Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[poacher45] 25/6/2017 10:42

It was obvious that there were big buyers around on Friday by the market makers marking the price up 4.5p from the beginning. There had been very low volume during the last week. Any hint of good news could move the share price dramatically.

[11_percent] 25/6/2017 10:34

RC works for the shorting hedge funds.

[nomdeplume] 25/6/2017 10:27

RC : I'm sure you are correct, but I would point out that neither KC's nor my posts refer to the UT number. We both noticed the high volume within a limited range and commented on possible causes. Your views on that would be welcome. (From me, at least.)

[rcturner2] 25/6/2017 08:48

Once again we have people posting on here who do not know what the uncrossing trade UT is.

[kcsham] 25/6/2017 00:13

One more thing, the first and third trades are "over the counter" and "negotiated" trades, that could be significant.K C

[kcsham] 25/6/2017 00:04

nomdeplume - On your list, the first and third trade are buy with a total of 1,707,523.The last two trades are sell with a total of 163,049.The second UT trade should be a volume trade with a mixed trades of half buy and half sell. I have double checked the Advfn's trade record, it is certainly marked in red as a sell. I am not sure why.The important fact here is that the two buying trades are substantial and could be bought by a single or two big buyers. Big players are buying into the game!In a day, buy and sell should be balance to each other. However, buy and sell by small investors like me will have no significant effect on the major direction of the share price K C

[kcsham] 24/6/2017 22:24

nomdeplume - Whatever we try I don't believe we are going to get any answer. A lot of time when I notice some abnormal share movement, I just make a note of caution for myself.K C

[kcsham] 24/6/2017 22:11

nomdeplume - I should not ask question about Kingfisher on the board, just try my luck.Thanks for your response anyway.K C

[nomdeplume] 24/6/2017 21:31

KC : My post represented some thoughts, rather than a rational argument. Taken as a whole, for me,my post raises more questions than answers. These are the largest trades:

23-Jun 199.87p 1,544,157 £3,086,340 Buy OT
23-Jun 198.10p 586,122 £1,161,108 Sell UT
23-Jun 199.21p 163,366 £325,444 Buy NT
23-Jun 198.01p 100,000 £198,013 Sell OT
23-Jun 199.63p 63,049 £125,865 Sell O

Look at the last three. not an exact match, but it really does look like a transfer of shares. The biggest question for me is not who might buy, but who was selling?

A takeover is not in the shorters interest. Any hint of a takeover would suggest that the shorters would close their short. However, hedge funds do not just short shares, often they seek to manipulate situations to their advantage.

So, while one hedge fund might be shorting a share, another might be building up a position in the same company.

I think we both feel that there is something unusual about the current situation. Like you, I hope we get some clarity soon. For information, I bought in at 201p.

I'm afraid I can't offer too any help on Kingfisher.

[nomdeplume] 24/6/2017 21:31

KC : My post represented some thoughts, rather than a rational argument. Taken as a whole, for me, my post raises more questions than answers. These are the largest trades:

23-Jun 199.87p 1,544,157 £3,086,340 Buy OT
23-Jun 198.10p 586,122 £1,161,108 Sell UT
23-Jun 199.21p 163,366 £325,444 Buy NT
23-Jun 198.01p 100,000 £198,013 Sell OT
23-Jun 199.63p 63,049 £125,865 Sell O

Look at the last three. not an exact match, but it really does look like a transfer of shares. The biggest question for me is not who might buy, but who was selling?

A takeover is not in the shorters interest. Any hint of a takeover would suggest that the shorters would close their short. However, hedge funds do not just short shares, often they seek to manipulate situations to their advantage.

So, while one hedge fund might be shorting a share, another might be building up a position in the same company.

I think we both feel that there is something unusual about the current situation. Like you, I hope we get some clarity soon. For information, I bought in at 201p.

I'm afraid I can't offer any help on Kingfisher.

[kcsham] 24/6/2017 19:12

Hi, is anybody on this board holding Kingfisher shares? I am tempting to purchase some on Monday. Any suggestions? I am ready to listen.K C

[kcsham] 24/6/2017 19:05

nomdeplume - I looked at the trading pattern yesterday, I assumed the shorters was buying back a lot of the shares and managed to hold the share price at a very stable level and wondered if the shorters were closing their bet.You mentioned: "It would not be unusual for the entity making a takeover to purchase some shares before making a bid - they cost a lot less......." Yes! You could be right. It is possible and quite an usual way to build up their holdings before any action.You and I are guessing but based on certain reasons. I am content.K C

[kcsham] 24/6/2017 18:08

nomdeplume - Thanks for your information. Let us see what will happen on Monday's trade if it would shed any light.K C

[nomdeplume] 24/6/2017 17:24

Did anyone watch the rugby? Good match, wrong result!

