Capital Share Discussion Threads

[yasx] 16/1/2021 12:18

Chil, Why on earth would they buy back shares at well over over 60p having just raised a substantial sum by issuing equity at 58p? The time to undertake a buyback was prior to issuing more equity - in that way they could have got the price much higher by clearing the seller in order to issue equity at a price greater than that which they have managed.

[hpcg] 16/1/2021 10:45

They've just raised money for expansion chillpill! Returns to shareholders ought to be minimal until the new Sukari contract is well underway and performing well.

[chillpill] 16/1/2021 07:09

I have decided to buy a small amount.It won’t be the most exciting share I own but it is fundamentally cheap. Not sure whether they have a share buyback facility in place but definitely something they should consider.

[mfhmfh] 15/1/2021 15:30

hxxps://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/capital-ltd-yesterdays-trading-update-shows-the-way/

[sphere25] 15/1/2021 15:08

Notable stream of buys coming in here. Is that the mighty Rivaldo at work again? :-) It's baffling this one, more than the others where sellers have been cleared to allow significant re-ratings. The waiting game continues with what appears to be a single significant seller holding the price back. In light of the demand for shares in the placing, and how close the price has been trading to the placing price, it shouldn't be taking this long to clear out. Without that demand, there would be a strong argument to suggest that the lack of daily volumes would naturally result in it taking this long (and indeed potentially longer) to clear a seller in size. It looks like River and Mercantile are farting about in trimming and adding so not a significant drag. I can't see any other natural sellers so either the valuation is correct here with the market happy to apply a low rating and ignore the transformational contract and forward growth opportunities or Burton is having an enormous laugh whilst reading our posts! :-) There is enough here to suggest a re-rating. That 446,276 trade being mopped up helps. Can't be too many more of those available to clear imo. What usually happens when the last line of shares is cleared, market makers rapidly close off any buying in size and shift the offer higher on nothing volume - the regular spikes on the chart here will testify to that. Ultimately, sticking with the view that the overhang is getting eaten into and there is a price anomaly here to capitalise on. Even beyond that, if the multiple here can't expand slightly by at least taking out the recent chart highs in a rampant market where almost every flavour jam is getting bought up to the high heavens, then well.. I guess we're doomed to fart about at these levels. Well, either that or we really need to start selling jam. Hopefully the next post here will be one of the first significant sustained share price move higher. All imo DYOR

[miti 1000] 15/1/2021 14:18

Added some more here...as you say level 2 turned around....but for how long this time!!

[gleach23] 15/1/2021 14:17

Looks like that 446k trade may have released the SP? :) Very little available

[rivaldo] 15/1/2021 11:02

Online has suddenly improved - you now have to pay 62p to buy, i.e well above the mid-price - and I can sell quite a few at a premium at 60.8p. Let's hope this is the turn and not the 26th false dawn :o)) EDIT - buyers now paying 62.4p EDIT2 - and now paying 62.8p-62.9p....

[rivaldo] 15/1/2021 07:23

Good news from Resolute Mining this morning - at their Syama mine "production is forecast to increase by more than 25%" this year: Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/RSG/cy20-production-update-and-cy21-guidance/14827824

[gleach23] 14/1/2021 15:27

As rivaldo says, so probably are some of the trades @ 62p. One can both buy and sell decent quantity @ 62p now.

[thepopeofchillitown] 14/1/2021 14:20

All the 62.05 are buys

[gleach23] 14/1/2021 14:14

Yup - pretty impossible to tell which are buys and sells today. Disappointing to note that there are apparently 350k shares available to buy whereas one can sell up to 25k online. So much for thinking it was going to be different this time! Having built up a trading position ahead of this update I was disappointed not to see anything striking to act as a catalyst for an immediate jump in share price but will hold most of it whilst the 60p support is in place. Quite happy with my long term holding.

[rivaldo] 14/1/2021 13:38

I was a little confused that most of today's trades had been at the 62p bid price or thereabouts - turns out I can currently buy decent amounts online at exactly 62p. Which means there's STILL a sizeable determined/hard to credit seller out there. And also that the few who've paid 63p this morning were unlucky. And that CAPD's brokers are really not doing their jobs whilst this stock is drip-fed out. When this rises - and it will imho - it will surely REALLY go. There must by now be a lot of people out there waiting to spot the turn.

[thepopeofchillitown] 14/1/2021 13:04

Back in today.

[dangersimpson2] 14/1/2021 11:14

Tamesis are clear that they are being intentionally conservative, saying "...the forecasts and growth referred to above are still very much skewed to the upside."

[deanowls] 14/1/2021 11:08

If Tamesis maybe looked at who was selling and matched them up with some investors we wouldn’t be so lowly rated.

