Capita Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 03/4/2020 10:05

Read buywell and save money

buywell3 - 11 Aug 2019 - 13:24:03 - 1121 of 3141
Intu Properties PLC - INTU


We are now NOT in normal market conditions

Things are abnormal and getting worse as a Global Downturn bites and the currency wars ratchet up.

buywell gave Retail and Banks and Property sectors the thumbs down over 3 years ago on ADVFN, along with a warning on base metal and other commodities like OIL ( not GOLD ).


Spending by consumers is drying up and has been for years as many charts show.


Only debt has kept things going , along with cheap rates of interest.


The pound is symptomatic of the trouble England is in , however granted , it has given the markets a brief respite when in point of fact with Brexit still not sorted and the political landscape looking like a minefield , UK markets have much further to now fall should US markets take another nosedive as OIL drops back to $45 and less which IMO will now happen.


The above is the MACRO anyone buying shares now should IMO consider


dyor

[pal44] 03/4/2020 10:03

Wow saying that their strength is 'outsourcing' may not imply as the Co. has been damaged in recent times .The outcome after Cov-id 19 may well be different as there will be other players the Govt will look to . But hey lets watch and see how it works out ..

[babbler] 03/4/2020 10:03

I bought around 24. But seems to be dropping further. :(

[sbb1x] 03/4/2020 09:09

Added more

[lastchance23] 03/4/2020 06:27

Buywell3<<

As far as I'm aware, they have already transitioned the pension problem, that was why they cut the dividend a couple of years ago; which was forecast to come back in at 200m free cash flow, hence why investors got upset with initial forecast of 160m 2020 (since withdrawn to covid-19).

Regarding the covid-19, this does have long uncertain outcomes, however from Capita UK perspective there is likelihood a significant proportion of the population may have already been infected, since airports have not been restricted, lockdown was late, and 1 infection can lead to 400 without social distancing. Therefore testing and the governments decisions will play a big part in how long this lasts. My sentiment towards the government supporting them is strong, the government are busy, they may need to outsource, and this is Capita's strength.

[buywell3] 03/4/2020 03:06

IMO too much debt and pension deficit , these could now possibly take this lower and possibly sink it unless the UK Government perhaps decides to nationalize it along with several others that are in similar dire straits.

The BOE buying new issued bonds might be tried first though, but the queue to get these away in coming months is already IMO growing ever longer.

---------------- Covid-19 a very insidious virus ------------------



The Covid-19 situation is bad enough in this first wave sweeping through various continents and ALL countries of the Globe.


However till a treatment and cure is found then after lock downs are removed


There is a very real IMO chance of a second wave of infections which would then lead to a second tranche of lock downs

Therein lies the nub of the Covid-19 problem

Circa 25% of people with Covid-19 do not show any symptoms and do not even know they have got it BUT they are spreading it to others .

USA markets will dictate where the EU and UK go

Jobless claims have doubled in a week


With weeks to go as cases increase in NY City and now LA and other US cities kicking off it is difficult to find an argument to support US markets rallying as unemployment numbers continue to rise further .

On present trajectory such claims look set to top 12M within 10 days IMO

FTSE to 4500 is buywell call

Some FTSE 100 stocks may well have to be nationalized

UK Debt could well now rise to circa 200% of present 2.2 Trillion pounds GDP before a cure and vaccine are found , these may even not be forthcoming.

A different Flu comes along each year
Flu is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses
Not much difference , both can cause pneumonia ,
pneumonia can then cause sepsis
sepsis then can cause septic shock , with a 40% fatality rate



Covid-19 might be here to stay albeit slightly mutated each year

10% of over 80's are dying from sepsis and septic shock after acquiring Covid-19

dyor

[the canadian mounted] 03/4/2020 02:43

Yes I am 👍🏽

[lastchance23] 02/4/2020 19:08

<<The Canadian mounted

I take it your referring >>ltcm1

[lastchance23] 02/4/2020 17:52

Pointless selling at this point, same risk as many industries, but banks will be more respondent to servicing debt and a lot of the business can be done digitally and remote. I find it hard to believe it will go to zero, only if there market manipulation.

[ltcm1] 02/4/2020 17:06

This will go to zero, get out while you have a chance.

The govt will support Capita but the shareholders will be toasted.

[lastchance23] 02/4/2020 16:18

<<pal44 was that reference to my comment? Or the thread?

My comment was indicative of the fact the company has significant links with government, therefore if it has liquidity issues the banks will be more likely to lend and long term it should be able to recover. However, nobody knows how Management will steer the business through this, so there is uncertainty, but this is same for a lot of businesses. I feel this is a fair assessment.

[sbb1x] 02/4/2020 16:12

A few more under 26 thank you.A buying day today ?

[diku] 02/4/2020 15:56

Down down deeper deeper down...

[lastchance23] 02/4/2020 15:17

Nobody knows for sure, but the fact the company generated 50% of revenue from gov last year, increases odds it won't go to zero, and if management handle this well over next 3-6 months this could be one of the most oversold stocks. Don't expect a rocket anytime soon, this is a long hold know.

[blueball] 02/4/2020 14:50

Back in back out.

[babbler] 02/4/2020 11:34

Recent support.

[owlbaby] 02/4/2020 09:50

CPI are top of 250 volume list just now

[owlbaby] 02/4/2020 09:47

It was shorted down to 20p on 16 March but pulled back to 32-40p range before guidance withdrawal Friday. Shorting & realisation that management do not have same enthusiasm for 100 interactions with Government over Covid 19 as for digitalisation/consultancy.

[hawaly] 02/4/2020 09:21

Support??

It's at least at 16 year lows - probably worse if anyone could find a longer timescale chart.


GLA

[babbler] 02/4/2020 08:45

Can't blame you. At support.

[babbler] 30/3/2020 11:26

Nice. Plenty to go. Target circa 38 to 40.