Paul sure, sure, sure your invested... |
@Peter - Ha we do have common ground after all then LOL ... As I also totally agree that Capita had become too fat (especially around the middle management pen pushers drawing large salaries for little delivery) ...
And ... That is why I was pleased to hear that cost cutting was being extended to £250m as there has got to come a time when these middle managers are just no longer needed ...
I think Adolfo (not Alfonzo) said that he hope to achieve this additional savings through natural attrition (which implies minimal cost).
A leaner, meaner, fitter and profitable Capita is definitely the destination (probably at the expense of short term revenue) and removing layers of middle management pen pushers must be the ultimate goal ...
I have total faith that Adolfo will achieve this ... hopefully in 2025 |
Happy New Year to you too Trenners. I'm invested so I want success, but have not seen the changes necessary to achieve it yet or even projected. If not I would invest more. I think the company dedicates too much resource on feel good soft box ticking, which, although may be commendable introduces a level of built in overhead which makes it uncompetitive when providing basic services. Alfonzo is equally guilty of this. I also think anything technical with a decent margin attracts a disproportionate number of hangers on which don't just add very little, but actually get in the way of delivery. Whole levels of management can and should be removed otherwise lip service is paid to the Agile and AI enhancements driving growth. |
@Peter - you make some fair comments but at a 14p share price this must be an absolute bargain based on the £2.4bn turnover and the management team and the sales pipeline and the sum of the parts.
I guess I'd be more worried if we were sat at £1/share but 14p/share just doesn't make sense ...
There is being unloved ... Then there is Capita ... Which is not only unloved but, currently, unwanted (by the city).
I think we will see that change in 2025 and I'd be astounded to see the share price lower than this in a years time (Rodney).
Without ramping - I'd be disappointed if we are double or even triple this by 31/12/25.
Happy New Year! |
I agree the pensions business is where the value currently is and is propping up others, but margins outside pension project work are under pressure with some happy clients having to move to lower cost providers on tender. IT Brain drain is also an ongoing problem. |
Hi Trenners you have to give the ramping some balance which means calling out paid write-ups for what they are, showing how Capita is not alone with the tech they roll out and are bidding for jobs with, nor can a telecom focused tech hire no matter how good be expected to wave a magic wand with new value propositions across sectors they have no experience in at all. The call centre teams love the tech but it hasn't translated to revenue or any new bid wins. These have been lost solely on cost. And who are the VP level management in the structure? These are the ones making the bids and who have to deliver. You may think a new broom sweeps clean, but no, pretty much the whole bunch pre date Lewis. That is how well they can protect their turf. |
Keep buying that is my message for the new year!! |
@Peter - why are you so negative here all the time?
Lots of city analysts (like Richard Staverly from Rockwood) are all reporting the same sort of review as Edison.
This is definitely undervalued by any measure (the comment about the Capita Pension business probably being worth more than the entire company market cap was eyebrow raising). |
Edison is a paid for service, give the brief, make the payment and they say it. They have absolutely no credibility at all. I just assumed everyone knew this, it is common knowledge. |
@Wooster & @Simon
It's really heartening that well respected analysts / fund managers, when they take a closer look at Capita, unanimously agree that AH is upto the task of turning this company around and just needs a bit more time.