[adamb1978] 14/1/2021 11:01

Looking at consensus estimates, they are grossly behind events in my view. EPS for 2022 showing as 10.5 cents (CENTS!!) based on a 12c figure from Berenberg and 9 cents from Peel Hunt. In my view, the 2022 EPS will in the 14-17 cent range. Obviously helpful for us to take positions (and I've added more this morning) but possibly also meaning that the company will continue to fly under the radar until those analysts improve their infant-like maths skills and come up with proper estimates.

[adamb1978] 14/1/2021 10:22

The Tamesis figures still look somewhat light to me. If you take FY20 revenues of $135m and try to bridge to 2022 when the mega contract is in full flow, that'll add say c.$60m revenues p.a. That takes you to $195m in 2022 alone. Tamesis are assuming $215m revenues in 2022 so really arent being that ambitious on other wins over the next 2 years. Nearer term, H1 EBIT was $9.6m and they forecast $15.3m for the full year I agree with their conclusion about share price being very low though!

[dangersimpson2] 14/1/2021 10:13

Slightly disappointed with the Q4 performance, I'd expected slightly higher utilisation. I think this was partly to do with timing, I'd under-estimated the mobilisation time in the current environment so I think lots of the new contracts started partway through Q4. It is interesting that they mention even more rig movements into West Africa since this is clearly key to the utilisation increasing further. Of course, the flip side of this is that these shorter-term contracts will go longer into 2021 adding to the strength of results there and the outlook here is of course very positive. Good to see that Tamesis finally getting up to speed with events and moving their price target. I note another small upgrade in 2021E EBITDA. Seems daft that Tamesis went from c$32m to $51m EBITDA estimate for this year in the last six months and they've only just thought that their price target needed review. At least they are now recognising that the company is "bewilderingly undervalued".

[shanklin] 14/1/2021 09:36

LOL rivaldo I nearly posted earlier that I thought the share price should be twice current levels. But then thought WTFDIK and decided against it. Very pleased to see Tamesis came to much the same conclusion based on much deeper knowledge of the company. This is my 4th largest position albeit none of that is unrealised gains.

[rivaldo] 14/1/2021 09:32

Tamesis Partners have now increased their target price significantly to 127p. They conclude that CAPD are "bewilderingly undervalued". They see a massive 15.7c EPS for next year, i.e 11.6p EPS when the new Centamin contract kicks in. They have 12c EPS for last year, i.e 8.9p EPS, including $10m of investment gains from CAPD's equity portfolio. Without those gains they have 6.7c core EPS, i.e 5p EPS at $1.35. For this year (2021) they have 10.2c core EPS on both metrics, i.e 7.6p EPS. That's a P/E of only 8.2. Https://www.tamesispartners.com/research-portal#/portal/tamesis-partners/research/f2e7168c-a7ce-4949-b373-e25c6c30d8e4 "Leaving the company bewilderingly undervalued Capital Ltd now has numerous sources of income ranging from their traditional drilling contracts through the burgeoning MSALabs business through to the new mining services operations. Theinvestment side of their business also recorded its best year ever in 2020. They are now spread across Africa having successfully entered West Africa c.2 yrs ago. As per this morning’s announcement trading conditions are “extremely positive”. So we don’t understand why the market is according such low valuation metrics to the business. The shares are trading on EV/EBITDA of just 2.6x and 2.0x for 2021 and 2022 respectively –equivalent to a discount of 45% and 54% to its peer group (none of whom are delivering the same scale of growth) likewise PER multiples of 8.2x and 5.4x. In addition,we estimate the company should pay a dividend of 2.4cps in 2021 and 2022, equivalent to a yield of 2.9% (with clear upside to our 2022 forecast). As a consequence of the above we are raising our 12-month Target Price to 127p.This target price is calculated by applying a 5x multiple to our 2022E EBITDA of US$66.2m, and we believe the market will start to price this in by June this year."

[rivaldo] 14/1/2021 07:29

The Q4 trading update looks good to me - another half dozen new drilling contract wins, plus the big new Barrick lab services contract. The quarterly numbers are only just below the excellent Q3, with the run rate now suggesting annualised $140m+ revenues with all the new contracts set to add to that. Whilst the annual numbers are nicely in line and well up on 2019. The transformative Centamin contract will be earnings accretive towards the end of this year, and with the gold price so high all those new contracts should be joined by more in the meantime. More specific guidance will come with the prelims, but CAPD's outlook is summed up by: "As we begin 2021, we are encouraged by the strong trading conditions, with a number of other tendering opportunities in progress".

[tole] 13/1/2021 09:04

Did my bit to help and took a few more at this price.

[yasx] 12/1/2021 18:04

Is this overhang really the same seller? He must have finished by now - there must be others at it...