My dividend was received on the 20th.
It's gone back into the stock.
The best energy buy on the market - but just my opinion. |
Silverstone1
Lucky you !
I'm still waiting on mine :( & who knows when it will arrive.
Itching to it get it re-invested at these prices ........
That's some dividend by the way !
LOTM |
I RECEIVED MY £70,694.40 DIVIDEND ON THURSDAY EVENING BECAUSE I HOLD CNE IN CERTIFICATED FORM! |
 Still waiting on my Dividend arriving in my ISA account so that I can get it re-invested at these prices !!!!
I'm busy doing some calculations as to my end of year numbers regarding cash /
net receivables due / over due amount etc.
Yes hopefully the 30th Nov update on Egypt will provide some of the actual figures to the end of Oct, so that we can see the trends.
I believe we are currently getting net revenue from oil & liquids of $362,000 per day ( after OPEX costs & putting G&A costs at $100K per day [$3M a month] ) using 6,000 bopd.
I estimate depletion costs to be around $126,000 per day but that's money already invested, so isn't a cash figure but still needs to used to reduce the outstanding value of the assets accordingly.
Now that $362,000 per day won't be coming to us anytime soon. Its not due for payment until 1st December & it won't fall into the overdue category until at least 1st Jan 2024. I'm guessing it will be after 1st April before Capricorn gets its hands on it.
Still its a significant sum of money & if oil prices average the same to the end of the year it equates to over $27M net in just 75 days.
LOTM |
Very undervalued at this price.
I think there is an update on November 30. |
Hi hsfinch,
FAR have a completely different contingent payout mechanism to Capricorn, its linked to production & oil price out to around 2026 I think it is, there's was a far better (no pun intended) deal structure than Capricorn's. FAR are almost certain to get paid a large amount.
It will be touch & go, but I don't think Woodside are that type of company & $50M to them is a drop in the ocean.
LOTM |
And if they have to delay it by a few days to avoid paying out millions to Capricorn and FAR, they will. |
From Woodside today
""At Sangomar in Senegal, another two of the 23 planned wells were drilled, taking the total now completed to 14. Pre-commissioning work at the floating production storage and offloading vessel continued in Singapore. Overall, the Sangomar project is 90% complete and we remain on track for targeted first oil in mid-2024."
"Sangomar Field Development Phase 1
· FPSO topsides integration and pre-commissioning works continued in Singapore.
· The development drilling program continued with 14 of 23 wells completed.
· The subsea installation campaign was 80% complete, with the overall subsea work scope 96% complete at the end of the period.
· The project was 90% complete at the end of the period and first oil is targeted for mid-2024."
LOTM |
Market cap $185M (at £1.60 & exchange rate of $1.22 to £)
Net Cash in bank after special dividend & share buy-back to date $71.5M+ ($176 - $100 - $3.5M - $1M )
Net receivables due in Egypt $108M+ ($144 - $36)
There is still $9M to be spent on the buy-back so as the net cash amount declines by that amount so will the market cap value fall by the same amount.
Therefore Egypt is currently valued at under $10M.
That's if you disregard the contingent payments that are due in 2024-26 from Waldorf & the possible Senegal payment in 2025 provided production there starts by 30th June 2023.
If you give any value to the above (& there is definitely going to be a payment due for 2023 from Waldorf) then Egypt is literally given a negative value) or zero value.
LOTM |
Hi aspect100
Yes I'll be using my special dividend to buy another large block for trading as well.
Hopefully this sort of price is still available by the time my dividend arrives ( I'm guessing Monday at best knowing my broker, but they messed it up the last time & it took 2 weeks to get it)
Hopefully they shake out a lot of stock & get volume up so the company can munch away at these prices.
So far they've bought in just over 0.50% of the stock in 9 days (478,044 shares) & spent £834,105 doing so at an average price of £1.7488
That works out at just over 10% of the $10M having been spent thus far.
My model show's that at the current average price to date (£1.75) they will get to buy-in a further 4.11M shares. If it averages £1.70 from now on it will be another 4.23M instead.
The strength of the $ against the £ is also aiding the cause. I'm using $1.25 to be on the high side.
So the total buy-in is headed for around 5% of the company.
LOTM |
LOTM
I'm not much concerned about the price drop recently,as I'm going to use the dividend to buy more.
This is going to be a great investment eventually,especially if the oil price stays up.
The Egypt assets are not even in the price - best oil stock on the market at the moment.
The two others I like are ENQ and TLW |
Someone asked me a question on another BB & I thought it might be of interest to some here as well.
The buy-back trades themselves.
Is a good one to view, what it tell's us is that the buy-back trades are all marked AT on the LSE, Merrill Lynch are not usually the 1st trade in a sequence of trades all with the same time stamp, only part of the bunch turns out to be for the buy-back & they are literally all on the sell side register when you view them here on ADVFN.
So anything with an O isn't them, nor is anything on the buy side either, which means I now know what to look for much more clearly from now on :)
So the AT buy's are likely to be the insto's who are trying to build-up there positions like Goldman Sach's etc. Trying to make hay while they can.
There was hardly an O trade today, I think 20 in total inside normal trading hours & the largest of those was a 2,000 buy with only 3 other trades above 1,000 shares in size. So virtually no PI involvement/interest either way.
