Cake Box Share Discussion Threads

[levinson1] 12/12/2022 15:54

Because people will eat in more for celebrations and also note the price increases were announced as having been passed on to the franchisees.My hunch is franchisees will be buying these shares too because they will know how busy they are

[pogue] 12/12/2022 13:36

The cost of manufacture has also gone up significantly since £4.50 so profit margins must be effected.
I ask this question here a lot maybe you will answer it. Why so you think luxury cake sales will rise in a recession?

[levinson1] 12/12/2022 13:33

If they make £8m EBITDA , and as they have no material borrowings but do have freeholds, it must be one of the cheapest stocks around as they are on a PE at £1.18per share of roughly 5 !!!!!The company are almost certainly making more money than when the price was £4.50 per share.I can't buy enough of them

[levinson1] 12/12/2022 05:38

Cricklewood and Nw11

[pogue] 11/12/2022 20:29

Which stores were they?

[levinson1] 11/12/2022 20:28

Brilliant for CBOX that other bakers are running out of eggs and restricting productionWould be stunned if this share isn't £2 v soon. Can't wait for next trading update - passed 2 of their stores this weekend - packed and queues

[disc0dave45] 09/12/2022 11:12

Wasn't really about fragmentation but their income streams.Going on H1 this year with 11 new franchisee stores the "Franchise Package" element equates to circa £162.4K per new franchise, whereas H1 2021 it was £114.6k per new franchise (I'm assuming these "packages" only apply to new franchises not those already up and running). From my previous notes I had a figure of £120k per franchise so it looks like they've now increased this element by some margin (+40%), and this was the only segment where Rev per franchise actually increased:-Segmental income on an average per franchise basis for each element when comparing this H1 with last years H1 is: sponge -8.5%, food -9%, cream -8.4%, other goods no change, online -4.7%, franchise packages +40%.

[bertiebingo] 09/12/2022 07:14

It's probably ok if the franchisees are fragmented. Dominos had an issue when a couple of franchisees owned 40% of the total. Good to have the new CFO from Dominos.

[sid_b] 08/12/2022 22:48

Future growth will be driven by expansion in new Territories in the UK and later abroad.

[disc0dave45] 08/12/2022 21:28

Hi PaulWould you mind taking a look at my post 219 and perhaps you could offer an opinion?. I'm not convinced future growth by simply increasing the cost of franchise packages is sustainable. Possibly this is only a short term remediation due to current inflationary input costs but is it?.

[brummy_git] 07/12/2022 09:26

If you’re looking for a resilient, capital-lite brand, trading on a 11x PE & paying a 4.3% dividend yield - then Cake Box fits the bill.

Find out here from CEO Sukh Chamdal & acting CFO Martin Blair, what's behind the positive FY23 outlook.

www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_qa-with-cake-box-ceosukh-chamdalacting-activity-7006185915949678592-cXVT?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

[pogue] 22/11/2022 12:20

Who are you asking? No one here has mentioned putting on a short.

[whatisaname] 22/11/2022 10:11

So where did you place your short ? Very risky shorting a all ready bashed down stock good luck though

[brummy_git] 19/11/2022 11:49

Justin Waite & I of Vox Markets talked about Cake Box here yesterday (starts 32:20)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaBY_g5g1oI&t=2206s

[pogue] 19/11/2022 10:46

Doing very well lately thanks very much couple of baggers in the last month.

[sid_b] 19/11/2022 10:11

Good luck with short-term trading Pogue :)

[pogue] 19/11/2022 09:10

Long term we are all dead.
We are at the start of a long bad run for retail. I like the company even had some shares when they were rising but don't see why I shouldn't wait till the recession end is in sight before buying back? Plenty of other companies that are rising in other sectors that I can make money on short term.

[sid_b] 19/11/2022 08:37

To those with a bear case for CBOX, IMHO, you are taking a very short-term view. Long term, they have a -
simple business (easy to run by avg executives),
profitable business that is very scalable,
capital-light model i.e. cheap to scale,
no large competitor i.e. better margins through economies of scale,
and a very long runway (next US after UK).

[pogue] 18/11/2022 16:54

Sales of cakes are going to grow and new franchisees will be breaking the door down with unborrowed money, as the cost of borrowing is not cheap, to get a franchise as we head into a massive recession where people are struggling to afford to heat their homes. Manufacturing costs must be at all time highs for the core business of making cake bases as energy and wheat prices are very high. Something not right there all of retail is suffering but a luxury cakes business is thriving?
I will continue to watch this miracle company rather than invest just now, it looks like Wile E. Coyote going off a cliff to me.
Good luck investors.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 18/11/2022 16:37

I have to agree justice.
I think the curve balls are behind cbox now.
Sensible business model.
It's the 7% divi that is the icing on the cake. I'm pretty sure the shares will be bought up and cbox will be treated as a decent growing co. On a divi yield of 3.5%..
Meaning the share price ought to double from here without much effort.

[disc0dave45] 18/11/2022 14:50

I'm in two minds tbh. Like the business model too but looking at the latest income breakdown the only element that had growth was the "franchise packages" (+40%/franchise, based on new franchises in the reporting period v H1 2021).So will such an increase be sustainable?, plus I'm uncertain that they will hit forecasts, looks a big ask to me but then the house broker should know more about what's going on!.Will keep watching but it is tempting :)

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 15/11/2022 13:49

Bought some today.
Always liked the business. Glad to see issues in the rear view mirror and current share price gives a fantastic margin of safety.

And decent director purchase yesterday.

[babbler] 14/11/2022 08:07

I think you will find that's better than anticipated hence the rise. They have surprised to the upside.

[brummy_git] 14/11/2022 08:00

Encouraging progress being made at CBOX - the UK’s ‘go to provider’ of specialty, fresh cream cakes.

Find out all the news here.

www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_cbox-activity-6997817197951602688-sZwL?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop