Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[dontay] 08/12/2015 14:11

Cheers rivaldo, reads well indeed.Hopefully we will also soon get positive news of the healthcare practitioner review. It seems future investment decisions for CDS will depend on that review and if that also comes out positive it will be very good news for Carclo.Carclo Diagnostic Solutions (''CDS'') analysts presentation:• CDS has continued to meet its development timelines with phase 2 requirements all due for completion by Dec 15.• During the period we have been able to generate strong technical data on the performance of our Micropoc platform and this will be shown to potential collaborators at forthcoming medical conferences.• We have commissioned a healthcare practitioner review of the Micropoc platforms and intended applications as part of the board's strategy to continually evaluate the strength of the opportunity given our continued investment in this area.

[rivaldo] 08/12/2015 12:49

There's a new summary of the CDS proposition on its web site.

The results and prognosis read well:





Results extract:

"Final assay time of ~30 minutes is a large reduction compared with commercial ELISAs which typically take 150 minutes or longer."

[rivaldo] 04/12/2015 11:05

Finncap today reiterate their Buy and 170p target:

[rivaldo] 26/11/2015 11:12

Good news - Finncap have initiated coverage today with a 170p target price:

[rivaldo] 24/11/2015 10:57

A new Edison note is out.

It reflects the confidence in the core businesses as "quality businesses with strong long-term stories, but Carclo’s earnings multiples relative to established small-cap growth stories with similar dynamics have yet to fully reflect this".

It believes 175p is a reasonable sector price target:



Conclusion:

"Valuation: Scale of discount unjustified

Carclo’s shares still trade at a discount to the average earnings multiples of the UK comparators with established long-term growth stories (Laird, Victrex and Gooch & Housego).The average FY16e P/E for these companies is 18.4x and applying this to Carclo yields a share price of 175p, 17% ahead of the current price. Although we consider a certain level of discount is warranted, we regard the current discount as too great and look to further positive news on trading and customer wins to help reduce the discrepancy."

[ali47fish] 24/11/2015 09:52

2 days in succession falling?

[rivaldo] 23/11/2015 07:49

CAR's results presentation reads extremely well. Highlights include:

- new China factory for CTP will drive growth next year - "pre-production is underway for our multi-year programme for medical component manufacture by an existing US-based customer"
- growth opportunity in LED from first programme win for major new group, as CAR "Secured a flagship vehicle programme for a new major customer group and we see significant potential"
- Further efficiency gains expected in H2 from the US business
- New LED cornering light technology now adopted for first programme
- "Plan to expand the manufacturing facility at Bangalore, India to satisfy increasing demand from both existing and new international clients"
- CDS is expecting commercial partnerships from Q3'16

[meijiman] 19/11/2015 17:52

Thanks. Better feel to this. Not sure the 400p days will return any time soon but a few decent building blocks in place might help get us back over 200p.

[dontay] 19/11/2015 17:40

N 1 Singer... have upped their buy price target to 156p.

[dontay] 19/11/2015 17:35

XSense won orders too, for 3 tablets from HP... including one which was HP's flagship multi- jacketed business tablet. Those contracts were taken over by UNXL and were the reason for cit being contracted to supply the film and support to the end of October. Those contracts have only just finished. Problem wasn't that XSense was useless it was simply a loss making production process comparative to all the rest of the sensor solutions that exist. We shall have to wait and see if UNXL's new hybrid printing process can succeed where Carclo and Atmel couldn't and make it a profitable operation.

[meijiman] 19/11/2015 16:36

Yes -any accrual would be via a royalty stream. Got to suspect that if Carclo had their time over they would have done things differently.
If Carclo don't RNS it then suspect not big potatoes.

[yump] 19/11/2015 15:53

Which begs the question, although now redundant: was it a big mistake to go into bed with Atmel, which seriously restricted the possible market for initial orders ?

Given how much of a pigs ear Unipixel made of their announcements / hype etc., yet they are able to reel in what looks like a significant and definite order.

At least now that market is relatively de-risked for CAR, who in theory just wait for royalties. Until there is some dispute. I wouldn't put it past Unipixel.

[meijiman] 19/11/2015 14:45

Article suggests they hope to win further orders.

[rivaldo] 19/11/2015 14:02

Well well....big Unipixel news just out. Royalties coming CAR's way?



"Thu, Nov 19, 2015, 9:01AM EST - US Markets open in 29 mins

UniPixel Receives Initial Mass Production Order from Japanese PC Manufacturer

Providing XTouch sensors for new 10 inch tablet

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Nov. 19, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- UniPixel, Inc. (UNXL), a provider of Performance Engineered Films™ to the touchscreen and flexible electronics markets, announced today the receipt of an initial mass production order from a leading PC manufacturing company based in Japan for a 10-inch tablet product. UniPixel expects the initial delivery of XTouch sensors to this new customer to occur in the current quarter and the first quarter of 2016. The Company expects the lifetime of the product to be in the range of three to four quarters.

etc"

[rivaldo] 19/11/2015 07:27

Nice overnight plug on Motley Fool:



"Investor appetite driving higher

Shares in Carclo (LSE: CAR) have gone absolutely gangbusters during Wednesday trading, and the business was recently dealing 10% higher from the previous close. Investors have continued to pile in following Tuesday’s bubbly trading update, giving the industrial chemicals play — which had conceded a third of its value since May up until yesterday’s release — rare reason for cheer.

Carclo advised that total revenues leapt 17% during April-September, to £57.2m, a result that propelled underlying pre-tax profit to £41m, an 80% rise.

