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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Capital Limited LSE:CAPD London Ordinary Share BMG022411000 COMM SHS USD0.0001 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.00 -3.33% 58.00 58.00 60.00 59.50 59.00 59.00 189,726 16:35:08
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Support Services 86.6 11.0 5.8 10.4 109

Capital Share Discussion Threads

Showing 2201 to 2222 of 2400 messages
Chat Pages: 96  95  94  93  92  91  90  89  88  87  86  85  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
04/1/2021
17:24
O/T Should we not welcome Burton's continual selling, badly executed or not, as it has provided an opportunity that otherwise wouldn't have existed. No complaints from me. apologies for the off topic post but I would say that something similar happened very recently at Hochschild Mining (HOC). Asagi (long CAPD, HOC)
asagi
04/1/2021
15:49
Should we not welcome Burton's continual selling, badly executed or not, as it has provided an opportunity that otherwise wouldn't have existed. No complaints from me.
bo doodak
04/1/2021
15:26
Yes, too early to say if he is out, or has changed tactics, but immaterial which to an extent. One presumes he needed the money urgently, or possibly thought gold would crash and activity drop commensurately. No matter if it was either or another reason the sales were spectacularly badly executed.
hpcg
04/1/2021
14:19
Burton's ludicrous selling has cost him and CAPD many millions of pounds.
shanklin
04/1/2021
14:14
Ds2, I've updated the thread header for the two name changes you pointed out. If you're aware of any other changes in name or shareholdings please let me know! I suspect that Burton is now fully out given the share price movement - especially with sells being readily absorbed today by the market.
rivaldo
04/1/2021
12:28
Either Burton is finally out or has realised that hitting the bid in volume every day is not a good strategy! I think the real test will be if we can break resistance at 78p. The Q1 trading statement in a couple of weeks should provide some impetus and we'll find out whether the overhang really has cleared.
dangersimpson2
04/1/2021
09:11
Online looks rather encouraging - currently you can sell a maximum 40,000 shares at 66.08p, but you can only buy a maximum 12,000 shares at 67.9p. Hopefully indicative of a continuing scarcity of shares.
rivaldo
01/1/2021
00:56
Yes, 2nd Dec
dangersimpson2
31/12/2020
13:25
ds2 Is it the CEY Capital markets day presentation and webcast from 02-Dec-20 that mentions that CAPD were not the lowest bidder, or should I be looking elsewhere? Thank you, Martin
shanklin
31/12/2020
12:57
Solooiler, Sure, there will some aspects where brokers may have some guidance from the company but I'm not sure they will be able to estimate depreciation better than you or I. At the HY they had cUSD55m tangible assets and depreciation of $5.5m so this suggests the average life of assets at c.5 years. They are spending c.USD65m capex on the Sukari contract so that would be USD115m + whatever capex is on other contracts, let's say USD15m. USD130 / 5 years = USD26m per year or a USD15m increase. This is higher than the broker estimates, BUT the company are not stupid. They are not spending USD65 capex on Sukari to generate returns below their cost of capital. We know from the Centamin call that CAPD were not the lowest price bidder and considerations such as the ability to deliver and their willingness to train local labour were key to them winning the contract. We don't know what the mining services contract will deliver in terms of incremental EBITDA but if we ignore the drilling rig side then there is USD55m incremental capex. Even if they just cover the value of the capex over the 3.5 years of operations then this covers the additional depreciation. And as I said, I doubt they are doing this contract at cost. So what about the rig side. Q3 they had 60 rigs operating out of 98. We have 4 rigs added in Q4 in WA + 9 in Sukari. We know of at least 2 additional rigs from exiting fleet. If we say other contracts add a few extra rigs given the scope for further wins & extensions - then it's 78 operating rigs for 2021 out of a fleet of 111. A utilisation of just over 70% - not unrealistic given where we are in the cycle. ARPOR tends to increases as contracts mature so I think 175k up from 171k Q3 is reasonable for 2021. Other mining services adds say USD25m at 20% GM and we get just less than USD50m EBITDA combined excluding the sukari mining services contract. So, even if Sukari just washes its face, I simply can't see EPS (excluding MTM on equity positions) dropping in 2021 even with the additional depreciation & dilution. On the rig side, I wouldn't be surprised if 2022 wasn't higher on utilisation & ARPOR than 2021 too, given where the current PM cycle appears to be heading. Fair point on FCF - but this is often the case with companies pursuing rapid revenue growth. It has never harmed the share price of other rapidly growing businesses. And the flip side is that when the cycle turns they simply turn off capex and they can generate significant FCF even when the EPS reported is -ve. Look how much debt they paid down during the last downturn.
