Capital Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 21/1/2021 13:04

Just on the trading psychology element. Some potential investors and some current investors are currently paralysed about buying in or adding. The cause is "the big seller", and whether "the big seller" will unleash a wall of stock causing new positions to go under water. The chart shows that even "the big seller" has a limit, which caps losses in the 10-15% area at existing purchase prices. It also shows a clear higher low. The next wall of worry that some new buyers will face is the reverse; they'll be paralysed because the price is going up and they have missed the opportunity. Because of this some people will pull the trigger well north of 70p, 80p or even after new highs are made. On the other side of the trade for new buyers are the sellers. Some of those are also afraid of "the big seller" coming back. Some are very happy with their quick 10%. Some are underwater and are overjoyed to either cut losses or close flat. Everyone of these is blinded to both the realistic valuation, even though in the buyers case it is why they are interested in the first place, and the fact it is the liquidity provided by "the big seller" that has created the discount. I'm not casting aspersions; I've suffered from every single of those thoughts and behaviours and I suspect very few shake them of entirely. Anyway, this is all a long winded way of saying that I too have been adding today, and will continue to add to leveraged positions on the way up.

[qs99] 21/1/2021 12:07

I go back to the fact that I have not seen the words "bewilderingly undervalued" in a broker note before! Hope that the sellers are soon cleared totally!!! GLA and DYOR

[someuwin] 21/1/2021 11:46

Yup - me adding too.

[sphere25] 21/1/2021 11:35

Adding here. Market makers are shifting up and price is starting to shift on smaller buys. I don't know when that last line of shares is going to get cleared (or if indeed it has with delayed prints to follow and the price moving on thinner volume) but don't want to be chasing like a lemon when the offer dries up so a fear of missing out positioning here now. Bloomin market psychology :-) All imo DYOR

[rivaldo] 21/1/2021 10:29

FYI I came across this summary of CAPD on Reddit from last week from a holder, which seemed to trigger a bit of interest judging from the comments: Https://www.reddit.com/r/UKInvesting/comments/kxvxkm/seriously_undervalued_capd/

[sphere25] 21/1/2021 10:02

Interesting market maker movements here with Peel Hunt who had the sell order coming off the offer and now bidding. Unsure if some large prints to follow but a first possible bullish sign here. There were some significant chunks exchanged yesterday shown by delayed prints. It's always hard to gauge how many the seller has left but the line might be coming nearer to the end with these movements. All imo DYOR

[someuwin] 21/1/2021 09:15

Looks like all buys so far today.

[yasx] 20/1/2021 15:01

Escape, It has indeed.

[escapetohome] 20/1/2021 14:16

Hopefully the poor management handling has given an extended opportunity to buy at a bargain price. Im in.

[yasx] 20/1/2021 14:07

The markets are buoyant - the Board have not done a great job in relation to this persistent seller(s). Even the placing was badly handled - it would surely have been better to take out the seller by way of an aggressive buyback some months ago, allow the price to appreciate and then undertake a placing at a level higher than that at which they recently issued shares. Here we are, either with the same seller(s) or those who bought in the placing bailing for a negligible gain not impressed by the recent action (the latter would seem unlikely but you never know).

[gleach23] 20/1/2021 10:52

Yes, there had been just over 20k available to buy since yesterday but that's now just over 10k and the Offer has moved to a full 62.5p so hoping for a move up shortly Edit - following that apparent 100k sell there are now just 2 shares available to buy so let's see where we go from here

[someuwin] 20/1/2021 10:46

Lots of 20k buys going through.

[someuwin] 20/1/2021 07:32

Commenting on the appointment, Jamie Boyton, Executive Chairman, said: 'We are excited to welcome Giles to Capital. I am extremely pleased we have attracted someone of his calibre who brings extensive experience that is closely aligned to our strategic growth direction. His contribution will complement our transition into delivering earth moving services in addition to our existing drilling, laboratory and maintenance services, and I look forward to working closely with him. On behalf of the Capital Board, I would also like to take this opportunity to thank Andre for his outstanding service since joining Capital in 2009 and wish him all the very best for the future.'