It gives me great hope, whilst I sit on my very large paper loss, that this will come good in the end! |
whilst the salary levels for the CEO and CFO are excessive given the company's market cap, for the CFO to invest his own money equal to 50% of salary is a huge vote of confidence. |
Fundie, Richard Penny, with a succinct analysis of the current situation at 21.45:
Vox Markets - 18/12/24 |
WOOSTER4 - Yes you’re correct. Pablo Andre, Capita’s CFO purchased 1.2m shares on 8th August making his total holding 1.85m. Not an insignificant holding by any means. Probably the person best placed to assess Capita’s financial position. |
Announced Traded Action Notifier Price Currency Amount Holding
07-Aug-24 05-Aug-24 Transfer From Adolfo Hernandez - - 2,509,709 3,159,709
06-Aug-24 05-Aug-24 Buy Tim Weller 16.24 GBX 1,062 820,675
05-Jul-24 04-Jul-24 Buy Tim Weller 14.07 GBX 1,228 819,613
13-May-24 10-May-24 Buy Tim Weller 14.18 GBX 1,217 818,385
05-Apr-24 04-Apr-24 Buy Tim Weller 12.91 GBX 1,336 817,168
21-Mar-24 20-Mar-24 Buy Nneka Abulokwe 13.25 GBX 74,324 74,324
18-Mar-24 15-Mar-24 Buy Adolfo Hernandez 14.07 GBX 325,000 650,000
15-Mar-24 15-Mar-24 Buy David S Lowden 13.65 GBX 250,000 500,000
07-Mar-24 04-Mar-24 Buy Tim Weller 20.40 GBX 846 815,832
06-Mar-24 06-Mar-24 Buy Adolfo Hernandez 16.21 GBX 325,000 325,000
07-Feb-24 05-Feb-24 Buy Tim Weller 19.72 GBX 875 814,986
08-Jan-24 05-Jan-24 Buy Tim Weller 22.45 GBX 767 813,236
08-Jan-24 05-Jan-24 Buy Jonathan (Jon) Lewis 22.45 GBX 770 3,249,051
06-Dec-23 04-Dec-23 Buy Tim Weller 20.64 GBX 838 812,469
06-Dec-23 04-Dec-23 Buy Jonathan (Jon) Lewis 20.64 GBX 835 3,246,741 |
buying is not a sign of performance, want to take a look at Schroders buys ? |
Dave the Divisions are really good at hiding reality from the Head Office. All contracts are in the bag, project work from existing clients will have huge margins, restructuring will create synergies ..... Do you really think they would have bought in with the knowledge they would lose clients and be cash flow negative at year end. Not a chance. |
One can talk the talk ...talking becoming reality is another...under the wider economic conditions... |
We have only seen talks from AH and his team. Reality is share price down from 22p to 14p since AH joined. This is his performance so far. |
Only in time will we know which opinion was right. However, I also take the view that the quality of this team will successfully transform Capita into a cash generation machine. That faith is also evidenced in their share purchases - the FD bought two lots of £50k’s worth of shares in May then topped it up in August buying £200k’s worth (1.2m). So in 12 weeks within the business he saw enough evidence to consider tripling the value of his shareholding. As they say, actions always speak louder than words. |
@Perer - a business is only as good as the people that run it .... And the people running Capita NOW are absolutely top drawer.
I understand why you would be unimpressed by the Capita of old ... but the old guard (led by Lewis) have been swept aside.... And we have some SERIOUSLY clever and successful people driving strategy and steering the business now.
If this class management team can't save Capita then no one can .... But I firmly believe they have the skills, expertise and experience to make capita a great, profitable, company again.
The people driving Capita now have SUCCESS written all over themselves! |
It's obvious your research is just on the people they are hiring, I'm just saying that for Capita past performance means squat. You have provided no content in how the business runs at all and what was put in place prior to and after Alfonzo joining. Counter my arguments, I hold so would love to be proven wrong, just don't just point to invisible research or your output on other stock as it is meaningless. |
Business Units are for sale, the proceeds will be used to pay for redundancies in other areas which are never provided for and debt will be temporarily reduced. Margins will be cut on the handful of remaining discretionary spend cash cows as the UK budget forces some serious belt tightening. That will be 2025. |
Then you will know that AWS, smart agent and all was rolled out in Germany 9 months ago to telecoms and insurance clients to much internal fanfare and generated nowhere near the expected revenue. Please give me your research rather than someone's cv. Telecoms clients are but a small and decreasing part of Capita's income. Bringing onboard a pile of telecoms specialists is no different from assembling the old successful team and is exactly what John Lewis did to abject failure. I suggest you have a look at the senior manager reviews on glassdoor over the last month, they are actually quite accurate, many from the tech teams they need to keep. |
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