Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[wallywoo] 15/6/2017 13:45

ok ok, we will revisit this in a few months. I have no position and comment on here because I sold (bgt before divi, sold after for 1% loss - because the share price action did not look right to me), for the reasons mentioned and experience hard learnt in the past. Was hoping to save you guys some money too. Time will tell, hope I am wrong.

[nomdeplume] 15/6/2017 13:38

wallywoo: I think you have overstated your case: every analyst on the Barclays Stockbrokers' website has a target price above the current share price. For example, JP Morgan Cazenove recently upgraded their advice to overweight with a target price of 292.00p.

"take the risk that ... 24% short shares are wrong" As far as I can see there is little evidence that they are right. A 24% short is big, it may well be that the 'shorters' have shot their bolt, missed, and have no more bolts in their locker.

[pogue] 15/6/2017 13:02

I have lost nothing as I have not sold :0)
PFC I bought as it looked like a good company at a bargain price I will not be selling until it stops looking like one.
Different strokes I am lazy I invest over a different time frame from you
Good luck with your system I will stick with mine hope you have the same good results I do.

[mister md] 15/6/2017 13:00

well, look at CPI the other day when they mentioned trading was inline with their own expectations ... close to 20% jump in shareprice. Obviously you need a sensible weighting in your portfolio and not bet the house on it ...

[wallywoo] 15/6/2017 12:35

Yes pogue, that is exactly my point. At this stage you are only guessing where the bottom is. So the offset / risk is to:

1) Buy now and take the risk that this is the bottom and 24% short shares are wrong.

2) Wait until the shorts close out and the share price is not rock bottom say 5-10% higher and take a lot less risk.

You think this cannot go down substantially but there are currently a lot of professional / institutional investors who think it will. This is the most shorted share on the market by a long way, are you really thinking they all have to be wrong? An awful lot of investors have lost their shirt doing the same.

[pogue] 15/6/2017 11:40

wallywoo
if you can pick a bottom you are better man than me I just pick companies that make money. I did buy Petrofac the other day for 375 though I must admit only 25p or so off the bottom it has gone vertical today to 440 I would have missed that increase if I was waiting for a bottom.

[jaf1948] 15/6/2017 10:36

Fair enough !

[rcturner2] 15/6/2017 10:27

I am interested to know what GC thinks. He and I have very similar investment styles and we often own the same shares. I have a lot of respect for his views.

[jaf1948] 15/6/2017 10:17

RCT,

Give it a break ! You keep going back to those same two points and we end up have the same discussion.

[rcturner2] 15/6/2017 10:10

GC, what's your view of the debt and pension deficit here, both of which are larger than the equity?

[garycook] 15/6/2017 09:54

Wally,Average of 195p will do for me matey.

[kcsham] 15/6/2017 09:21

Yes, don't be a sucker, follow the books!K C

[wallywoo] 15/6/2017 09:00

pogue: Yes if you buy now you get the chance of getting a future divi (though I note that by far the largest part of that is at end year and that goes ex d, IF they pay it, in May 2018).

BUT;

Every stock market book ever written will tell you not to buy a share until the down trend shows signs of turning back up. There is plenty of time to buy once these signs start appearing. Why take the risk, it is a suckers game until those signs appear.

[garycook] 14/6/2017 23:53

pogue,Like it.Good post.

[pogue] 14/6/2017 17:24

wallywoo
The reason to buy this now is for the dividend then wait for the rise if you wait till it starts rising you will probably miss the large surge at the beginning and not bank dividends. The only reason not to buy is if you think the shorters are right.

[rcturner2] 14/6/2017 13:19

lol unreal ignorance

if they company goes bust, the shorters have won the lottery

[nomdeplume] 14/6/2017 13:13

I notice that the 'shorters' never suggest that the company will go bust, just the the share price will go down.

Just imagine what will happen to the share price when the 24% short is closed. I'm happy to wait.

[kcsham] 14/6/2017 11:34

Another clever fellow suggests to pick the bottom. Be careful, often it makes your fingers dirty and smelly. Of course I am only joking, everybody has the rights to choose their options.K C

[wallywoo] 14/6/2017 09:37

Meanwhile the short % is still increasing. Think this thread should be called the delusional thread!



Many of you think that CLLN is just a waiting game for the share price to rise massively. Meanwhile the shorters keep adding bets that it will fall! Why take the risk. Wait until they start closing out at least.

[kcsham] 14/6/2017 09:24

14 Jun 2017 - You are absolutely correct. I am confident that Carillion just needs to continue it normal operation, its share price will rise eventually. Any better than normal news will be a bonus. It is a waiting game, I cannot see the shorters would maintain their position forever. K C

[nomdeplume] 14/6/2017 08:55

It may not be necessary to have some exceptional piece of news. For example, Capita Group rose 16% yesterday on the basis of an 'in-line' trading statement.

[kcsham] 13/6/2017 19:36

pjt105 - "Qatar problems ended; or debts paid off; pension deficit sorted; a really good contract."I wish all you mentioned above will come true tomorrow and the share price of Carillion will not rise to 497 until I/we have completed our new purchase of this share.Let us all pray and wish!K C

[pjt105] 13/6/2017 17:44

The recent big share price falls were due to going XD in May and the Qatar problems this month. The rest of the time there has been slight increase, but not enough to make up the 2 big drops in share price It just needs a positive RNS such as: Qatar problems ended; or debts paid off; pension deficit sorted; a really good contract. Perhaps it will be this years trading statement as Nondeplume says above!

[edmundshaw] 13/6/2017 17:19

Not me regurgitating, I never swallowed them in the first place! Just saying the possibilities, which are the same as they have been for years (apart from imminent bad news, which obviously hasn't been the case). I think the price is too low and I hold, but I have no illusions about why the share is where it is.

At £3 there was not a lot of growth expected, and the price was never likely to go up a lot, so in the end it went down (though £3 was not necessarily an unfair price). Now we are in the reverse situation. A lot of bad news in the price, and if it doesn't happen, the likely way is up - with a nice dividend while waiting.