LOTM |
Company Website has finally been updated to reflect the share ownership as at 6th October.
This is name, new position, old position, number of shares & percentage owned of the 95.224M in issue at that date
Goldman Sachs collateral account 1 1 10,647,270 11.18
Newtyn Partners 2 2 8,816,666 9.26
Palliser Capital 3 3 7,431,767 7.80
Kite Lake Capital Management 4 4 7,163,629 7.52
Madison Avenue Partners 5 6 6,233,034 6.55
Irenic Capital Management 6 5 6,188,126 6.50
Dimensional Fund Advisors 7 7 4,335,427 4.55
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 8 8 4,312,448 4.53
Vanguard Group 9 9 3,985,847 4.19
So Irenic Capital's holding was down by 0.31% from that of 8th Sept, Vanguard was down a tiny amount.
Blackrock used to own 3.13% as of 8th Sept so they have clearly fallen below the 3% threshold since then, yet no notification of such has been issued to the company.
Centiva Capital who had acquired the voting rights to 3.01% of the company around the 22nd Sept don't show on the list & we know Bank of America have a far larger holding in the company's voting rights than is listed above, but the record seems to only show shares owned not actual voting rights.
LOTM |
Biggest closing auction since the buy-back re-started so hopefully Merrill Lynch managed to do there job properly this time round & bought back at least 80,000 shares today, maybe even 100K, as they are already way behind in getting that $10M spent before the end of the year.
They've only bought in 369,965 shares so far when they really should be north of 500K already out of the 4.5M+ there on target to currently buy-back (more like 4.8M+ at current prices) which will be closer to 5% of the company rather than the current projection of 4.73%.
Munch munch
LOTM |
hmm I'm not sure it will push on in the meantime finkie.
Only when insto's have got the position's they want to be in.
We know 4 of them are long the stock & they are competing with the buy-back for available stock.
I'm sure some Shareholder's are also waiting for there dividend payment to come through before they re-invest it back into shares as well. Mine will be going into another trading parcel for sure.
I'm happy for the share price to stay where it is for now even although I'm sitting on paper losses, as long as the buy-back gets munching bigger chunks of shares than its currently doing. Simply because lower price means more share bought back. More shares bought back means higher payouts per share further down the line.
LOTM |
Nice to see 170.5-171 push on now boys. |
Goldman Sach's continue to increase there overall voting interest in Capricorn time & time again.
They own most of it then they seem to sell it but not the voting rights then they buy it back & slowly but surely there interest in Capricorn grows & grows.
There are 4 institutions out there who have bought the voting rights to like 19% of the company that they don't actually own !!
Still not sure how that is possible with no-one supposedly shorting it !
LOTM |
Just bought a trading portion here at 165.5p I can see short term upside from here and hopefully quite quickly back to 180p. Cheers |
I clearly got this wrong, the old trading range is being re-tested on very light volume.
I will need to totally re-assess how I'm going to play this trading wise going forward.
Especially since 4 Insto's are long the stock, maybe they are behind the tree shake as they try to turn indirect holdings into direct ones.
Still waiting on the top shareholders data being updated following the consolidation.
Hopefully the buy-back gets to fill its boots for the day at these low prices & gets 75K+ of shares. All of which will help keep the average purchase cost down & means more shares will be retired by the end of it.
Which means better returns for everyone later on.
LOTM |
There are most likely not many in public hands,as it only takes a few small trades to move the price - up or down. |
I'm not a chartist or anything like that, but going by the chart in this thread, Capricorn has moved above its 50 day MA & is about to move above its 100 day one as well.
We also seem to be in a trend of higher low's & higher high's for now.
So will be trading it with that in mind as the old trading range is broken for now.
I bought 3 decent sized lots yesterday in the £1.83's lets see how it goes as I try to increase my long term holding of Capricorn.
LOTM |
aspect100
It certainly does.
Especially if your G&A costs are down $50M a year.
Inside 4 year's they'll have saved the current market cap of the company.
LOTM |
LOTM
You're right that every company situation is different,and some more complicated than others.
I think Capricorn has a much better future now. |
Hi aspect100
BP & Shell have destroyed an incredible amount of share holder value over the years & never been held to account for it, with the way they've done share buy-backs - they buy at the top & issued stock in the form of dividends at the bottom of the cycle etc.
Each buy-back situation is different & you need to look at them in isolation. Sometimes equity is the dearest form of debt a company has & by buying back the shares ( & thus not paying the dividend on them ) its actually better than paying down the debt.
Sadly I don't think Capricorn can just pay off the debt, otherwise I'm sure they would. They've set a matching sum of cash aside to cover it. I guess it might all be tied into how the Egypt purchase was structured along with Cheiron in the first place.
They did re-pay $33M in the 1st half of the year & are due to pay another $20M inside 12 month's. Which will take it down to virtually $100M.
LOTM |
Wow what is going on with these institutions!
Palliser has now managed to get the voting rights to 2.35% of the company in addition to the 7.8% they have held steadily for month's now.
So 4 Institutions have now bought indirect holdings in Capricorn, who on earth is lending them there stock ?
I guess that's 4 Institutions that see upside potential here.
LOTM |
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