Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[sparky333] 17/8/2017 15:08

Haike starting to shift gear ahead of H1 results in Sept.

[careful] 17/8/2017 12:21

you make a good point about the unreliability of profit.
remember the last Fred Goodwin profit of £10bn at RBS.
Audited as a 'true and fair record'.

[calahan] 17/8/2017 11:55

@ careful - "over the last 4 years the typical annual profit has been £150m."

Did you miss the part where they just wrote off five years of profits to the tune of £850m? So they have not been typically making ~£150m for the past few years at all. Yes, they were reporting they were making amounts in that ballpark, and yes if you check the results from those years then you will find those sort of figures being given. But those figures have since been shown to be (very very) erroneous, hence the recent £850m write off, hence why the current share price is ~50p and the company neck deep in debt.

If you think this is a good risk/reward play, or just an educated gamble, then by all means good luck to you. But if you are buying here based on anything to do with the past published results, and in particular the profit being reported in them, then I think you might want to re-evaluate a few things because IMO you are mistaken if you believe Carilion have actually been making anything like a ~£150m profit for the past few years.

[careful] 17/8/2017 11:06

a profit of £30m would make todays price look a bargain.
over the last 4 years the typical annual profit has been £150m.
sometimes it is the shorter that are delusional.
The smart ones will be out by now.

[wallywoo] 17/8/2017 10:59

some people are just delusional to the end. Good luck, careful

[careful] 17/8/2017 10:56

so many companies fit that description.
a modest rights issue and that goes away.

net assets of 720m last year end.
cash flow positive.

since the recent troubles a cash injection is needed.
plus good management.

[deanroberthunt] 17/8/2017 09:48

techically insolvent, if it wasn't a construction version of the banks "too big to fail" it would end up in administration, equity is all but worthless, and has a negative net asset value

[sparky333] 17/8/2017 09:42

Haike on the move ahead of results in sept

[kulvinder] 17/8/2017 08:38

Anyone who bought yesterday at the low for a quick trade already in profit, this is where the dogfights between the shorts and longs become interesting as it will not be easy to know if it shorts buying back and or just sustained buying by longs on recovery.

[excell1] 17/8/2017 08:36

Try telling that to BT.

[fenners66] 17/8/2017 08:31

Pension deficit £800m compared to zero profitability will take infinity to repair.....

[excell1] 17/8/2017 08:19

Still say no RI,a merger or tie up with another construction company expected.We will see when this closed period is over.Close ties with government,so expect further contracts.Don't think the government will want the 43,000 employees on the dole. Too many here with vested interests in bringing this down.Short from £2+ was profitable but from here you lot are taking one hell of a gamble.Expect a lift into results/review.

[careful] 17/8/2017 08:14

pension deficit spread over 30 years compared to £5.2bn turnover is manageable.

[curriedquaker] 17/8/2017 07:32

Ticking time bomb..... pension revaluation due in 2018....was £393m in 2015, forecast to rise to £800m. That is 3 times current market valuations. Never mind the current trading debts. Sorry guys this is a corporate basket case.

[racg] 17/8/2017 06:57

Here we go with the shill line again. Amusing.

[oakville] 17/8/2017 05:07

In Manchester they are everywhere and I'm sure it's the same in all big cities.
Surely they won't go under? !!!

[fenners66] 17/8/2017 01:00

Careful > "impressive order book"

Impressing whom exactly?


This is a repeat of post 7295:

Careful - I believe you also refer to their huge order book


Did you read

"Only undertaking future construction work on a highly selective basis and via lower-risk procurement routes."


Basically that means we do not trust the prices quoted in the order book and we will be walking away from it

So their solution is not to do the work as they know they are likely to mess it up.

[fjgooner] 16/8/2017 22:02

But turnover without meaningful profit is pointless. As margins erode, so does the case for investment.

[careful] 16/8/2017 21:47

how can you mention a tiny company like vog at the same time as CLLN?
under £30m turnover vs. over £5bn for CLLN.

[rcturner2] 16/8/2017 20:28

Actually careful about 1% of listed companies go bust every year. So it is a fairly common occurrence.

[grahamburn] 16/8/2017 20:25

Also worth remembering that it's only a little over three and half years when Balfour Beatty were virtually written off as a viable business, even though the share price did hold up better than Carillion.

Now..... what would have happened to Carillion had their approach to Balfour been accepted?!!!

[racg] 16/8/2017 19:57

But Kaz indubitably is not clln.

Glen is not Kaz.

Wow, typing tripe such fun.

Bog off shills, your time is up.