Capital Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 29/10/2020 12:20

Ah - cheers ds2, I did think aspects of it were a bit strange, but the date and the share price overrode my suspicions. Will check harder in future :o))

[dangersimpson2] 29/10/2020 09:55

This article has to be from October 2019 since it says: Two weeks ago the company announced a big mining services contract with Allied Gold Corp, together with a $3m investment into that company. Which was announced on 9th October 2019. hTTps://www.capdrill.com/media/investors/Announcements/CAPD-2019-10-Comprehensive-Mining-Services-Contract-Win-Website_Final-20191009.pdf He also calls Craig Burton "Craig Brown" which suggests his knowledge of the company, or attention to detail is limited. The lock-up he refers to is in the context of the 4.65m shares Burton placed in October 2019. No such lock-up now exists which is why Burton has been selling in the market down from the 6% to now below 3% - and hopefully much below 3%. I had hoped that the company would have used its buyback authority to take the majority of these. However, I think it is probably in a close period pending more mining services contract wins. A number of discussions were described as "advanced" in the 2020 Q3 update.

[rivaldo] 29/10/2020 09:34

Nice summary of CAPD by Mark Watson-Mitchell from a few days ago - he sees them going up above 100p. EDIT - it seems this dates from Oct'19, not from a few days ago..... Https://www.mw-m.com/post/capital-drilling-so-very-much-more-than-just-picks-and-shovels-1 Conclusion: "At the current 61p that puts the shares out on 13 times historic, 10 times current year and just over 8 times prospective earnings. It was no wonder why Craig Browns shares were snapped up so quickly. My end July profile put out a 76p Target Price by the end of next year, now with these latest announcements I see them easily trading up through the 100p level."

[rivaldo] 28/10/2020 08:59

Cheers Mas. Encouraging to hear that "there are an additional six tenders outstanding at present", with each one likely to add $6m-$10m earnings per mining services contract.

[masurenguy] 28/10/2020 01:02

Riv - here is some initial coverage. Peel Hunt has raised its target price to 90p from 86p and said it will look at it again if more mining services contracts are won. https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/932504/capital-limited-gets-new-target-and-upgrade-from-peel-hunt-932504.html

[rivaldo] 27/10/2020 12:32

Cheers miti1000, that's good news. Can't see anything online. Hopefully some coverage to come.

[miti 1000] 27/10/2020 10:12

Seems to be a broker upgrade from Peel Hunt from ADD to BUY. Not seen the note though sadly.

[rivaldo] 27/10/2020 09:39

Nice - 250,000 shares just bought at 65p.

[rivaldo] 26/10/2020 07:30

Today's update from Hummingbird contains an encouraging snippet about Yanfolila, where CAPD are contracted: Https://www.investegate.co.uk/hummingbird-res---hum-/rns/q3-2020-corporate-and-operational-update/202010260700071241D/ "Exploration and drilling: As outlined in the exploration and drilling release on 8th October, see here , Hummingbird is seeing further positive results, giving the Company confidence of the overall resource and life of mine potential at Yanfolila. These results can be seen in more detail below but include drill hole 16m @ 9.64 g/t from 47m depth from our Sanioumale East ("SE") deposit"

[shanklin] 23/10/2020 10:42

IMHO, the seller would do so much better taking a break for a little while and then coming back and trying to place the lot, probably at a much higher price.

[frazboy] 23/10/2020 09:20

Agree with the sentiment Rivaldo, lots of stock on offer at 65p - as determined from some dummy trades. I’m sitting back and waiting to see if the sellers patience wears thin and hopefully gives us a better price.

[rivaldo] 23/10/2020 08:37

Thanks Shanklin. I'm already overweight here, but it's soooo tempting to buy more at these levels :o))

[shanklin] 21/10/2020 06:11

CEY Q3 Report includes "During September, Centamin submitted applications for several new exploration licences in Egypt and we look forward to continuing to work with our partners at EMRA and the Ministry of Petroleum to further develop Egypt's gold industry." Potentially more work for CAPD

[shanklin] 16/10/2020 11:40

...and not have an incessant seller with loads of stock

[hpcg] 16/10/2020 10:55

Top end, beat, and above expectations are what drive multiple expansion. If there is one thing to learn from US companies it is forecast conservatively and always beat.

