Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[multibagger] 30/12/2019 19:17

Stevieb2190 thanks for your input.

Given everything you have said, what is your prediction for the revenue shortfall or growth ?

[1novice] 30/12/2019 19:09

Give it up steve. Talking sense to the terminally stupid is somewhat pointless.
Bottom line.
Floated at 220 now 147 a share. Despite doubling their store portfolio like for like stagnant.
But let them do what they do and you can sit back and laugh when you are proved right.

[ukneonboy] 30/12/2019 18:51

BORINGSTEVE as stated earlier - you spout cr@p

suggest you wait for the release of the Xmas trading statement

if the update is bad - then you will have been proved right

but for now - wait, keep quiet and dont spout more unproven and unsubstantiated cr@p

[stevieb2190] 30/12/2019 16:36

O.k ukneonboy...all is fantastic at card factory..sales are up..footfall up..profits up..share price oops....staff costs set to fall..brexit done..wonderful pile in

[stevieb2190] 30/12/2019 16:33

My opinion is not based on rumour..i havnt seen any rumour..obv touched a nerve with someone lol..let me give you one FACT ...I have a very good friend who manages a store and yes they are busy but not as busy as last year and by the sound of head office edicts they are pushing their staff relentlessly to improve customer through put..also..take a look at their helium balloon choice, licensed product disappearing and have stopped selling air walkers..airwalkers sell at £20 each..also read BETWEEN the lines on recent reports..

[ukneonboy] 30/12/2019 14:34

BORINGSTEVE

all you ever do is repeatedly post NEGATIVITY about C/Factory

always pretty much along the lines of, "I'm expecting bad things" - most of which is merely rumour and conjecture without any solid foundations

When the Xmas trading statement is released, the truth will out, but repeatedly bad mouthing a reputable and well run company is stupid

and yes, the share price is down today on very little trading volume.....so what

[fizzypop] 30/12/2019 13:49

Seems to have bottomed so topped up at 149p. Maidstone store trading its socks off throughout December. Forward yield 9.5% but it's the capital gain I'm looking for.

[fenners66] 30/12/2019 13:13

Just went back and read the latest trading statement - the year to date LFL were positive - but drill deeper and these were declining in the 3rd qtr meaning they were going backward.

It highlights more cost to come from living wage increases

So maybe wait and see what the 9th brings .

The problem with that is that if trading is well received then the "bargain(?)" may be missed.

[fenners66] 30/12/2019 13:02

Nothing wrong with testing the "longs" with an alternative opinion. Well reasoned debate gives impetus to unearth real information.

Market has marked down today - but I guess market volumes are light.

My guess is there will be a price at which there is value here - the future prospect of Aldi and Aus gives some hope.

[stevieb2190] 30/12/2019 12:35

I am about to jump on as price reaching my buy price but still feel a bit uneasy as i honestly believe xmas results will disappoint the city

[stevieb2190] 30/12/2019 12:09

Have you seen the share price today..you seem to be panicking hence your rude reaction...my last comments were actually positive..but my opinion...its just an opinion that im entitled too is xmas will be down

[ukneonboy] 30/12/2019 10:45

BoringSteve - TBH what you think is 100% irrelevant.

The financial markets rely on facts and when the C/F Xmas trading results are officially released and made public, at that point rumour and conjecture become irrelevant.

Based on my own personal observations pre Xmas and now post Xmas, the C/F tills were and are ringing up sales. Customers are going into C/F shops and buying NOT JUST LOOKING

So, BoringSteve, your attempts to destabilise the CF share price by spouting cr@p is meaningless and most of us on here know why you are doing it !!!

I'm calling you BORINGSTEVE for the simple reason - you spout the same old cr@p, time after time, after time and its BORING - BORING - BORING.

[stevieb2190] 30/12/2019 08:42

I think like for like sales will drop due to the fact that these figures over the last couple of years have been masked by new lines..non card..added to stock..their stores are always packed in dec but have to be with high rental units and staffing..the staffing costs are set to raise significantly in 2020..
However on the plus side they have been adding covertly dearer cards but keeping their core offer...they now stock blue mountain cards which retail at 2.49 although the margins are less on these lines..increasing prices is the thing to do now and if the shares drop to the 140- 150 range then jump in...