[nomdeplume] 24/6/2017 17:19

KC : Friday's trades were unusual: high volume and narrow range - i.e. buys and sells roughly equal. "Is something happening?" Well, Barclays Stockbrokers showed a number of quite large trades, well out of my league; so something happened.

Also, the sells must have come from somewhere. High volume + narrow range smacks of collusion, It would not be unusual for the entity making a takeover to purchase some shares before making a bid - they cost a lot less.

Clearly, the hedge funds shorting are not full of idiots. All the data points to to a sound undervalued company, as has been reiterated on this site again and again. So, what is it they think they know?

Sorry, I don't have any inside knowledge of a takeover, but it has to be a possibility. Look at the share price chart for a year ago - big rise after the trading statement. One way or the other, we may know more fairly soon.

[kcsham] 24/6/2017 11:24

The share price of Carillion was oscillating within a very narrow range of 1p from 11:00 to the market closure, the volume of trade was very high as well. Is something happening?nomdeplume - A possible takeover, are you sure? I believe the chance of that is very slim. But I guess (just a guess) something positive could be in the making.K C

[edmundshaw] 23/6/2017 23:14

Oh they will "just taking extra profits" of course. So clever. Don't know about pink elephants, but I am sure I saw something that colour cruising just above the con trails...

[nomdeplume] 23/6/2017 21:43

shorttracker.com will make interesting reading next week. It looks as though at least one of the hedge funds has reduced their holding. Either that or today's big trades were related to an initial stake in a takeover bid.

[kcsham] 23/6/2017 20:30

The word to describe your experience is: hallucination - n.1. a sensory experience of something that does not exist outside the mind, caused by various physical and mental disorders, or by reaction to certain toxic substances, and usually manifested as visual or auditory images.The above is a proper definition that I can find in a proper English dictionary.K C

[kcsham] 23/6/2017 19:10

Candid investor - 22 Jun 2017 - 18:53 - 4938 of 4966 - 1My personal estimate is 60 pence but may only fall to 75 pence.Does the above post look like written by a fully qualified accountant? No! Surely not.Full of imagination without a base. "......get a room......" How can a professional say something like that and be so low and filthy.".......in my experience if something looks like an elephant, has a huge trunk and charges whilst grunting then it probably is an elephant...if it's also pink it will probably answer to the name Carillion...." How often you had those experience? For you own good, stop using drugs.Oh! Don't bother to give me a reply. I will not be interested to response. If you are not seriously sick, please don't mention my name in any of your post in the future unless you are really cannot control yourself, I shall forgive you. Now, let us pray .........K C

[candid investor] 23/6/2017 18:03

Hump.. Yes I spelt it as one word but my auto spell checker 'helpfully' made it into two words but you picked up on it....did you also notice the deck chairs had not been stacked up properly on the titanic when it went down ?? , I think you need to get a life...or if you continue flirting with KC then book a room at least..
Not that's it's anything to do with you but I am a fully qualified accountant and worked for a large American company exposing weak subsidiaries by their balance sheets so can spot one a mile off.. in my experience if something looks like an elephant, has a huge trunk and charges whilst grunting then it probably is an elephant...if it's also pink it will probably answer to the name Carillion...but you do your own research.

[wallywoo] 23/6/2017 12:00

lol, now there's an idea for the weekend!

[m4rtinu] 23/6/2017 11:50

Wally - thanks. I clearly have a lot to learn. A little knowledge ... etc.

I did think it was anatomically impossible (at least) to have a head and shoulders between a double bottom :)

[yump] 23/6/2017 11:31

Tut tut ;-)

Yes, its those good reasons that are often quite difficult to fathom.

I sold out too early on BOO, as I thought it would be a 'me-too' easy to replicate business model, unlike ASOS which was unique for quite a while.

Forgot to take into account that funds and large numbers of investors were looking for the next high growth big market retailer stock and there was (and still is?) only BOO in town. That's the only reason I can think of for the bonkers valuation - lots of money for that sector and only one place to go for growth.