Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 17/1/2018 13:03

Where's the bull case then ? The divi obviously is, but why would the share price rise ?

[woodhawk] 17/1/2018 12:57

Ah, I see the scavangers are out in force today. Just as subtle as usual.

About to bounce, imo, ridiculously oversold.

[yump] 17/1/2018 12:52

Just to clarify my point above about gettingpersonal.co.uk. Many of the large gift sites have been running affiliate schemes for years, which generate substantial volume. If you're an affiliate, you'll know the conversion rates for those (some are very good) and you will never place a new gift merchant on your site, if you've already got a good selection, because there's a risk that some of your clicks will go to the new merchant and not convert. No need for risk, when you've got secure revenue.

I work in different markets, but its the same. No new merchants, if the ones I've got on sites convert well enough already. Not unless they are really unique.

Obviously if a new merchant wants to take away some of the risk by paying a fixed increased commission that's fine, but 99% of them want you to just promote them on the same terms as the existing ones, as if its not a competitive marketplace - simply not going to happen.

(Take note merchants if you're reading and wondering why your amazing new affiliate program isn't working).

[fenners66] 17/1/2018 12:48

spoole - what specials? that was last year.

[yump] 17/1/2018 12:43

I'm sitting on the fence here wondering whether to buy some for the dividend, which, even if they stop the specials, is still very good and looks safe.

I don't think any retail business that is not growing profits will command a p/e over 10, so not holding out for any substantial share price gains.

The gifting market is very crowded and competitive. I think they should ditch gettingpersonal.co.uk and just cross-sell those gifts on the cardfactory website.

If you just put any sort of gift search into Google you'll see substantial businesses that have been going for years appearing. Getting separate new visitors to gettingpersonal.co.uk means competing with those - imo that's an expensive non-starter.

[al h] 17/1/2018 12:23

Almost all algorithmic trades:

[spoole5] 17/1/2018 12:05

Maybe they should buy back stock instead of specials.

[woodhawk] 17/1/2018 09:07

Director and wife been topping up too, I see.

[eeza] 17/1/2018 09:06

Topped up at 209.74.

Hope that's the bottom.

[tsmith2] 17/1/2018 09:01

Agree. Price action is just silly

[woodhawk] 17/1/2018 08:54

Picked up some more at 211p.

[al h] 17/1/2018 08:50

What a farcical, sad game of algorithmic bot trading the stock market has become. Bots chasing notional trade price points with little relationship to any real actual supply and demand.

[makinbuks] 16/1/2018 17:29

Back in at £2.17. Previously bought in October 2014 at £2.19 and sold at £3.39 and £2.77. Hoping I've got the timing right again

[woodhawk] 16/1/2018 16:32

Increased my holding at 214/215p.

[tsmith2] 16/1/2018 14:45

good director buying

[scobak] 16/1/2018 13:49

2 things- The top 10 shareholders own 68% of the shares between them, meaning only 32% is owned by everyone else. This tells a story on its own.
Also Eastbourne has a very interesting and important point to make in his last paragraph ie that this business has the scale, model and ability to cause serious damage to its opposition/competition.

It was pointed out to me over a year ago that CARD is in many ways like the tobacco firms being a cash machine, needing to spend little in the way of replacing fixed assets etc. Shops are rented or leased = lower costs.

This is a temporary setback and imho an over reaction.

[eastbourne1982] 16/1/2018 12:44

Yes, Card already makes a load of cash however it's product is very cheap relative to most of it's competition, that's a pretty good place to be.

Look at the price of cards on Ebay, anything half decent on their is £2 to £4 when you include delivery, you can buy similar in a Card Factory shop for £1 to £1.50, there aren't many retailers out there with prices far cheaper than Ebay etc.

Perhaps management is the issue here as this business really does have the potential to kill most of the competition off.

[hammers976] 16/1/2018 12:36

Their website is quite an interesting prospect. I just did a comparison between their prices and those of moonpig. card factory are so much cheaper for what is pretty much the same product. 30% revenue growth from the site last year too. Not my reason for investing but has some option value.

[leo1956] 16/1/2018 08:40

Card factory also have a online websites selling cards and other stuff.?

[woodhawk] 15/1/2018 07:08

My thoughts exactly, Gary. Same scavangers show up at every beaten down share then scuttle back under their stones immediately the price rises.

[garycook] 15/1/2018 02:01

It must be time to buy.When all the Idiots show up spouting their drivel.Look what happened on the PFC thread.Now all the Idiot shorters have gone with the share price at 542p,from 348p.Even frugal Montyhedge,but Millions of cards sold by CARD last year Monty.Not everyone is tight fisted like you, so definitely a strong buy now.Always do the opposite when Montyhedge posts.He predicted VOD to the 160,s LOL

[yump] 14/1/2018 23:44

I think the profit warning adage could be one of those alternative facts, that's been around for longer than alternative facts.

You can bet that every time it comes true, someone will point it out, but every time it doesn't, nobody will record it.

Bad science nonsense awaiting an actual study to prove one way or another.

I would take 'usually' as meaning > 80%, not a Brexit margin.