Canadian Overseas Petrol... Share Discussion Threads

[asm5] 27/2/2021 18:59

Canadian Overseas Petroleum LimitedTHE ATOMIC DEALTwo operated oil fields: the Barron Flats Shannon Unit (57.7% WI) and Cole Creek Unit (66.7% WI) located in the Powder River Basin in the State of Wyoming, USA:· Current production rate of 1,400 bbls/d (gross) rising to 5,000 bbls/d (gross) in 2022 and c.7,000 bbls/d (gross) in 2026 (2P reserve case, Ryder Scott Report).ROAD MAP TO OWNERSHIP OF ATOMIC• Deposit (non-refundable): $1 million - COMPLETE• Initial Debt-Financed Payment: $8 million for 15% of Atomic's Working Interest in all of its leasehold on or before December 31, 2020. - COMPLETE· (Note: If the acquisition does not complete, the Company will retain this interest)• Assumed Debt: $26 million at closing – FINANCE APPROVED PENDING COMPLETION OF AUDIT• Total Additional Debt and Cash: $15 million at closing – FINANCE APPROVED PENDING COMPLETION OF AUDIT• COPL Common Shares to Atomic Shareholder(s): $4 million priced at closing – TO BE ISSUED AT CLOSE OF DEAL.The final possible completion date is 15/3From the latest RNS Thursday 18/2 "we are working with the Lender to complete loan documentation in the coming week." – Ryan Gaffney, CFO.VALUE TO COPLTotal Cost $54mEstimated share price on completion of purchase of Atomic : 1-2pDEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSET- Roll out tripling of the gas injection programme at Barron flats- Drilling cole creek plans- Production ramp up - monthly updates expected all positive incline so no surprises but each one adds to the market cap and net worthWHAT ABOUT THE OTHER OWNERS OF THE OIL FIELDS?There are good reasons to believe that a 100% purchase the asset is possible.- NOP (in financial distress) buyout would take us to 85%- Chinese own 15% (being forced to sell by US Govt)There is a $20m accordion facility built into the finance agreement which may be earmarked for this very purpose.DOES COPL HAVE ANY OTHER POSSIBLE REVENUE STREAMS?The Atomic deal came as a huge and very welcome surprise to the shareholders. The main reason that we had been holding was for the expectation that COPL's interest in OLP226, a large offshore asset in Nigeria, being developed.1 - PSR is assumed - no evidence to state it will not be agreed. It has been delayed several times however most shareholders would agree that it is likely to still occur.2 - Oil is found already, next to a producing prolific field - drill planned is appraisal not exploration3 - Essar want a rapid ROI to date on $70m exploration spend - can spend a lot, drilling costs very low and would want to capitalise on that asap - COPL are carried4 - Nigeria have much to gain from their oil assets getting to production.With 60k bopd assumed productionCOPL share at 15% (5% with option to increase)Oil at $40/btax 70%lifting costs $20/bThis equals $19.4m net profit p.amc $331mNote: Oil is currently approx. $60 per barrel

[saint in exile] 26/2/2021 17:22

..apart from the 92.5million share buyer Bill???

[sportbilly1976] 26/2/2021 14:48

Bill, .352 / .353 trades are buys

[billthebank] 26/2/2021 14:39

Unfortunately no buyers!!!!!?

[billthebank] 26/2/2021 13:51

Blue!!!!!Small acorns!!!

[sportbilly1976] 26/2/2021 13:29

MM's with a bit of stock at this level .353/354 to buy currently

[blueblood] 26/2/2021 13:03

Nice reversal should move lot higher to close valuation gap with asset NPV in March. Completion on 15th?

