Capital Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 02/12/2020 07:25

Yes, rather bitter sweet given the damage caused by CB.

[rivaldo] 02/12/2020 07:20

The fantastic news - a "transformative" new contract at Sukari "of US$235 - 260 million over a four-year period commencing 1 January 2021, representing the largest award of new business in the Company's history".

The not-so-good news - a £22m placing at 58p to part-fund the necessary cap ex. This could have been at 75p-80p at minimum if not for bl..dy Craig Burton, who's really screwed things up for all the other shareholders dilution-wise.

Good to see all the directors putting more money in. Hopefully this huge contract win will see the share price rally nicely given the terrific prospects for CAPD from both the exciting business already in place and now this extra turbo boost.

[rivaldo] 30/11/2020 07:38

Good news - Cora Gold to initiate a new drilling programme in Mali:

[rivaldo] 26/11/2020 15:22

Hopefully it's just R&M trimming a few rather than anything more. Seems bonkers to me given all we know....but then WTFDIK :o))

[shanklin] 26/11/2020 12:08

Per the 2020 AGM, "the maximum aggregate number of Common Shares that may be purchased is 13,698,090;"

[dangersimpson2] 26/11/2020 10:19

R&M were aggressively selling down Driver Group recently. They were much more willing to take a haircut to get out in volume than our recent seller though. With Driver they sold the largest chunk at 42p with the price in the mid-'50s when they started selling. It is back up to 55p today.

Of course, if they are selling their full 5% then this is not going to be good news for the share price in the short term, but this would also be an amazing opportunity. Imagine being able to buy at c.1x 2021 EV/EBITDA in size!

Does also highlight why the company should pull their finger out re: stock buybacks.

[gleach23] 26/11/2020 10:12

Agree miti...not the best when we already have another large seller. On a more positive note though, at least their reduction doesn't account for all the volume on Tuesday so hopefully Burton's stake was reduced by 0.5m or so shares.

[miti 1000] 26/11/2020 08:42

Not the best rns...another big seller sadly. In another big holding of mine, volex, I'm plagued by institutional sellers, although in that case, profit takers. I'm sure both will be proved to be premature in their sales.
In the case of CAPD, there will be significant inflows next year to counter those sellers.

[rivaldo] 25/11/2020 08:17

Yet more work confirmed to start next month:



"Oriole to start drilling at Bibemi before year-end
20th November 2020

Aim-listed Oriole Resources expects a Boart Longyear drill rig to arrive at its Bibemi project site in Cameroon, by early December, which will enable the company to start its 3 000 m diamond drilling programme before the end of the year.....

....Oriole, under the terms of an option agreement with Bureau d’Etudes et d’Investigations Géologico-minières, is earning up to a 90% interest in the Bibemi and Wapouzé projects in northern Cameroon by spending $3.12-million over four years.

Oriole is currently in the third year of that investment period.

The company in September signed a diamond drilling contract with London-listed Capital Drilling to conduct drilling on site, which will focus particularly on stacked veins recently identified at the northern end of the 5.3-km-long Zone 1 target."

[gleach23] 24/11/2020 17:42

Another 340k shares reported after the bell bringing the total for the day to just shy of 1m shares traded. Decent volume day eventually.

[shanklin] 24/11/2020 16:16

Tempting to buy more if only we knew how many shares CB still held, and it was very few.

Where are those 394 shares?

[gleach23] 24/11/2020 14:58

Yes, must be rivaldo. He had 4,095,394 so on alert now for a random large trade ending in 394!

[rivaldo] 24/11/2020 13:13

500,000 shares through at 65p, presumably Craig Burton's. With just over 4m shares on 18th September - over two months ago - he must surely be getting reasonably close to exiting completely!

[hpcg] 24/11/2020 12:34

I'd rather have broker target beats than inline. Irrespective that the number is the number if we are to learn anything from US markets and peoples biases and behaviours they simply respond more optimistically to beats.

[dangersimpson2] 24/11/2020 12:29

Yeah, most broker targets are just a round number picked from thin air, somewhere above the current price, and then they calculate their valuation metric based on the target. Which is why you often see things like "we value it at 200p which is 15.6x 2023E adjusted EBITDA" and you think that is both a weird precision, a lot can happen between now and 2023, that multiple looks rich for a company that hasn't grown in 5 years and the adjustments look inappropriate!!

Here it seems to be the complete opposite, but then you realise that brokers earn most of their money from placings not research. So a company like CPAD who don't need fresh equity are of little interest to them. Incentives matter!

[mfhmfh] 24/11/2020 11:50

share price has bounced off the 200 day MA nicely. MACD turning positive.

However, Craig Burton may ruin it all (again).

[rivaldo] 24/11/2020 11:39

Agreed ds2, Tamesis' 102p target does look undercooked. But that's just standard practice - no doubt firther upgrades from them will come after the year end trading update or the 2020 prelims. That's just what research houses/brokers do - and Tamesis are actually ahead of the game compared to Berenberg and Peel Hunt's current targets!

[shanklin] 24/11/2020 11:02

The brokers certainly don't seem to be go getters

[masurenguy] 24/11/2020 10:49

Agree dangersimpson2 - added a few more @68.70 earlier.

[deanowls] 24/11/2020 10:32

Correct danger, seems very lazy to me. The fact that they are starting to sweat assets that capex is already expensed stands ya in good stead. They must be aware of where the overhang volume sits at and should be out trying to get it placed rather than holding us back.

[dangersimpson2] 24/11/2020 10:25

Their 102p target is looking increasingly daft IMO. To get those quoted multiples they must have upgraded their 21 EBITDA estimates to around $50m, which is now above my 2021 estimate.

But despite that big upgrade in EBITDA estimates, to keep their price target they must have downgraded their fair value estimate to 3.2x EV/EBITDA for 5x EV/EBITDA. At 5x their price target would be £1.50.

This looks a lot like a case of picking a price target and then backfilling the fair-value multiples to get that answer! In reality, I think they just can't be bothered to re-assess the price target at this stage which gives an advantage to those who do their own estimates and targets.

[rivaldo] 24/11/2020 09:45

Tamesis Partners have issued a new note today, reiterating their 102p valuation
- and a 2021 P/E of just 5.4....



"Recommendation and Valuation

These new contracts are a good example of Capital Ltd’s growth potential.Through the winning of the initial contract and then it’ssuccessful execution, Capital has been able to expand on its initial proposal and then introduce further elements of its suite of business offerings.In this case it is laboratory management and analysis services including its new technology on assaying. It is also noteworthy that the client is global giant Barrick. We believe conditions remain strong for the demand for these products to grow(i.e an elevated gold priceand a post Covid return to normality).

As such the shares continue to look extremely undervalued; trading on a 2021E EV/EBITDA and P/E of 1.9x and 5.4x respectively. We maintain our PT of 102p."

[gleach23] 24/11/2020 07:36

Feels like the first of several days we've been waiting for :)

[rivaldo] 24/11/2020 07:20

Big contract win and expansion of relationship with Barrick - very nice indeed, with two more rigs taking the total to four, for the next two years, plus a five year lab services contract.

Lots of recurring income going forward then, plus a big vote of confidence for CAPD from one of the industry majors:

[otemple3] 23/11/2020 14:48

Bit more willing to deal today so added another 30k shares @65p. Fingers crossed one day the overhang clears and the rerate begins....