Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[queeny2] 09/11/2015 11:49

illis - hard to know how much of tooling and moulds and so on is front-loaded, or chargeable as incurred, plus staffing up for expected business. May not be important, may just be a hit to expectations. In all their other businesses they incur(red) and capitalise(d) cash costs, completely standard in say CIT, vulnerable in touch and CDS, LED closer to CIT in business model.

[tjbird] 09/11/2015 08:17

Bowl on chart

[nw99] 09/11/2015 07:34

PE 11.7 good value

[beeezzz] 03/11/2015 21:31

I notice BMW 7 series has laser headlights....

[illiswilgig] 03/11/2015 20:40

'I have never looked at LED's accounting practices, in terms of how they book upfront capex costs which would usually be capitalised and then amortised against revenue flows over time - I have no idea whether this matters here, but it could.'

Thats a good point and with mass production it would be critical. I think that CAR have never been too clear on this, but they seem to imply that each Supercar lighting contract is project based. ie they carry out contract based design and tooling as a part of the project and which may be chargeable to the customer.

To allow them to repeat the trick with multiple supercar customers CAR will need to control the generic technology whilst charging the specific design and tooling costs to each project.

Am I making sense? probably not......

cheers

[illiswilgig] 03/11/2015 20:25

A small anecdote on the subject of Wipac and LED's......

In my small world of ancient landrovers Wipac have long been the aftermarket supplier of choice for all lamps. They are all simple and cheap - you know the ones, they fitted them to the daleks as well :-). I normally buy a complete lamp with wiring bulbholder and lens for about 2.50 and with 8 per vehicle thats £20 a set (excluding the headlamps).

I was amused to see that one of my landrover part suppliers is now flogging Wipac LED replacement vehicle sets for around £90 each.

If the margins are the same, then that's a few times more profit per sale, but I have a strange feeling that at that price the margins will actually be higher. Good business to be in I think?

cheers

[beeezzz] 03/11/2015 17:11

If they shake the tree any more I may fall off....The BOD have really taken their eye off the ball here, we’re getting down to a couple of groups now, which may grow or not as the case maybe.

[queeny2] 03/11/2015 12:03

For the sake of completeness, whither CDS?

They got rid of PDL last year, and wrote everything off in that area.

In CDS:

'As at 31 March 2015 the total fair value of intangible assets relating to the group's investment in CDS was £3.5 million.' afaik this is all capitalised cash spend.

June 2015: 'Although there are still many technical and commercial challenges ahead, with a strong team in place, we expect to continue to make progress along the road to commercialisation.'

October 2015: 'We have now commissioned a healthcare practitioner review of the Micropoc platforms and intended applications as part of the Board's strategy to continually evaluate the strength of the opportunity given our continued investment in this area.'

From Edison: "CDS is still moving forwards and a healthcare practitioner review has been commissioned for the Micropoc platforms to ensure that they are still a viable proposition and to identify the best way to position and promote the products."


[Blast from past: June 2013 finals: "Continuing technical progress at Carclo Diagnostic Solutions ("CDS") across all of its micropoc platforms is expected to result in commercial partnerships over the next twelve months."]

[illiswilgig] 03/11/2015 10:52

Forecasts on Digital Look.


eps 9.53 YE 31-3-16
eps 11.58 YE 31-3-17

which is grow of 21% in each of the years. That's adjusted down from 31% in the current year as a result of the recent trading update.

Currently trading on a PE of 12.6 for the current year and 10.4 for FY17

Clearly the market does not believe these forecasts. Otherwise you won't find a company with growth continuing at 20% on a PE of 12.6 let alone 10.4 ?

Carclo have disappointed for the last few years - so is the market over pessimistic?

cheers

[dontay] 03/11/2015 10:34

Looks like the mm's are giving the tree a good shake prior to the interims.

[9degrees] 02/11/2015 21:52

More bad news from car industry I think- audi and Porsche involved

[queeny2] 02/11/2015 17:41

I would divide by a number empirically derived from your previous experience with touch firms seeking significant contracts from major tablet making OEMs.

Oh, what happened today? Just noticed.

[yump] 02/11/2015 17:17

9degrees

I would take Unipixel's excitement and divide by 2, as with most US firms.

[yump] 02/11/2015 17:14

Odd that no chartists turned up with the price hovering in no-mans land at 120p ish. Looks like optimists will get a chance at 100p, which would look like a pretty pessimistic view of the next couple of years.