[sportbilly1976] 26/2/2021 10:51

Added some more this morning - back onto the support point with the rising trend and in anticipation of imminent Atomic confirmation

[greatfull dead] 25/2/2021 12:10

Sport, I thank you too. Great read. ATB, GD

[edgein] 25/2/2021 08:56

Sport, Cheers for posting that presentation, that makes for some reading, awesome! So if these had been treated like a normal RTO they would have relisted at an equivalent of 1.5p on completion on March 15th. Not long to go now. £146m suggested value looks very realistic on a NAV of circa $250m, with that underlying value obviously increasing as they get to 4500bopd and up to 7000bopd. Net backs inclusive of nat gas and propane costs at $44/bbl at 1400bopd is super! That will likely approach or even pass $50 on 7000bopd as most of the costs are fixed. So hopefully oil will average $60-65/bbl for the year. I don't see why not when the air travel and global economy set to get going again mid year. Other significant points in there too is the level of liquids associated with the 31mmbbls. Appox 28mmbbls of light oil, around 1.5mmnnls of natural gas liquids and only 0.6mmboe of gas. So these fields are almost exclusively light oil, no wonder they can get such a strong light sweet crude production profile from that. What is at least as important is the upside from consolidation of the asset the added bonus of the deeper formations. According to Art the deeper formations that haven't been developed offer significant further upside. Earlier articles suggested the stacked nature of the sandstone formation in these fields and the upside that offers. All in all a cracking presentation, the best I've seen since reading the one on 226. Answers a lot of questions about the make up of the reserves and further upside. Onward and upwards. Regards, Ed.

[billthebank] 25/2/2021 08:31

Surprised we arent well into 0.4s already as Canada was up 33% yest to 0.57p

[billthebank] 25/2/2021 08:17

Still nice start to the day

[billthebank] 24/2/2021 16:07

Exactly.Maybe tomorrow morning. cant understand why this is not testing at least 0.5!!! I am guessing it is AMs predelection for placings even when it isnt needed

[saint in exile] 24/2/2021 15:58

Thats this week we should have confirmation then

[billthebank] 24/2/2021 15:47

On the 18th Feb we said this:- The quality of the assets we are acquiring has allowed the Company to attract the debt necessary to complete and we are working with the Lender to complete loan documentation in the coming week."

[sportbilly1976] 24/2/2021 15:33

Link to the presentation: hTTp://www.canoverseas.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/COPL-Atomic-Corporate-Acquisition-Presentation-02-21.pdf Completion 15th March

[jamie414] 24/2/2021 15:09

On the website presentation Assumed MCAP post completion £146m :-D

[billthebank] 24/2/2021 14:55

Incredibly cheap sub £30M for an oil producer and with HSBC just buying 9.6B shares!!

[blueblood] 24/2/2021 14:05

About time we moved up really cheap with PoO increases

[sportbilly1976] 24/2/2021 14:02

MMs running short a bit? 0.37p paid for just 2mln

[blueblood] 24/2/2021 11:51

Completion RNS next week imo

[edgein] 24/2/2021 11:48

No, the lender is a large American institution/bank. HSBC probably bought that 5% because the market cap doesn't reflect the value of the developed assets being acquired. Also will help that COPL is main listed and not AIM. Regards, Ed.

[sportbilly1976] 24/2/2021 10:53

https://twitter.com/Dobbo761/status/1364525820480544769 close above 0.3p - yep technical target now 0.7p, news notwithstanding

[nasarsaddique] 24/2/2021 09:16

Could HSBC be our lender? Or at least one of them?

[sportbilly1976] 24/2/2021 08:17

Nice reaction first thing. Now this, due (based on comments) by cob tomorrow: Arthur Millholland, President and CEO, commented : "This loan will facilitate the completion of the Atomic acquisition which will be materially value enhancing to COPL, providing an immediate and growing revenue stream from day one. Crude oil prices have increased by 50% since we entered into the transaction thus enhancing the overall value of the proposition. Working with our new colleagues we plan to accelerate the production profile from the Atomic assets. This represents a step change in the strategic growth opportunities open to COPL and we look to the future with renewed confidence." Ryan Gaffney, CFO, added: "Approval of the Credit Facility by the Lender's investment committee is a key milestone to completing the Atomic acquisition. The quality of the assets we are acquiring has allowed the Company to attract the debt necessary to complete and we are working with the Lender to complete loan documentation in the coming week."