. They must be all feeling nervous. New customers will think twice giving business to the company. It is suffering from all fronts. If an investigation by a regulatory authority were to take place on potential irregularities it will be the last straw.

[balbains324] 26/11/2017 22:13

I hope for for your own sake dealy you are right. I'm still holding my position but not loosing any sleep as I knew this is a big gamble. If it gets to 50p in 3 months I will buy you a drink down the local Wetherspoons during happy hour and we can have a good laugh with Sheila the slag.

[pyueck] 26/11/2017 21:16

Sparky, even if you are right...the shareholders of the banks didn't do great out of that one.

[sparky333] 26/11/2017 20:43

The banks have to be very careful if it was not for the government the whole UK financial markets would have collapsed.With CLLN so embedded in U.K. Government project I expect some serious pressure will be applied to the lenders.

[excell1] 26/11/2017 19:58

With so many negative posts here,why do those that are short or work for those that are short post so frequently ? If you are so convinced that the company is
broken then why waste your valuable time trying to persuade others.Let the company go to the wall on it's own. Perhaps though you are not as convinced as your arguments suggest. It would appear that the banks are willing to extend the time until April next year when the new CEO takes over and covenants will not be broken in 2017.

[kirk 6] 26/11/2017 19:43

Dealy so are you expecting there not to be a fundraise and just an extension of the debt facility and waver of covenants! Do you really think that ? Would like it to be so with a risky long punt now.

[dealy] 26/11/2017 18:58

Last 2 posts have not provided counter arguments to my points. Just re-iterating baseless hysteria

[topvest] 26/11/2017 17:53

It's quite interesting reading some of the posts above. There appears to be a massive sense of denial on those that still own shares in this company. It's obvious that the company is in dire straights. I think their likely demise could be the major news story between Christmas and New Year given the collateral damage in the public sector.

[sux_2bu] 26/11/2017 17:24

It's bust.

1p target.

[dealy] 26/11/2017 17:24

If you are such a believer in book value than short amazon which trades at 24 times book value.Another metric worth considering is Ev/ebitda. Ev here (net debt plus market cap) is currently about 1 billion and steady state Ebitda is about 300m. That gives a value of 3.3. Companies regularly sell for 6 times ebitda in mature industries

[dealy] 26/11/2017 17:12

The reported net assets of 729m at the end of 2016 and then took 1.2 billion in charges to arrive at negative net assets. That was not a cash charge. Going forward the company should be able to generate 200m per year in profits (no taxes). Those future profits have a value (at least 1 billion pounds ) and are not on the balance sheet. So be careful focusing on book value alone. Value is future profits

[fenners66] 26/11/2017 16:43

Dealy even with your blinkers you can see that Clln are very much like Jarvis and tullow are not.
Save me looking up Tullow did they have NEGATIVE £400m assets prior to a rights issue?


Come clean how much are you down ? 70%?

[kirk 6] 26/11/2017 14:12

No just for info and not really bullish just expecting a dead cat bounce to mid 20s. Should be next week

[calahan] 26/11/2017 13:26

@ kirk6 - You appear to be bullish of this share. In which case you do realise that article you posted is bearish don't you? Unless you're just posting it for info, in which case good show for posting an article that's contrary to your position.

[dealy] 26/11/2017 13:22

He recommends buying ncc at 30 times earnings after it has alreafy had a huge recovery. Lemming

[kirk 6] 26/11/2017 13:08

Either way nothing goes down in a straight line so expect a bounce Monday

[dealy] 26/11/2017 13:08

And these guys are never wrong , right?

[sux_2bu] 26/11/2017 13:06

Lets repeat the target.



Broker Liberum certainly thinks so. 'Sell' it screams, slapping a price target of just 5p on the shares. UBS goes further, given a significant deterioration in cash collection.

"Our valuation was already in slight negative equity value today and with higher debt and lower earnings this would widen," it says. "We set our price target at 1p".

[sux_2bu] 26/11/2017 13:05

Broker Liberum certainly thinks so. 'Sell' it screams, slapping a price target of just 5p on the shares. UBS goes further, given a significant deterioration in cash collection.

"Our valuation was already in slight negative equity value today and with higher debt and lower earnings this would widen," it says. "We set our price target at 1p".

[sux_2bu] 26/11/2017 13:04

1p is the target of hedge funds