[9degrees] 02/11/2015 16:45

Does this bode well for Carclo's future royalties ??
Santa Clara, California – November 2, 2015 - UniPixel, Inc. (NASDAQ: UNXL), a provider of Performance Engineered Films™ to the touchscreen and flexible electronics markets, announced today that it has received a pre-production order from a major PC OEM for a 10 inch tablet product. This order follows earlier engineering samples delivered for this application.
Mr. Brett Gaines, vice president of sales and marketing, commented, “We are pleased that the earlier engineering samples delivered to this Japanese PC and consumer electronics manufacturer have resulted in a follow-on pre-production purchase order. While this pre-production order does not guarantee that this sensor will eventually enter mass production with this customer, we are excited about moving this opportunity forward to the next step.”
UniPixel's XTouch sensors support features such as narrow borders, curved touch surfaces and even edgeless touchscreens while achieving improved linearity, reliability and thinner sensor stacks. As an alternative to traditional touch sensors, XTouch provides the ability to turn unique touch-based concepts into functional designs at lower total system costs.
About

[yump] 30/10/2015 14:43

queeny2

That is a fair point. Every thread with a cheerleader needs some antimatter, but usually its a load of one-liners or misinformation, which I don't recall you indulging in, so my comment was a bit out of order.

You'll know when you hit the really dodgy ramping cheerleaders - they just ban you. Then the share plummet is just a matter of time.

Oddly this is an exceptional thread - I think its the first where the cheerleader spent ages on loads of posts and then turned bearish.

[queeny2] 30/10/2015 14:36

Thanks Rivaldo, I see they name it as the Phaeton, which is very much VW not any of their prestige brands. If true, but they seem very clear on that.

Some neat detail in there about LED business.


(They have PBT rising from y/e 3/16 to y/e 3/17 by £1.8m, but have LED only contributing £0.3m gain - so they must think CTP is having a stormer next year I guess.)

[rivaldo] 30/10/2015 10:43

Useful new note from Edison, who have new forecasts basically in line with other analysts and state that the share price has overreacted.

They note that CAR should be trading at 175p on a sector basis, though some discount is justified until CAR continue to produce solid growth.

The new forecasts are:

this year : 9.5p EPS, 3p dividend
next year : 11.5p EPS, 3.3p dividend

[dontay] 23/10/2015 00:23

queeny2.... "If it was Bentley, would they say Bentley or VW Group? I suspect VW". Yep, I agree. I think it's probably the " "supercar" description they used, together with the reason for change (going electric) which made Audi spring to mind, but it could equally be a Lambo!Bentley, though obviously possessing supercar performance is to my mind more adequately known as a flagship 'luxury' car. It's also an enormously heavy lump of metal! Not IMO a candidate for electric propulsion, so I'm thinking more along the lines of a sports car. But ya never know!Yep, also to the CTP low multiple. The plastic moulding business is high volume low margin. I don't get TOO carried away with the China expansion either... I have concerns that although it's a cheap labour market... we all know how little respect the Chinese have for IP if they decide to grab the action for themselves... funded by the goverment! The way CDS keeps trundling along I also think it's a good idea to factor in the possible negatives in the event of them calling it quits! IMO it's 50/50 on which way this is all going to go and not really surprised to see the share price take a hit.

[yump] 22/10/2015 22:39

queeny2

Will you turn up with optimism when CAR announce something good ?

I suppose you could class your last post in June as vaguely positive.

At least you're transparent when promoting your own interests.

[dontay] 22/10/2015 21:10

Hi queeny2... "does that mean CAR do or don't supply them for other vehicles, say other Audis, at the moment"? IMO the answer is no... they (at the moment at least) are only involved in bespoke LED designs for specific very high end models. But yes VW are a major customer by virtue of the other very high end brands that are in the VW group and with which CAR's LED designs are undoubtedly also involved. You be right that VW's very existence might be under threat due to the seriousness of the emissions scandal but I doubt that will have much impact on the other iconic supercar brands in the group. We might see Golf's, Skoda's, Seat's and even Audi businesses caught up in it but I doubt the true high end companies will... those brands will survive... TOO much in the way of international VERY wealthy vested interests not to IMO... most of those brands have a permanent and regular customer database... with a waiting list 12 months or longer even before any launch date is even known. In many cases the end customer doesn't know what the finished product is even going to look like... they just pay for the name! And when it finally becomes available they then just stick it in an air conditioned, climate controlled garage alongside the rest of their auto collections! :)