Capital Share Discussion Threads

[ukinvestor220] 20/11/2012 15:48

drop it on another 3K sell
not raise it on the following 3K buy

[ukinvestor220] 20/11/2012 15:36

then report the 3K sell twice
30p sell changed to 29.5p

[ukinvestor220] 20/11/2012 15:35

so they have a 13K buy then drop the price again on a 3K sell .....

[ukinvestor220] 20/11/2012 15:02

MMs marking this down on zero trades - what are they up to ??

[junglee] 19/11/2012 10:34

Good riddance considering the lows to which the company valuation has been pushed down. Hopefully with the company's founder taking charge, albeit temporarily, it should be a harbinger of changes and better things to come. dyor.

[masurenguy] 19/11/2012 08:03

The CEO departs !

"In order to maintain the growth of the business, which enjoyed record revenues of over $79m in the first half of the financial year, new leadership is required to build on the significant contribution which Geoff Fardell brought to the Group and to move the Company to the next stage of growth. Jamie Boyton, Executive Chairman and co-founder of Capital Drilling, will act as interim Chief Executive until a replacement for Mr Fardell has been found."

[naked trader] 14/11/2012 14:19

To me these look cheap but very little activity of late. I have watched these fall from 80 pence but can help thinking that they can't fall much further can they?

[greenroom78] 05/11/2012 16:53

I thought MMs were filling an order. Rising on sells is usually a sign.
215k @33p just showing.

[wjccghcc] 05/11/2012 13:12

Perhaps, although it is a hugely cyclical business. It's worth noting that in H1 2010, utilisation was 60% and ARPOR $128,000.

[troc1958] 05/11/2012 12:50

At CAPD share price of 31p market is discounting a huge slowdown in the resource exploration (& drilling) market. Did a quick (simplistic) financial review and 2013 forecast based on currently available figures.

My 2013 Revenue Forecast
Total (Avg no during year)Rigs for 2013 = 95
Capacity Utilisation = 75%
ARPOR (monthly) = £118,000 ($188,000)
Gross Revenue = £100.9 million
NPAT Margin = 11%
NPAT = £11.05 million
EPS = 8.21p
P/E = 3.78
[on a share price of 31p)

Sensitivity Analysis:
If Cap Util < 70%, ARPOR < by 20% and NPAT Margin < from 11% to 7.5% =
EPS = 4.34 and P/E 7.12 on a share price of 31p

Markets are treating CAPD very harshly

[thorpematt] 05/11/2012 12:07

Yep, I know it was me that brought it up in the first place (sorry - just like to keep the thread up to date) BUT I don't think the CEY thing will have had on iota of effect on CAPD.

Drilling has continued all the way through. If anything, the whole sorry episode will likely confirm that the future is very much with outside investment encouraged and supported. Thus CAPD and CEY ultimately benefit.

[nilip] 05/11/2012 11:18

CEY share price recovering with strength.

It's up another 20% again today also, following on from the sig. rise last Friday.

[pugugly] 05/11/2012 08:29

Hi - Just checked with the Coy - ARPOR figures are advised as monthly gross revenue not quarterly. Statements could be clearer. (imo)

[masurenguy] 05/11/2012 08:24

"However, the judgement states that sufficient evidence was not submitted to Court in order to demonstrate that the requisite approval from the relevant Minister had been obtained, and thus the
court deemed that the process of the conversion to an exploitation lease was therefore invalid. Centamin, however, is in possession of the executed original lease documentation which clearly shows such approval from the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources. It appears that this document was not listed in the documents supplied to the Court. As such the Company is confident that this matter can be resolved during the appeal process."

Looks very promising to me although you can never be certain that this will finally resolve the issue until it has been submitted, and recognised, at the appeal hearing.

[greenroom78] 04/11/2012 14:38

Apologies, I was looking at the 2011 figure (8.8p ish), Digital look have 7.5p for this year and similar for next. Still a forward P/E of a little over 4 with a discount to NTAV. Yes CEY could hit those, but how hard and for how long? I'd expect them to achieve some re-deployment even if they have to reduce their margins a bit.

