Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[dixies] 07/6/2016 08:04

Peel Hunt have increased their target price to 190 from 165.

[michaelfenton] 07/6/2016 07:54

hvs. The writedowns were expected as the company concentrates on it's profitable core businesses. This is a great improvement on last year.

[rivaldo] 07/6/2016 07:21

Results are out - and ahead of expectations. The 10.1p adjusted EPS is well ahead of the consensus 9.42p:



The outlook is extremely positive. In particular:

- Wipac is making a big expansion into medium volume models which is likely to further transform profits from this division
- CTP is expanding globally in India, USA, China, Europe.....all on the back of agreed customer sales programmes and requirements
- and aerospace continues to perform well

With CDS gone as already announced, CAR can now focus on the tremendous potential of its core businesses.

The 11.5p EPS forecasts for this year may or may not be increased at this stage, but imo CAR deserves a considerably higher rating than the current one.

[longshanks] 07/6/2016 07:19

Nice strong set of results

[rivaldo] 27/5/2016 13:25

Looking nice and solid before the results on 7th June - hopefully new recent highs to come.

I'll create a new thread in the next few days.

[rivaldo] 26/5/2016 07:13

CAR's VR315 partner VEC are positive this morning in their results:



"Partnered pipeline programmes

VR315 US (fluticasone propionate/salmeterol), our partnered programme with Hikma for a generic version of Advair® Diskus® for the treatment of asthma and COPD. Vectura received cash milestones of $5m triggered by the successful achievement of important development milestones. In January we confirmed that our partner on this programme (and VR506) was Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC ("Hikma").

Post-period event related to VR315 US

In April 2016, the ANDA was accepted for filing by US FDA and Vectura recognised a milestone payment of $10m. The FDA has provided Hikma with a GDUFA goal date of 10 May 2017. Vectura will receive an $11m payment on approval of the file plus royalties from all sales of VR315 in the US upon successful launch of this product."

[yump] 23/5/2016 16:44

Yes, what we really don't need is well-run, established floated UK companies using market funds to try new stuff that might put us at the forefront of something.

Unless it works of course.

[beeezzz] 17/5/2016 11:20

Not to puncture one of Car's remaining businesses, noticed this article in LED mag..

[queeny2] 17/5/2016 11:09

I missed all the excitement.

Clearly correct to exit and write off, CDS had gone nowhere for years now.

Let's hope the management, and O'Malley was very complicit, have learned their lessons regarding new businesses outside their competence and resources. They seem to have. FOCUS!!! :)

[michaelfenton] 17/5/2016 10:31

Yes thanks rivaaldo you are one of the good ones.

[9degrees] 17/5/2016 09:50

thanks rivaldo for all you do and say it is much appreciated

[rivaldo] 17/5/2016 09:11

Finncap retain their Buy and 170p target:



And Peel Hunt retain their Buy and 165p target:



9degrees, good point. I'll try to set up a new, more relevant thread in the next few days if I get a chance.

[9degrees] 16/5/2016 21:37

any chance of someone updating the narrative at the top of this thread?? it still refers to atmel and CDS . Lets start again with new updated info

[dontay] 16/5/2016 17:01

Well said illiswilgig... absolutely correct... it's no surprise whatsoever and it clears the decks for what promises to be a superlative set of results and a very strong future growth story.

[ansc] 16/5/2016 13:53

Typical MM over-reaction this morning, they sensed it was another piece of bad news so out with their red pens in an attempt to panic a few CAR 'rabbits'. Disappointingly, it looks as 'tho they caught one or two in their 'headlights'.

Roll on the June results announcement, at least the co-called bad news is already revealed.

[illiswilgig] 16/5/2016 13:52

Well I'm going to be controversial and say that in my opinion the current management has handled this (CDS) situation very well.

The announcement whilst perhaps disappointing is not really a surprise in view of previous updates. They avoided pulling the plug at the same time as CIT when further writedowns would have only increased the talk of rights issues. They have also avoided tarnishing this years good results with the CDS exit by bringing the announcement forward now when the full potential of CTP and Wipac is becoming clear.

If Wipace and CTP investment plans are fully funded then this move will immediately enhance future profitability. If Wipac and CTP can utilise futher investment funding then the payback will be sooner and less risky than CDS so it's a win either way around?

cheers

[michaelfenton] 16/5/2016 12:50

rivaldo - as usual you are spot on. I have added today on the dip.If the results are as expected then this is cheap.

[rivaldo] 16/5/2016 12:27

CAR have already announced that the results for the year to 31/3 will be in line with expectations, so we know that broker forecasts will be spot on when the RNS comes on 7th June.

Which means that at 148p CAR are trading on a current year P/E of only 12.9.

CAR's PEG is only 0.61 - this represents excellent value according to Salter's model.

There hasn't been anything at all in the share price for CDS, and hasn't been for ages. Which is why the share price has barely moved today, and why volumes are absolutely tiny.

The core businesses have been managed and grown tremendously well, and the excursions into riskier start-up areas have now been fully excised.

Today's news may well serve to focus the market's attention fully on CAR's core attractions.

[pugugly] 16/5/2016 10:19

rivaldo: Agreed - IF brokers forecasts can be believed !! Bitter experience shows they usually are too optimistic - in some cases possibly negligently so or manipulted higher for corporate reasons - No implication that this is the situation here but just a general impression having lost too many fingers in the past. Now treat with a VERY VERY large grain of salt.

Initial market reaction suggests that too much HOPE value may have been built into for CDS and Mr Market downgrading accordingly towards a historic p/e appropriate for the sector.

[rivaldo] 16/5/2016 07:55

The two core businesses have been trading extremely impressively for some years now, and CDS was the only remaining possible "banana skin" post-CIT.

Underlying EPS shows a terrific progression - 125% growth in 4 years:

to Mar'18 - 13.7p (forecast)
to Mar'17 - 11.5p (forecast)
to Mar'16 - 9.5p (forecast)
to Mar'15 - 7.9p
to Mar'14 - 6.1p

At 156p (or less this morning) the current year P/E of 13.6 is pretty good value imho for a business showing such growth.

[pugugly] 16/5/2016 07:47

However (imo) a serious reflection on past management decisions and implemention failures in new product developments.

I would suggest we need to look very closely at managment competence going forward.


OK they appear to have acted with resolution so far as CDS are concerned but (in my mind) has raised concerns about wether there are any more "banana skins" hidden in the closet !

Declaration - I used to hold and have been looking at possible re-entry but concerned as above.

[rivaldo] 16/5/2016 07:22

Bye-bye to CDS then!

CAR have acted decisively, and so we know the future is now clearly tied up with the exciting core businesses.

Since CDS was in the share price for free, there shouldn't (in theory anyway!) be much if any of a markdown. They can kitchen sink all the sunk costs in the historic results and leave a clean company going forward.

It's obviously a shame, but CAR had not raised any huge expectation for the outcome of CDS for some time now.

[rivaldo] 11/5/2016 15:05

They were two buy trades - one of 330,000 shares and another of 280,151 shares, both at 155p.

It's possible more trades to further clarify will be reported late, but certainly at present they both look like buys.

[9degrees] 11/5/2016 14:26

Or was this a 305k share sale/buy swap?