Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[nomdeplume] 20/6/2017 21:51

Shawzie : I think the reference at the AGM to challenging contracts was fairly general referring to some contracts, such as the Leeds Tower, which run into delays. However, some of the Middle East contracts have slim profit margins.

[shawzie] 20/6/2017 20:05

nomdeplume
Do you know what the "challenging contracts" are and how badly could they affect Carillion if they go astray?

[jaf1948] 20/6/2017 19:55

KC,

Thank you but it's bad enough being 70 next year - being 170 would be a challenge.

[kcsham] 20/6/2017 18:36

https://youtu.be/Nf_Y4MbUCLY

[kcsham] 20/6/2017 18:29

JAF1948 - Sorry I mistype the 1948 in the previous post. I am not very generous about giving out a thumbs up. You got mine this time.

[kcsham] 20/6/2017 18:25

JAF1848 - I have just come back home and read your post. Great! It really makes me laugh. Good fun!K C

[jaf1948] 20/6/2017 14:20

One of the many things ? You sound a bit like the Monty Python Spanish Inquisition:

'Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our *three* weapons are fear, and surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.... Our *four*...no... *Amongst* our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise....'

[rcturner2] 20/6/2017 14:08

momentum is just one of many things that I look at, usually one of the last things, I use the 200 MA as a good measure of momentum

[edmundshaw] 20/6/2017 13:41

It's reliable until it is not. Buy at the wrong time before a turn and you stand to lose quite a bundle.

[rcturner2] 20/6/2017 13:37

if you want to know how a share will perform, momentum gives you a very good guide, it does not tell you 100% the outcome

the important point is that momentum is not meaningless and it is also ONE OF THE MOST RELIABLE indicators

[haywards26] 20/6/2017 13:32

The relevance of the daily share price is only really of relevance to short term investors. Long term investors, should switch the daily share price data off, focus on the company news and await value. Patience...

Mentally all investors fear a falling share price when holding, and conversely feel joy with a rising share price.

In reality a share price is what Mr Market will let you buy or sell shares at any given time. It is not the real value of the company.

[nomdeplume] 20/6/2017 13:19

RC : If you were correct, the only conclusion would be a falling share price - FOR EVER.

That is clearly not going to happen.

[rcturner2] 20/6/2017 13:13

I believe that the chart tells you a lot and yes academic studies have shown that momentum is one of the biggest predictors of future price movements. Carillion is a good example of that.

[edmundshaw] 20/6/2017 13:11

So you believe in momentum investing. Fine. We get it. Some people like growth, some like value, some just want chart signals. Got it. Great. Thanks.

[jaf1948] 20/6/2017 12:57

Normally, yes.

But what has that got to do with anything. We know why the share price has fallen over a three year period - have there been profit warnings ? No; have there been Board upheavals ? No; has there been over 20% shorting of the shares ? Yes.

I follow Occam's Razor - the simplest solution is usually the correct one.

[rcturner2] 20/6/2017 12:52

JAF, if a company's share price was rising nicely over a 3 year period, you would naturally assume that the company is going well yes?

[jaf1948] 20/6/2017 12:30

It is quite amusing being told to look at the share price action and the presence of shorters as proof that there might be something wrong with CLLN.

When the shorters moved in in 2015, I could accept that something bad was imminent. But they got it wrong for the whole of 2015 and then for the whole of 2016 and so far half of 2017. But the large shorting (aided by some willing cheerleaders) has relentlessly driven the share price down.

Today's share price is a result of shorting not failures in CLLN - that is not to say that everything will turn out well, but it does prove how little the shorters actually knew about the company early in 2015, namely a little less than the average shareholder. The company may succeed or not, but today's share price and its fall over the past two years tells you nothing about the future.

[wallywoo] 20/6/2017 11:53

kc: I was not trying to help you, you are obviously beyond it and completely convinced you are right. I was trying to give people who read your ramping posts, a common sense balance.

This was IRV's trading update 1 month before they announce a large exceptional right off for their energy from waste business which sent the share price tanking. Looks pretty similar to the CLLN one to me:

1(th) January 2017

TRADING UPDATE

Interserve, the international support services and construction group, today provides an update on trading for the year ended 31(st) December 2016 prior to announcing its Preliminary Results for the year ended 31(st) December 2016 on 28(th) February 2017.

Overall Group trading has remained in line with previous guidance and expectations for full-year headline results are unchanged.

Within this overall performance, we are anticipating that strong international construction and equipment services results will broadly offset a disappointing performance in UK construction.

The net debt position of the group as at 31(st) December 2016 is expected to be better than previously guided, at GBP270-280m, driven by strong collections and other working capital management measures, which have more than offset an increased level of cash outflows from the exited Energy from Waste business.

[kcsham] 20/6/2017 11:53

nomdeplume - Thanks for your information. I used to take any information for its face value only and then use my personal judgment and interpretation to make my investment decision. I believe the CEO does know what the position is but whether he is 100% telling us everything, that is another matter. However, if he is lying the system will take care of it.As a layman investor I did say before: "If anybody believes "figures might have been massaged (ie. reported profit, receivables and payables)" , he/she should forget about Carillion shares or better forget about buying any shares. There is a jungle out there."K C

[rcturner2] 20/6/2017 11:36

ps the chance of Carillion going bust is minuscule, but it is not zero

[rcturner2] 20/6/2017 11:36

nom, how does any business go bust? The CEO thinks everything is saveable until the moment the company goes bust. Go back and read the statements from Rok, for example and see if you can find a single person who said Rok would go bust based on the CEO statements.

[kcsham] 20/6/2017 11:30

wallywoo - "......I cannot tell you how many times I have seen investors stating how cheap a share is and that it cannot possibly go any cheaper, then it does............Let the share price action tell you: and at the moment it says NO."I don't really understand why you keep on trying to tell me or everybody else what to do or how to invest our money? Are you a qualified advice or just try to be Captain America?If the share price action could tell you what to do, fine! Did I ask you for help?K C

[nomdeplume] 20/6/2017 11:02

KC, Wally: I accept that as a private investor, I may be unaware of the full situation but presumably the CEO should know. Consider the following:

Date: 12:25 pm, 3 May 2017 / Michele Maatouk

LONDON (Sharecast) - (ShareCast News) - Support services company Carillion said on Wednesday that trading conditions have remained largely stable since its full-year 2016 results in March and it has made a promising start to the year.

Chief executive Richard Howson said at the annual general meeting that the group continues to focus on the priorities it set out when it announced its 2016 results. These include the rebalancing of its business into markets and sectors where it can achieve its objectives for margins and cash flows and to manage challenging contract positions, particularly in its international markets.

"We have made an encouraging start to the year in terms of winning new business in our chosen markets, with new orders and probable orders worth approximately £1.3bn, which has increased revenue visibility) for 2017 to over 85%."

.................

Either the CEO does not know what the position is or he is lying. Which do you think it is?