Capital Share Discussion Threads

[gleach23] 07/1/2021 11:41

Yes, there was a large increase in quantity available to buy online a couple of days ago. Currently it's around 600k shares so I'm not surprised to see a minor dip.

We should hopefully have a Q4 update next week or the week after so I'll be looking to trade any dips again in the run up to supplement my shareholding.

[yasx] 07/1/2021 11:10

Fozzie,

Indeed -but when they need to issue equity, out comes the promotional bandwagon, time and again.

[fozzie] 07/1/2021 11:07

If I had a fiver for every time we have said that over the years Yasx! Bloody useless most brokers in my experience, idle.

[yasx] 07/1/2021 11:04

Seller(s) still apparent past few days.

One thing that remains inscrutable is why they chose not to match the seller with those who were unable to get a sufficient allocation in the oversubscribed placing. That would have satisfied both parties and is surely a failing of the Co. and the broker.

One hopes the update this month enables this to grain traction.

[rivaldo] 07/1/2021 07:27

Encouraging results this morning from CAPD's drilling for ALT.

Most importantly, there's confirmation today that after the current drilling campaign completes, there are a number of additional prospects which will be drilled in a follow-up drilling programme:

[rivaldo] 05/1/2021 07:37

A brief overnight update from Mark Watson-Williams on Master Investor FYI:

"Capital Ltd (LON:CAPD) – directors buying more shares

Ahead of this mining services group’s trading update, due soon, I was pleased to see that boss Jamie Boyton, and fellow directors, showed faith in the group by taking up a total of 1.6m new shares at 58p in the recent £30m placing.

The group’s shares, which were 63p before the early December issue, rested at around 60p while the funds were collected in, then jumped up to 68p last Thursday.

Hold firm, I stick to my price objective.

(Profile 22.10.19 @ 61p set a Target Price of 100p)

(Profile 77.5p @ set a Target Price of 100p)"

[rivaldo] 05/1/2021 07:11

River & Mercantile increased to 5.04% from 4.84% only two weeks ago, so I suspect today's RNS showing a small fall in their holding is similarly just a reflection of the balance of their underlying discretionary clients buying or selling a few.

[asagi] 04/1/2021 17:24

O/T

Should we not welcome Burton's continual selling, badly executed or not, as it has provided an opportunity that otherwise wouldn't have existed. No complaints from me.

apologies for the off topic post but I would say that something similar happened very recently at Hochschild Mining (HOC).

Asagi (long CAPD, HOC)

[bo doodak] 04/1/2021 15:49

Should we not welcome Burton's continual selling, badly executed or not, as it has provided an opportunity that otherwise wouldn't have existed. No complaints from me.

[hpcg] 04/1/2021 15:26

Yes, too early to say if he is out, or has changed tactics, but immaterial which to an extent. One presumes he needed the money urgently, or possibly thought gold would crash and activity drop commensurately. No matter if it was either or another reason the sales were spectacularly badly executed.

[shanklin] 04/1/2021 14:19

Burton's ludicrous selling has cost him and CAPD many millions of pounds.

[rivaldo] 04/1/2021 14:14

Ds2, I've updated the thread header for the two name changes you pointed out. If you're aware of any other changes in name or shareholdings please let me know!

I suspect that Burton is now fully out given the share price movement - especially with sells being readily absorbed today by the market.

[dangersimpson2] 04/1/2021 12:28

Either Burton is finally out or has realised that hitting the bid in volume every day is not a good strategy!

I think the real test will be if we can break resistance at 78p. The Q1 trading statement in a couple of weeks should provide some impetus and we'll find out whether the overhang really has cleared.

[rivaldo] 04/1/2021 09:11

Online looks rather encouraging - currently you can sell a maximum 40,000 shares at 66.08p, but you can only buy a maximum 12,000 shares at 67.9p.

Hopefully indicative of a continuing scarcity of shares.

[dangersimpson2] 01/1/2021 00:56

Yes, 2nd Dec

[shanklin] 31/12/2020 13:25

ds2

Is it the CEY Capital markets day presentation and webcast from 02-Dec-20 that mentions that CAPD were not the lowest bidder, or should I be looking elsewhere?