[wiseman1967] 29/12/2019 12:17

Hi Multibagger. The current senior management team joined after both the management buyout and IPO and so don't have PE style (or size) stakes in the company. Instead they are awarded LTIPs which are complex and restricted so not very easy to fathom (they are set out in the Directors Remuneration Report in the Annual Report).The historical ones may not have much value in them given the recent short term EPS performance but this should change after the Jan 2020 year end (providing trading has been good). I have no idea whether the Hoyles have a current stake in CF, though given the current EV/ebitda multiple of c.7.5x, I would be surprised if they haven't considered it.

[multibagger] 29/12/2019 11:25

Thanks Wiseman1967 for your input.

Though I am not thinking of BH acquiring (as I imagine Warren would say, "it won't move the needle") - the CF business model and moat is hugely important. Nothing to stop a "Buffetology fund" to pick up some when CF is attractively priced. Keith Ashworth-Lord's Buffetology Fund is an example.

I expect with Brexit uncertainty abating in the near term, we could see market valuations rise in most UK businesses. As you say a strong(er) pound will also help with cost of paper etc.

What stake do the current senior management hold ? And your take on their LTIPs please. In your estimation, do you think that the Hoyles still hold some CF?

[wiseman1967] 28/12/2019 18:54

Hi Multibagger - I think that CF would tick most of the required Berkshire Hathaway criteria but it falls short on size. Its market cap is only about USD 850million, not sure how small they will go. I agree that today it is primarily an income stock driven by strong cash flow but if the GBP strength continues and management are able to feed through some price increases I would expect the share price to recover strongly.

[multibagger] 28/12/2019 18:01

Hi Wiseman1967 ! You are probably right with your in depth knowledge of the business !

But intuitively I feel that we will be very pleasantly surprised re CF figures this quarter. As I tend to forget with time my gut feeling about a stock, I post my observations/predictions to remind me where I was right or wrong.

I don't hold CF currently so have not been following the story too closely. I see it more of a dividend income stock rather than a capital growth stock at this price. It is an understated solid performer which is on my radar which has had the misfortune of being battered by the MB and fund selling debacle.

Do you think it has the fundamentals of a Berkshire Hathaway holding ?

[wiseman1967] 28/12/2019 17:37

Multi bagger - I hope you are right but +10-15% LFL feels too much of a stretch to me. I would expect +1 to +3% unless management has started to feed through price increases through the mix of cards on offer. With new stores and new Aldi outlets that may lead to total sales growth in the mid-high single digits.

[scobak] 28/12/2019 17:23

CF shops in Hull and East Yorkshire appear to be busy still. Doing a roaring trade with the post Christmas clearance sale. I know this may be cannibalizing some of nest years sales but the limited amount of stock is much sought after.

[multibagger] 28/12/2019 17:06

Anecdotally, I think that this Christmas trading period will be a surprisingly good one given the packed CF shops that I have seen on more than one occasion! A rare sight indeed on the high street.

I would expect like for like Quarter comparison to be circa +10% to +15% revenue at least.

What's your estimate stevieb2190 of like for like quarter shortfall ?

Any other guesses from others on the BB ?

[stevieb2190] 28/12/2019 13:00

O.k truthfully ...i think card factory will have had a disappointing xmas...but when the shares settle it will be a good buy as there is more than enough room to increase prices..they have all but wiped out the independent sector..clintons have enough problems on their plate...me ...i would look at expanding into north america..big card buying public...

[wiseman1967] 27/12/2019 21:13

StevieB - I believe the reason for the share price slump is that Mark Barnett, a big believer in CF, who bought about 28% of the company in 2014-15 for Invesco has had to split his job with another fund manager. Following this, Invesco sold down their holding to 21.9% by 16 Dec (and possibly lower now). This has forced down the share price, and probably caused the demotion of company from the FTSE 250. Once it was out, certain tracker funds would also have to sell shares - forcing down the price further. If trading over Xmas has been good then trackers will have to buy in again once CF's market cap crosses the FTSE 250 threshold again. I suspect the share price may be bumpy over the next few days/weeks but believe that a combination of stronger GBP and new sales from Aldi & Australia will boost trading in the next few months.

[ukneonboy] 27/12/2019 20:44

Yo, BORINGSTEVE, wind-your neck in mate, until after the Xmas figures are released. Spouting bullsh*t is really uncool

[stevieb2190] 27/12/2019 20:11

Performing so well...peek time of year..tills ringing..do you think somebody knows something
..excited about xmas trading figures...i think not

[stevieb2190] 27/12/2019 16:46

Card factory print their own..failure of management in reckless pursuit of opening more stores...im sorry if certain people think im boring but lets see whos right when xmas trading results are out..my prediction...very poor.