dangersimpson2
31/12/2020
10:04
Yes, Solooiler, all is forgiven , please come back!!
miti 1000
31/12/2020
09:46
Ever since Solooiler started deramping, the share price has been improving. Happy to tolerate the former if it means the latter continues :-)
shanklin
31/12/2020
09:40
hopefully CB has finally exited.
mfhmfh
31/12/2020
08:42
I'd imagine Barrick Gold( World number 2 biggest gold miner) will provide the source of big contact wins soon. Remember that Barrick bought out Acacia and only started production in Tanzania in April 2020 and CAPD work with Barrick and are big in Tanzania.
miti 1000
31/12/2020
08:32
Nice to see and end of year tick up.....my additional take is that the CEY agreement was just one on which they were bidding....hopefully they will win more than their fair share, but often they take time, so would like to see a few more in the "win" pile in Jan/Feb.....POG also holding up well which should encourage more exploration et al IMO as golders count their $s made in 2020.... Happy New Year QS99
qs99
31/12/2020
07:58
I welcome someone 'kicking the tyres' and it makes you reevaluate. It is a little disconcerting in the context that the poster announces he has sold and then provides thereafter a number of posts of such concern. I have tried to check via twitter using #CAPD to see any P&D tweets but all I could find were reasoned comments. As the poster has now made his points and can move on with his investments I guess he will show his professionalism by doing just that.
yasrub
30/12/2020
23:01
Excellent summary ds2, thanks. And worth pointing out that Tamesis Parners had CAPD on a P/E of just 5.4 for 2021 at 65.3p prior to the new Centamin contract - so even assuming no immediate benefit from that contract, and the placing dilution, CAPD would still be on a rather low multiple considering its excellent prospects and asset backing (including a cash-rich Balance Sheet and the investment portfolio). I also note that Hastings has today written a very good new summary of CAPD on his web site which which should help spread the message further: Https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/digging-for-returns-with-capd-30-12-20
rivaldo
30/12/2020
21:54
Great post mate thanks
qs99
30/12/2020
21:47
Great post. V glad to be invested here. GLA
gokarna97
30/12/2020
18:23
Not seen the Berenberg note, but the brokers here have been consistently behind the curve. If you rely purely on brokers estimates to make investment decisions you will likely lose a lot of money. The edge that those only reading out of date brokers notes, rather than doing their own modelling, will have is the one that cuts their portfolio to shreds. That said, my own modelling for 2021 largely agrees with the Tamesis estimates of cUSD50m EBITDA for FY21. This is an increase of around 50% vs USD32.4m estimated for FY20. So even if the Centamin mining services contract doesn't deliver any EBITDA for 2021 then the increase is more than the 37% dilution. In reality, even at the lower margins of mining services vs drilling the 2021 EBITDA is likely to be higher than USD50m due to the centamin contract and significantly higher in 2022 with the contract fully operational for the whole year. Plus there is a high chance of further contract wins in this area being fully operational by then. On EBITDA vs PBT: a) 2020 tax is exceptionally high and the company have guided lower tax rates going forward. b) Depreciation will rise given the large capital investments, but contracts are profitable so the EBITDA will rise significantly more than the depreciation. c) I am always a little suspicious when a company changes its depreciation policy. However, in this case, it seems they changed the useful life of rigs given that they were rebuilding and reworking them. Assuming this is reasonable and the assets do last this long, and there is evidence they do because they are still using assets that were previously fully depreciated, then this is a permanent change to a lower depreciation rate rather than a change of depreciation methodology so it sounds like Berenberg haven't understood this. Again reading the AR yourself is better than relying on a brokers note for an understanding of a company.
dangersimpson2
30/12/2020
16:50
that is true spooky. breaking the wall apart is ebit up 12%, but share count up 37%. An 18% eps drag before interest and taxes
solooiler
30/12/2020
16:44
Solooiler - This years numbers include investment gains, next years forecasts do not include any investment gains. That is a significant part of the reason for the fall in EPS.
spooky
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