[gleach23] 15/10/2020 13:22

Although it probably contributes to the delay in exhausting our seller? Thanks for the posts btw.

[rivaldo] 15/10/2020 12:50

Agreed ds2. I go along with your figures - but I would rather Berenberg and others forecast reasonably cautiously, such that CAPD will announce they're trading at the top end of forecasts and may well beat them.

[dangersimpson2] 15/10/2020 11:34

Not seen the Berenberg note, but from the summary Q4 looks a bit light to me. - the company did $100.4m revenue in Q1-Q3, so $136m revenue would be $35.6m vs $35.5m for Q3, so effectively flat. - Assuming the 3.5xEBITDA quoted is the FY20E then that would be $25.4m EBITDA forecast for FY20 based on a 65p share price and current securities portfolio valaution. The company did $15.4m EBITDA in H1 and by my estimates at least $7m in Q3. Which would mean Berenberg are forcasting only $2m EBITDA for Q4. However, from the Q3 trading statement we know that existing long term contracts are performing as expected, and there are at least 6 additional rigs being deployed to new explo projects during Q4. I think revenue of c$39m and EBITDA of at least $8m is achievable for Q4 assuming the 6 additional rigs are able to be deployed on time. This is long way above the c$35m revenue and $2m EBITDA that Berenberg appear to have in for Q4. I guess we'll see which one of us is right in time.

[rivaldo] 15/10/2020 11:05

Here's some detail on Berenberg's increased 97p target price: Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/931347/berenberg-raises-capital-target-price-after-strong-quarter-931347.html "Berenberg raises Capital target price after strong quarter Analysts bumped up the full-year revenue forecast to US$136mln from US$133mln Capital Limited (LON:CAPD) got its target price raised to 9,7p from 95p by Berenberg after the third quarter figures beat analysts’ expectations. The bank, which retains a ‘buy’ rating on the Africa-focused mining services company, said quarterly revenues of US$35.3mln beat its US$33.5mln forecast. Analysts bumped up the full-year revenue forecast to US$136mln from US$133mln. Capital noted that it remains in advanced discussions in the contract mining business and that it continues to gradually build fleet in preparation for its entry into this market. “We would hope that Capital is in a position to announce a contract mining win in the fourth quarter, and… there is significant revenue, underlying earnings (EBITDA), free cash flow and valuation upside in this fledgling business,” Berenberg commented. “We continue to believe the shares (trading at 3.5x EBITDA) are mispriced, particularly given compelling cyclical fundamentals in the drilling business and clear upside in the contract mining business.”

[death by donut] 13/10/2020 19:32

Berenberg 97p from 95p

[hpcg] 13/10/2020 14:16

Shanklin - In what way have investors bought in too early? Today's price is above mid-July and a short period a year ago. Then one has to go back to 2017, which definitely was too early.

[shanklin] 13/10/2020 11:59

Well we should know quite a lot more from the Q4 TS in mid January.

[dangersimpson2] 13/10/2020 11:11

Tamesis mainly just regurgitated the RNS! I doubt they will do any real work on their model for FY21 until FY20 results in March.

[qs99] 13/10/2020 10:57

800k blimey....shame some billy big Bs can't just hoover the lot up, given the broker "extremely undervalued" quote AND yield opportunity etc. DYOR

[gleach23] 13/10/2020 10:55

Ever the optimist (so feel free to totally disregard this!) but I think Burton will be cleared shortly. After today's further positive update, there will surely be institutional demand at this level to take up what's left of the overhang, plus director interest. Since he's below 3% I guess it's a matter of looking out for those clearing trades now, as we won't have any further Holdings RNS for him (unless there is one to confirm he's out). @ 63-65 it looks to me as though over 800k are available to buy. It's so ridiculously high for CAPD that I'm wondering if it might be a precursor to a large trade to be processed. Here's hoping.