[rivaldo] 19/1/2021 07:39

From Centamin's quarterly report this morning - the Sukari expansion is going well: "An accelerated stripping programme commenced during the quarter utilising the Company's owner-operator fleet. In December, the Company contracted Capital Ltd ("Capital") to complete a 120Mt waste-stripping programme in the Eastern section of the open pit over the next four years. Capital are well progressed with the mobilisation of their fleet and team on site and are on track to commence material movement in H1 2021. The programme has been designed to introduce greater flexibility into the open pit mining operations which will support increased confidence in meeting our stated production targets in the future."

[yasx] 18/1/2021 18:25

Rivaldo, One can't place the blame on the brokers - if the Co. wanted to flush out the recent seller by adopting the various strategies that have been outlined on here, they could have. Whatever instructions they provided to their broker at the time of orchestrating the placing, well, they ought to have gone about it in a far more productive way. As regards the other investments, yes it is true to point out they are a significant contributor to NTAV, however, in fairness, I doubt anyone is investing in CAPD due to considering it a sort of investment fund or vehicle. It would be better if they sold or reduced a few of these to put the cash to buying back the shares and getting rid of the seller(s).

[rivaldo] 18/1/2021 14:34

All the trades going through at 62.99p are buys as you can buy at that price online (i.e well below mid-price). There's obviously still a decent-sized supplier of stock out there. Just completely bizarre. Berenberg especially (but Tamesis too) need to get off their bottoms and get busy. Apart from all the positives we know about, the Chairman spent £750,0000 of his own money on CAPD shares at 58p only weeks ago. Whether the portfolio is worth $26m at valuation or say $20m on realisation, the overriding point is that, along with the rigs and other tangible assets, a substantial portion of the m/cap is backed up securely even before taking into account the very cheap fundamentals and exciting prospects.

[yasx] 18/1/2021 12:07

Re listed investments - whatever the precise current valuation, it has to be the case that the actual figure that should be considered in relation to this must be lower since by definition these are not sufficiently liquid and if CAPD were to sell these in the market they would not achieve the current price relating to each. On that point, I think it would have been a useful exercise for them to trim their stake in a few of them to generate some cash which could have been utilised to buy back the shares. Although I appreciate some of the investments are a necessary concomitant to winning business, reducing exposure would mean they are not stuck in illiquid stakes in microcaps if the market were to turn to the downside and would free up a bit of cash.

[dangersimpson2] 18/1/2021 10:40

Assuming the unlisted securities remain roughly the same value as the HY then I make the current securities portfolio valuation around $26.2m. Tamesis include the $23.2m HY valuation in their estimate of fair value but the extra mark-to-market isn't really material at the moment unless one of the holdings really takes off or the unlisted ones IPO at a significant premium. Not that it really matters when the fair value estimate is twice the current share price with significant upside skew.

[qs99] 18/1/2021 10:04

thanks Riv Not often you see a broker use the words "bewilderingly undervalued!" DYOR

[someuwin] 18/1/2021 09:42

Cheers rivaldo - amazing value here.

[rivaldo] 18/1/2021 09:32

Hi someuwin - have a read of the thread header post. Almost all of CAPD's investment portfolio is detailed there. This, plus the tangible asset value of CAPD's rig portfolio and other assets, backs up a considerable portion of the m/cap.

[yasrub] 18/1/2021 09:17

Hmmm encouraging,but we have been here before!

[someuwin] 18/1/2021 09:16

I didn't realist this. Makes the CAPD buy case even stronger... "...The company also holds investments in a portfolio of both publicly traded and private companies. The value of the investments at end-June 2020 was $23.2m."

[rivaldo] 18/1/2021 08:55

Cheers mfhmfh - here's a direct link to the new update on Master Investor: Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/capital-ltd-yesterdays-trading-update-shows-the-way/ Good to see buying now at the full 63p offer or just under it. OT : Sphere25, not sure about the "mighty" bit :o))

[yasx] 16/1/2021 12:18

Chil, Why on earth would they buy back shares at well over over 60p having just raised a substantial sum by issuing equity at 58p? The time to undertake a buyback was prior to issuing more equity - in that way they could have got the price much higher by clearing the seller in order to issue equity at a price greater than that which they have managed.