[pugugly] 04/11/2012 14:31

Masurenguy:> Sorry - Mistaken. While i agree that they look attractive I am trying to quantify what the bottom line reduction will be if the CEY contract is suspended as a result of "Force majeure"


Greenroom78:> Not sure if I agree with your eps of 9 (I presume pence).. the latest Canaccord estimate for fy 2012 is 12 cents US ,at an exchange rate of $1.60this is equivalent to 7.5p, most of which should be in the bag BUT looking forward to 2013 where the eps estimate is 11 US Cents (6.8p) the estimate would be at risk if CEY goes pear shaped. Your guess as to what it would be is as good as mine - if my estimate (assuming no redeployment of some $12 million) in 316 above is anywhere in the ball park.

[masurenguy] 04/11/2012 13:55

PUGUGLY - 316: Masurenguy:. I seem to remember you ar an accountant by background? I would be grateful if you could advise I am making sense.

You're confusing me with someone else - I've no accountancy background whatsoever and my only involvement in that context has been in reviewing year end accounts with FD's and external auditors.
If you want an accountants perspective then I'm afraid that you'll need to seek it elsewhere !

I'm only a recent investor here - averaged in at circa 48p having first bought in just over 3 weeks ago. At that time I thought the business was at the lower end of its valuation metric and the subsequent Centamin scare has been overplayed in my view. Still waiting for some clarification on this issue and when that comes, subject to content, I might add further at these prices.

[greenroom78] 04/11/2012 12:51

Pugugly - Thanks.

But with a forecasted EPS of 9 this re-rating downwards surely allows for taking a hit, or are you thinking that they'll fail to make a profit? To me it looks like the CEY situation will drag out and all the time they will continue to operate as normal (IMO) so I think it'll give management plenty of time to build a plan B. Also we are trading well below NTAV, so I think that offers a bit of protection to the downside?

I welcome this debate, if we can get an idea of what various scenarios do to the bottom line and the value of the business then all the better for everyone.

[pugugly] 04/11/2012 12:19

Greenroom78:>: Depends very much (imo) on what %age of their fleet is contacted to CEY. If say it is in the region of 15%-25% then, given the weakening, as reported in the press of the exploration market for rigs in Africa and the cost of re-mobilization of rigs it could be substantial. Given ARPOR (revenue per rig) of $188K per quarter and say 20% of rigs i.e. 17 then there could be an annual revenue (atEBITDA level shortfall) (assuming no redeployment of some $12 million)

However from the ims "Profits impacted by labour & production disruptions in Egypt along with a weaker than expected Q3 in Tanzania, which combined account for approximately 40% of total revenues. "

I am assuming that by ARPOR ($) The Company means EBITDA revenue per rig and not gross revenue per rig - otherwise the figures do not (as Spock would have said) compute. eg: 88 rigs at ARPOR of $188K is $16,544,000 -V- declared quarterly revenue of $40.9 million.

If so the impact on the bottom line WILL BE VERY SIGNIFICANT.


Masurenguy:. I seem to remember you ar an accountant by background? I would be grateful if you could advise I am making sense.

The ARPOR figure only seems to make sense on an EBITDA basis.

[greenroom78] 04/11/2012 11:14

Thanks. The worst case at CEY is more than priced in here surely?

[masurenguy] 04/11/2012 09:51

Gold miner's Egypt crisis

Josef El-Raghy, chairman and largest shareholder with 6.5%, expects to receive a copy of the ruling this week, but said the administrative court had gone beyond its powers. "The licence can be repealed only by an act of parliament, and at the moment, there is no parliament," he said. "We are operating today and expect to continue to do so."

[greenroom78] 01/11/2012 11:05

CEY posted this yesterday on their website giving Q&A's on the situation.


Looks like they will continue as normal through any appeal (if it needs to go that far) and then if needed they would go outside of Egypt. Looks like political muscle flexing IMO.

[greenroom78] 01/11/2012 11:02

Agreed GP, looks way oversold and did before the recent update where IMO the Q3 weakness had already been priced in. Makes me think there is a forced seller. Surprised we haven't bounced back with CEY re-trading, especially given the market is price them as if there is a good chance a court will find in their favour (they'd be a lot lower if the market thought they were likely to lose IMO).