Cake Box Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 04/7/2023 07:58

Yeah, yet another cream cake (egg free obviously) in the face of the CEO. So along with last years dodgy accounts, the BoD's dumping shares before bad news, the data breach, etc., looks like greed and lack of any governance persists, a criminal prosecution is not a very good look at all......but seems like the market doesn't really care either?.

[disc0dave45] 26/6/2023 22:10

Lemonade47 deposits for new franchises at year end - do you know how many that will open this FY?They haven't (going back a few years) ever given a number for deposits and how that translates to new franchises in their FY.In FY03/21 they did say:-- Targeting 18-24 new franchise store openings in FY22 underpinned by record number of deposits from prospective franchiseesThey actually opened 31 for their "record number of deposits", so I'd guess the 47 deposits is not a record otherwise they'd say, ergo could be less than 31 and possibly less than 24. Going on the fact only 3 have opened since 31st March then that only out turns at about 15 or so new shops.

[disc0dave45] 26/6/2023 21:40

Lemonade

For FY03/20 LFL was +2%, for the latest FY it was +1%

As for new franchises, wouldn’t say 20 new franchises for FY03/23 indicates sustainable growth going on the trend would you?
FY03/22 31, FY03/21 24, FY03/20 20 (hit by covid), FY03/19 27

[lemonade311] 26/6/2023 19:06

Where do you see that LFL sales have halved since pre-covid?

That doesn't make much sense to me.

Also, franchisee growth actually has not stalled.

You can see here:

> Our pipeline of potential franchisees remains strong (with 47 deposits held at year end) and there is increasing ambition amongst existing franchisees, with many looking to expand their portfolios and own multiple sites where they can demonstrate their business acumen.

47 deposits looks to be on target to easily hit 20+ for this and next year.

A deposit is pretty likely to continue as it's £5k.

Also, their gross margins have gone up from 44% in 2016, to 48% in 2023.

If they were screwing their franchisees over then this would have gone up way more, because they would be charging more % on the sponge that they sell to franchisees which they have not.

[levinson1] 26/6/2023 16:31

I watched it and thought it was repetitive spin of a company ex growth.

[justiceforthemany] 26/6/2023 14:40

Watch the half hour Shares presentation last month before commenting.

[disc0dave45] 26/6/2023 13:34

VOX markets are paid by CBOX so always a positive spin, PR type questions and never anything tricky for them to answer, just all spin. Ask yourself this, Paul Hill constantly pumps these, has spare cash, calls a target price with significant upside, but hasn't bought any. Say no more.

[disc0dave45] 26/6/2023 13:29

LemonadeI'd be worried that LFL sales have halved compared to pre-covid, new franchisee growth rate has stalled dramatically (not surprising given their EBITDA has fallen over 30% and the BOD aren't exactly encouraging multiple shop ownership r et other by ramping up the franchise package costs).They've already said inflationary costs being managed.I do wish you well here, I still don't trust the CEO, so needs to stop spouting spin and deliver a long term strategy, one that's realistic not pie in the sky - 400 is complete tosh IMO, looks like UK saturation and local competition, how about EU or India, then I might be more interested.

[levinson1] 26/6/2023 13:26

Here come the sellers

[levinson1] 26/6/2023 13:07

But net profits down on last year!!!!! Always jam tomorrow!

[levinson1] 26/6/2023 12:49

Profits down and forecast has no substance. How does it suddenly day it wants to go to 400 units . Why not 700 or 300. Fed up with this stock. Always jam tomorrow Sure we'll have the same old line from Sukh that people have a birthday every day of the year. With mortgage rates soaring more likely they will get a Swiss roll from Tesco imo

[lemonade311] 26/6/2023 12:02

It's not about being right or wrong though levinson.

It's about risk/reward. The share price is 75% down from it's high.

Of course profits have collapsed, food inflation is 20% lol. Same for revenue, of course LFL revenue is down in real terms, people cut back on discretionary spending in high inflation times.

This is all stuff the market knows.

The question is whether this is just macroeconomic noise or if it's a deterioration in the business model long term.

I'm in CBOX at 6% of portfolio but I'm trying to look at it both ways and the points DiscoDave brings up are mostly not that worrying to me.

I'll have a look at the results soon though, haven't had time

[levinson1] 26/6/2023 08:11

I agree. I am not convinced either. Discodave is right

[levinson1] 26/6/2023 08:10

It's always jam tomorrow; not today

[disc0dave45] 26/6/2023 08:01

Sales slowing rapidly, Rev only up 5.6% with 11.5% more shops / kiosks. LFL revenue only up 1%, last year there was 31 new shops and only 20 this year.400 appears to be plucked from thin air IMO, their original target of 250 is still at least 2 years away.Looking at pre covid, they had a total of 133 shops and 12 kiosks, adj pbt was £3.8m. So about £26k adj pbt per asset, now it's only £24k, that's despite increasing franchisee charges by about 19%.That said the market appears to be happy with the numbers, I'm still not convinced.

[martywidget] 26/6/2023 07:55

Q&A with Cake Box CEO Sukh Chamdal & CFO Michael Botha
Jun 26, 2023

In this interview, Cake Box #CEO CBOX Sukh Chamdal & CFO Michael Botha take Vox through the company’s:

00:00 5 year growth since IPO & current demand picture
05:15 FY’23 financial highlights
09:00 Expansion plans
11:10 Progressive dividend, cashflow and future investments.
12:10 YTD’24 trading and outlook

[babbler] 26/6/2023 07:40

Yes they do have jam in some of their cakes. Quite tasty cakes too.

[disc0dave45] 26/6/2023 07:31

PaulHave you bought in here yet?From memory from your twitter account you are circa 40% cash so no reason not to invest and support your conviction here.

[levinson1] 26/6/2023 07:30

Promises, promises of ham tomorrow but fact is profits have fallen. Was this promised last year in the forecast !!

[justiceforthemany] 26/6/2023 07:27

OUTLOOK IS MOST IMPORTANT and is POSITIVE with growth to come

[levinson1] 26/6/2023 07:13

Profits down on last year. EBITDA fell

[justiceforthemany] 26/6/2023 07:08

Full year dividend up SIGNIFICANTLY to 8.25p
Outlook positive
Inflation and raw material costs falling
Margins expected to increase
New stores expected to open including across Scotland

[brummy_git] 26/6/2023 06:24

Tasty FY'23 numbers released today from CBOX - the UK’s ‘go to provider’ of luxury fresh cream celebration cakes.

All the details here.