Thank you, Martin

[dangersimpson2] 31/12/2020 12:57

Solooiler,

Sure, there will some aspects where brokers may have some guidance from the company but I'm not sure they will be able to estimate depreciation better than you or I. At the HY they had cUSD55m tangible assets and depreciation of $5.5m so this suggests the average life of assets at c.5 years.

They are spending c.USD65m capex on the Sukari contract so that would be USD115m + whatever capex is on other contracts, let's say USD15m. USD130 / 5 years = USD26m per year or a USD15m increase.

This is higher than the broker estimates, BUT the company are not stupid. They are not spending USD65 capex on Sukari to generate returns below their cost of capital. We know from the Centamin call that CAPD were not the lowest price bidder and considerations such as the ability to deliver and their willingness to train local labour were key to them winning the contract.

We don't know what the mining services contract will deliver in terms of incremental EBITDA but if we ignore the drilling rig side then there is USD55m incremental capex. Even if they just cover the value of the capex over the 3.5 years of operations then this covers the additional depreciation. And as I said, I doubt they are doing this contract at cost.

So what about the rig side. Q3 they had 60 rigs operating out of 98. We have 4 rigs added in Q4 in WA + 9 in Sukari. We know of at least 2 additional rigs from exiting fleet. If we say other contracts add a few extra rigs given the scope for further wins & extensions - then it's 78 operating rigs for 2021 out of a fleet of 111. A utilisation of just over 70% - not unrealistic given where we are in the cycle.

ARPOR tends to increases as contracts mature so I think 175k up from 171k Q3 is reasonable for 2021.

Other mining services adds say USD25m at 20% GM and we get just less than USD50m EBITDA combined excluding the sukari mining services contract.

So, even if Sukari just washes its face, I simply can't see EPS (excluding MTM on equity positions) dropping in 2021 even with the additional depreciation & dilution.

On the rig side, I wouldn't be surprised if 2022 wasn't higher on utilisation & ARPOR than 2021 too, given where the current PM cycle appears to be heading.

Fair point on FCF - but this is often the case with companies pursuing rapid revenue growth. It has never harmed the share price of other rapidly growing businesses. And the flip side is that when the cycle turns they simply turn off capex and they can generate significant FCF even when the EPS reported is -ve. Look how much debt they paid down during the last downturn.

[miti 1000] 31/12/2020 10:04

Yes, Solooiler, all is forgiven , please come back!!

[shanklin] 31/12/2020 09:46

Ever since Solooiler started deramping, the share price has been improving. Happy to tolerate the former if it means the latter continues :-)

[mfhmfh] 31/12/2020 09:40

hopefully CB has finally exited.

[miti 1000] 31/12/2020 08:42

I'd imagine Barrick Gold( World number 2 biggest gold miner) will provide the source of big contact wins soon. Remember that Barrick bought out Acacia and only started production in Tanzania in April 2020 and CAPD work with Barrick and are big in Tanzania.

[qs99] 31/12/2020 08:32

Nice to see and end of year tick up.....my additional take is that the CEY agreement was just one on which they were bidding....hopefully they will win more than their fair share, but often they take time, so would like to see a few more in the "win" pile in Jan/Feb.....POG also holding up well which should encourage more exploration et al IMO as golders count their $s made in 2020....

Happy New Year

QS99

[yasrub] 31/12/2020 07:58

I welcome someone 'kicking the tyres' and it makes you reevaluate. It is a little disconcerting in the context that the poster announces he has sold and then provides thereafter a number of posts of such concern. I have tried to check via twitter using #CAPD to see any P&D tweets but all I could find were reasoned comments. As the poster has now made his points and can move on with his investments I guess he will show his professionalism by doing just that.

[rivaldo] 30/12/2020 23:01

Excellent summary ds2, thanks. And worth pointing out that Tamesis Parners had CAPD on a P/E of just 5.4 for 2021 at 65.3p prior to the new Centamin contract - so even assuming no immediate benefit from that contract, and the placing dilution, CAPD would still be on a rather low multiple considering its excellent prospects and asset backing (including a cash-rich Balance Sheet and the investment portfolio).

I also note that Hastings has today written a very good new summary of CAPD on his web site which which should help spread the message further: