Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[woodhawk] 12/1/2018 21:21

There seem to be a lot of these type of ridiculously extreme over reactions to what is perceived as "bad news" but is often relatively insubstantial. Tough if you're caught on the wrong side of one - but excellent trading opportunities for those fleet of foot who can catch the bottom. I've made good money in recent months on IGG, PFC, BAB and hopefully now GSK, MCRO (both already in recovery) and CARD.

[1224saj] 12/1/2018 19:39

I agree, when Clinton's go bust, that will be my sell signal, topped up today at 2.15

[eastbourne1982] 12/1/2018 18:12

Bought some today at £2.16, will buy more if they go much lower, looks like a no brainer to me, my target within one year is £3, add the likely dividends on that could be a 50% return.

Yield here is likely to be well over 10% at the current price, rare to find that in a relatively low risk purchase.

[dealer1972] 12/1/2018 17:39

I like all the 1, 2 and 3 unit share trades! Hmmmmm

[eeza] 12/1/2018 16:33

Finished on the day's low.

[tsmith2] 12/1/2018 16:32

Strange up and down

[luderitz] 12/1/2018 14:16

Talk about a market over reacting!

[woodhawk] 12/1/2018 13:48

Indeed Gary, should be a decent bounce from here!

[garycook] 12/1/2018 13:09

Woody,Should do well with CARD.Look at last years graph it bottomed at 232p.This is well oversold now.

[minerve] 12/1/2018 13:06

Welcome aboard Woodhawk!

[woodhawk] 12/1/2018 12:52

Decided to join you at 216p. Thx for the tip, GaryCook.

[hardupfedup] 12/1/2018 12:11

eb1982 --- anything poss @ these levels

[eastbourne1982] 12/1/2018 12:11

Yes I agree, there is scope to raise prices, even a 5% rise only adds 6p onto a £1.20 card, negligible for most buyers.

CARD is a dominant player in this game and I expect that to continue.

[riverman77] 12/1/2018 12:00

Having been into one of their shops recently, I can testify that the cards are incredibly cheap - way cheaper than anything else I've seen and reasonable quality - so surely must be scope to increase prices. High margins suggests this is not an overly competitive sector so I'm sure they could sneak through a 10% rise with affecting sales. Perhaps they are deliberately keeping prices low to put rivals out of business and have the market to themselves.

[eastbourne1982] 12/1/2018 11:30

At £2.17 this must now be considered as a takeover target.

Someone like Walmart would fit the bill imho.

[staylow2] 12/1/2018 10:37

Hi Yump, No data here. I'd like to see your AI data. Sounds interesting. Also, no argument was just my opinion.

[yump] 12/1/2018 09:42

staylow2

So presumably you've got the data somewhere to show that card-buying is very price-sensitive and that people will increasingly shop online to pay 60p for a card that costs 99p at Card Factory.

Sort out which argument you want to use for goodness sake.

As I said, you need to understand market segmentation. By your arguments, especially the Amazon comment, nobody would start any business and be successful. But they do and they are.

[minerve] 12/1/2018 09:32

Look, even IF it is a declining market, margins and its vertical integration should allow the company to be a good income stock which is what we are all here for. In other words the decline (if there is one) can be managed.

The concern should be focused on whether the business will continue its path of selling more non-card product vs cards; the costs here are more heavily $ based and that will lead to continual erosion of margin.

What is amusing is general consensus amongst the City is for a reversion to mean for Cable but oddly (ho ho) that doesn't seem to be the consensus on this stock.

People are also forgetting that this company does have internet presence and so, even though this side of the business is nascent, it isn't exclusively just high street.

[tsmith2] 12/1/2018 09:27

UBS: There is no evidence yet of a wider market slowdown, while the lower margin non-card products are performing well. With the largest competitor, Clinton's, reducing store numbers and appointing a property agent to undertake a review of its estate we think there may be scope to see LFL accelerate even against a lower consumer disposable income environment.

[tsmith2] 12/1/2018 09:25

UBS in other have 290p base case, 400p upside case and 210p downside caseSo opportune to buy at these levels

[tsmith2] 12/1/2018 09:23

they also cutting dividend expectations and valuing it at 6% yield..

[tsmith2] 12/1/2018 09:21

From same note:We don't want to be too histrionic but the basis of all our enthusiasm has been the stability of the wider market. And for the first time, this is being brought into question. We can understand the Stock Market's seemingly brutal response to the update.I think they are being exactly that

[hardupfedup] 12/1/2018 09:17

gotta laugh
peel hunt 05/01 target 400
peel hunt 11/01 (thats a week later) target err 240 lol

[staylow2] 11/1/2018 16:01

Yump,amazon and Moonpig is enough reason not to get into this. AI is not going to get people thinging about getting out of the house to go shopping. And if AI has displaced their jobs they are not going to go pay top draw price for a card they can buy online for half the price.