Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 04/8/2017 12:53

I prefer to concentrate on the "facts" as presented

[bakunin] 04/8/2017 12:48

Either the shorters are getting desperate to knock this down for an exit point or some of them are a bit stupid. There is a shorter/troll (whichever) on the LSE board known as gillpat who has blatantly told people not to buy (because he "knows" that it is still going down), has revealed quite a lot about his past as a banker, finally at LTSB, and that he gets his "advice" from an analyst (presumably somebody he knows from his days at the aforementioned bank) who has a perfect crystal ball.
Anybody with a barrister as a friend would be able to take this guy to the cleaners if CLLN doesn't go down from now onwards.

[kulvinder] 03/8/2017 18:59

British Bulls - Buy Signal;

[bigdazzler] 03/8/2017 18:19

excell13 Aug '17 - 14:15 - 7305 of 7306 0 0
Sat around the fire,you located in the artic?



Whilst you are sat in an attic bedsit???

Come on excell1 throw us a bone. Just a little snippet from the master investor.

[kulvinder] 03/8/2017 16:43

Look at them buys after the bell. Wow!!

[excell1] 03/8/2017 14:15

Sat around the fire,you located in the artic?

[bigdazzler] 03/8/2017 13:21

Go on excell1 what's your next move? We are all sat round the fire waiting for your pearls of authoritive wisdom.

[excell1] 03/8/2017 11:15

58p is still massively oversold.Should never have gone below the 70's.

[festario] 03/8/2017 11:14

53p was way oversold, I wish I'd spotted that and had free funds this morning.

[auson1] 03/8/2017 10:29

Agreed they could only raise approx £100M after expenses.
Interesting news story here.
The government's favourite infrastructure and engineering consultant, CH2M Hill, is to be taken over by its US rival in a $3.35 billion deal. A fortnight after The Times revealed that Jacobs had approached CH2M Hill, the two companies announced the transaction. CH2M Hill is best known as the controversial delivery partner for the first phase of the government's High Speed Two railway. Last month it landed the contract to oversee the redevelopment of the houses of parliament and it was one of the key players in the delivery of the 2012 Olympics.

[bakunin] 03/8/2017 10:17

Rational management would not do a rights issue at this share price level.
It would merely allow the company to survive, not create value (which is the sole purpose of a private corporate entity).
Some form of merger or takeover is the only solution that would create value if the cash flow situation cannot be improved by operational means.
CLLN is not a small-cap AIM company, so professional management will be rational.

[kulvinder] 03/8/2017 09:22

The light seems to have switched on again!!! Bulls against Bears it is a bit of a dog fight at the moment.

[rickmay] 03/8/2017 08:03

R.I.P 2017/ Could last early 2018.Switch the lights off the last person.

[careful] 03/8/2017 08:00

you could be right.
your negative sentiment has driven the share price well down.
but sometimes, maybe more often than not, these situations where everyone is gloomy become high risk opportunities.

Investment strategy;
If a share suddenly falls by 50%, then buy.
There would have been many opportunities to do this.
I suspect that despite a few accidents, you would have made lots of money.

[fjgooner] 02/8/2017 22:18

That no-hoper was not that careful in his research then before taking a long punt here and trying the old ramp-up? What a shame.

[fenners66] 02/8/2017 19:25

Careful - I believe you also refer to their huge order book


Did you read

"Only undertaking future construction work on a highly selective basis and via lower-risk procurement routes."


Basically that means we do not trust the prices quoted in the order book and we will be walking away from it

So their solution is not to do the work as they know they are likely to mess it up.

[sux_2bu] 02/8/2017 19:17

Double bottom on the chart.

Remember the golden rule............3 strikes and OUT.

Fingers xx'd knows ;-)

[fenners66] 02/8/2017 19:10

To go back to their original profit warning :

" Deterioration in cash flows on a select number of construction contracts led the Board to undertake an enhanced review of all of the Group's material contracts"

It will have been forecast as cash coming in - because it had been billed and its non-arrival led to the review.

So lack of cash triggered it.

At the end of the day you can bill what you like but if the client refuses to pay for your work - we assume its not up to spec or something - you cannot hide that from your boss forever.

As far as Careful's collecting from the middle east and clients paying up eventually read this bit:-

"GBP470m to overseas markets, the majority of which relates to exiting markets in the Middle East and Canada. The associated future net cash outflows in respect of these contracts is GBP100m-GBP150m (primarily in 2017 and 2018"

They are walking away - but expect to still have to PAY OUT £100-150M - did you read that ?

[rcturner2] 02/8/2017 18:49

It's not about collecting money owed.

It's about the fact that they quoted prices on contracts which are now loss making. They were recording profits on contracts as they went along and then getting to the end and realising there is a massive overspend, hence why they are having to take a charge against previous years' profits.

[fenners66] 02/8/2017 17:49

careful - your professed blind optimism in collecting debts that the Board has clearly written off astounds me.

You don't own shares in ALPHA PYRENEES do you?

I say that because the Board there said that they were effectively an insolvent property company about 2 years ago - they made it explicit in their reports that the properties were being sold to pay off debt and that the debt was not covered. There would be no value realisation to shareholders - yet they are not suspended and some still buy shares in the hope that, that is not the case!

The Board here got to find out everything was s hit after not collecting - they have written £850m off the contracts - as a FIRST stab at it - we know that its likely to get worse - and you still think they are going to get clients to pay up!

Open your eyes!

[wallywoo] 02/8/2017 14:03

I remember those times too, careful. But most of them came at a time when the market was on its knees. This time out the market is fine, its just clln on its knees.

I don't dispute this could rally from here, there are just no clues that it will and that makes it a HUGE gamble, as others have said this could be worth nothing and that is a big loss to take. Better to wait for a clue or 2.

[careful] 02/8/2017 13:52

as for the never ending battle with clients who are reluctant to pay and make any excuse not to,
that is the game.
should resolve itself in time.

[careful] 02/8/2017 13:50

what is Haik time?

[sparky333] 02/8/2017 13:47

Sounds like it's Haik time.