The company had its LED Technologies arm — which builds lights for the automotive industry — to thanks for its stratospheric sales surge, with revenues here galloping 48% higher in the period to £21.2m. And I expect revenues to continue to climb as auto sales, and in particular those across the ‘luxury’ sector, march higher in the years ahead.

And despite today’s stellar share price rise, I believe that Carclo still provides terrific value for money. The West Yorkshire business is expected to experience a 20% earnings blast in the 12 months to March 2016, resulting in an ultra-low P/E ratio of 11.7 times. And this moves below the bargain barometer of 10 times for fiscal 2017, a further 21% bottom-line bounce pushing the reading to just 9.7 times.

These brilliant earnings predictions are anticipated to drive dividends significantly higher, too. Last year’s payment of 2.75p per share is predicted to jump to 3p in 2016, yielding a handy 2.7%. And a projected dividend of 3.3p per share for the following year pushes the yield to 3%."

[dontay] 18/11/2015 23:51

beeezzz... they are forecasting the deficit should start to fall now and given that expansion investment which has been quite substantial over the last couple of years and which should now start to drop away to more normal levels... the deficit position should substantially improve over time. Just hope we don't get another impairment for CDS anytime soon... but never underestimate CAR's ability to disappoint just when everything in the garden seems to be going hunky dory,Now that the UNXL contract to supply them with film has been completed, I'm wondering what they are going to do with all that machinery and if they are going to proceed with their previously stated intention to sell queeny2's favourite shed in Cambridge! That should bring in a bob or two!

[beeezzz] 18/11/2015 22:35

Are their liabilities debt + pension which would mean a total debt of £40m...if so they really need to improve margins and quickly; debt is not good IMO cash rich is best.

[yump] 18/11/2015 21:59

I'm waiting for a chartist to explain the chart - got to be one of the strangest.

Remember, in your answer you're not allowed to use newsflow to explain it.

[illiswilgig] 18/11/2015 18:34

1gw, yes you are correct in your reading of the statement

- as far as you go, but you forgot the 'and none of our forecast revenue from the VW group is generated from the higher volume vehicle brands save for the delayed programme.'

This figures because thus far Wipac has focussed upon supercar programmes.

So of the fraction of forecast revenues ascribed to VW only a part of that relates to the flagship programme.

I've seen no evidence that CAR play games with their choice of language, but there are occasions when their choice of wording has not been clear and sometimes they appear to have been naive. I don't see any reason to believe this is the case in this instance.

cheers

[dontay] 18/11/2015 18:14

1gw... yes, along with CAR's claim that VW is a 'major customer' "majority forecast' does seem to imply that the Pheaton may not be the only model in the VW group that's also in for CAR's LED tech. Against that is the rns states that no other marques with a CAR LED contract has been dragged into the emissions scandal. There IS a risk IMO... if VW's have financial difficulties caused by having to settle future claims the over the scandal... and if that has an eventual effect on group plans for their premium marques. But I would expect that risk to be slight if there is one... those well known other VW marques would... under normal corporate governance rules... be set up as pretty much as individual standalone companies, financially and accountably isolated from the main group. Separately, I also think it's interesting (whilst on the subject of company 'language') that the Share mag article refers to the major NEW customer as a 'group'.

[1gw] 18/11/2015 16:57

Interesting choice of words there in Dontay's quote "...the majority of forecast revenues..."

Things like that always make me nervous with some companies' reporting as it suggests 49% of the revenues could come from the VW group. But I haven't studied Carclo's previous statements closely enough to have formed an opinion on whether they are prone to playing those sorts of games with their choice of language.

[rivaldo] 18/11/2015 12:42

With consensus EPS of 11.52p EPS for the year starting 1/4/16, a 170p-175p share price should come into range.

Medium term, I can see a return to 250p-300p based on the core businesses. Then there's the CDS wild card in for free.

[dontay] 18/11/2015 11:27

Yep... spot on, restricted use and only suitable for full beam... hopefully that's how it will remain. IMO the best bit of the rns was the important clarity we hoped for over other led contracts. It makes clear that the delay over the Pheaton one IS merely a minor hick up."As reported in our half year trading update on 15 October 2015, the VW Group has announced that its flagship luxury vehicle which was due for launch in 2017 will now be launched as an all-electric vehicle. The full ramifications of this decision on the lighting design have not yet been confirmed but it is expected that this announcement will impact on the timing of anticipated related revenues due to the likely change in vehicle styling. All of our other vehicle lighting programmes are for specialist marques and none of these vehicles are currently subject to any reported, or speculated, concerns around emissions performance. The majority of forecast revenues for the current year and following year are expected to be generated outside of the VW Group and none of our forecast revenue from the VW Group is generated from the higher volume vehicle brands save for the delayed programme".

[rivaldo] 18/11/2015 10:11

Great move today.....but hopefully only the start with the global upturn in CTP and the boom in the LED division.

As I understand it, LED lights will remain on cars - laser lights are merely an addendum to LED lighting and can only be used when the car is doing above 37 mph as they're unsuitable for urban driving.

[dontay] 18/11/2015 09:38

Cheers rivaldo. High volume 'big ticket' autos is where they need to aim at. The cheaper mainstream market is already pretty sown up by existing led suppliers. I think LED technology will only have a limited lifespan in the supercars class. Hopefully it should be around for 3/4 years but as beeezzz recently pointed out... laser light tech is looking like the next step up for that class of cars... nothing stands still for very long!Laser lights are already being fitted to the new Audi V10 supercar and as an optional extra on the new BMW series 7... albeit an £8,000 one! But forecast say laser could even be standard on BMW series 3 class cars in around 5 years time.