Cake Box Share Discussion Threads

[pogue] 13/4/2022 12:51

Belgian bakers and pastry chefs are struggling with fluor and power costs rising. Really cannot see how Cake Box are immune to this. If you cant make money making bread or pastries in Belgium things are tough.



.....Szalies has already had to let go of one of his team and now has a single pastry chef helping him across his two workshops.

Albert Denoncin, co-president of the Belgian Bakery and Pastry Confederation, has warned that the problem could be about to get even worse.

“We must not forget that Ukraine is the granary of Europe, and with what is happening at the moment, there is nothing more coming out of Ukraine,” he said.

“This means that tomorrow we could see the price of flour quadruple, which wouldn't surprise us, given the current circumstances.”

For Belgium’s 3,500 bakeries and pastry shops, wheat is not the only thing that is getting more expensive.

Energy prices have skyrocketed and are set to increase even more during 2022 as Europe slashes the amount of natural gas it imports from Russia and oil prices rise.

"Last year we were paying 3,000 euros a month for electricity and we've just received an adjustment of 9,000 euros,” he said.

“So I'll let you imagine, the worst is yet to come. Next year, how much we will pay, I have no idea.”

[pogue] 13/4/2022 12:19

Do you expect them to increase prices due to the rise in flour costs or swallow the cost?
Regards birthday cakes being non luxury there are people who cannot pay their fuel bills I suggest you have to redefine your view of essential and luxury. Once inflation really starts going things become a lot more black and white, I am assuming you did not live in the 70s or 80s?

[pogue] 13/4/2022 08:24

Can anyone explain how a luxury retail business can do well in a high inflation environment? I lived through high inflation when I was young and my experience is people stop spending on anything not essential and prices of goods keep rising whilst wages lag by a long way and strikes are common. I would add the main income for CBOX is selling sponge to their franchisees and wheat is going to skyrocket in price going forward so will margins be cut or will they just attempt to pass onto the consumer the price hikes?
Sensible answers please.

[justiceforthemany] 12/4/2022 21:38

Looks good value here. Low P/E and good balance sheet. Growth stock.

[robinnicolson] 05/4/2022 11:48

There is an interesting two-page piece on Cake Box in the latest newsletter from Howay Investments. They have been buying into the share price weakness:

[saurish] 14/3/2022 17:01

Im sure the company will manage with high margins and room to increase prices. However, one thing is for sure YOUR 60p DREAM IS SHATTERED. Upwards and onwards to 300p

[onjohn] 14/3/2022 09:26

will price of cakes increase due to wheat

[pogue] 14/3/2022 09:21

Looking like they have past the bottom. Question for anyone who has more knowledge of the share than me before I buy back how much of their costs are based around wheat for the sponges? I expect the lack of Ukrainian, and sanctioned Russian, wheat is going to have a similar effect as the rise in oil costs. Will they be able to pass on the increased food costs in other commodities to the customers? This year is going to be all about companies with low debt, due to rising interest rates, and ability to pass on price rises from basic ingredients and transport, and latterly labour, to customers so food retail could be an issue. Happy to be proven wrong...

[brummy_git] 14/3/2022 08:27

Reassuring trading update today from Cake Box

Find out all the news & latest valuation here.

www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_cbox-cbox-activity-6909049884310392832-bLBk

[saurish] 05/3/2022 13:23

Recent Management meet Update from Blackswan Shareshttps://blackswanshares.substack.com/p/doubled-down-on-cbox?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=direct

[luckymouse] 23/2/2022 14:46

Well a growth stock at top of range - which has minor audit errors revealed - & it happens to coincide with a market top - that's basically a short attack - either deliberate or just panned out that way (& perhaps tarred with P.Valerie sentiment - rightly or wrongly). As such, your correct to consider position with caution - but everythings tradable & this could be due a relief rally off that key level. They also had a website hack, implying not fraud - simply that they're better at making cakes than governance lol - & that could be the judgement call. Always play it open minded.
These strike me as newbie flags more than than red flags - but not a kind market to anything at the moment except a handful of defensives. Someone is buying to the sound of cannons here, & we'll find out when better conditions return, if they are right.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 23/2/2022 14:35

Looks like buying since the big trades to me. Seller cleared IMO.
Great. Onward sand upwards.
People be eating cakes :)

[sphere25] 23/2/2022 14:26

Oooerr...

This one is tricky. Ordinarily I would have a go here for a very quick one. XLM and REVB are seeing interesting exchanges right now too, had a go in both (WITH STOPS, BETTER ADD THIS) but this looks like someone is panic selling here and I can't be sure bad news is on the way too.

Positive is that there is a buyer or buyers sat at 150p so a possible short term floor and bounce BUT...

No...

I can't do it ha

Leave it to others. Maybe if you're really nimble as a short term trader or you absolutely have conviction in the long term story and have done alot of research.

It might be Canaccord lobbing. They had 4.78m so it isn't a full clearout, assuming it is them and that they want to lob the lot.

Clearly the market watches to see if 150p holds now with buyers sat there. That dump is an uneasy one though.

Anywho, there is my two pennies worth. I will continue to watch to see how events unfold here but someone has played it safe (though many will disagree and that is what makes a market!) with the selling.

Good luck to all holders.

All imo
DYOR

[luckymouse] 23/2/2022 14:24

Someone's just covered or had a first bite I see - start of the buy zone (which may potentially extend to 120 or 100)
Just clipped a Fib & diagonal so some swing traders may come in here
Interesting reading the £6 bid panic ramps - you lot don't do TA then I presume - instead trying to morph/predict any one of a 1000 random scenarios into the rigid box of one's own hopeful logic - doesn't work that way - read Weinstein - this cracked in December

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 23/2/2022 14:14

hello. Perky. Seller cleared?
Some big trades gone through today.

[km18] 14/2/2022 17:22

...from earlier in Q4 2021... price & valuation looks a lot different, business case is still the same & solid looking forward....

Cake Box Holdings today issued a HY trading update. Performance has been strong across the Groups stores and online delivery channel. Revenues were up 91% on H1 20 to £16.4m, suggesting FY22 revenues will approach the £35m area compared to FY21 £21.9m, a 70%+ gain. The Group opened 20 new franchise stores in the period (excluding kiosk openings), with the total number of stores at 30 September 2021 being 174 (H1 2020: 139). The appeal of the Group's franchise proposition is reflected in the current pipeline of new potential franchisees, with 62 holding deposits held at period end. Expansion and growth is the name of the game here....from WealthOracleAM

[onjohn] 12/2/2022 15:43

There is no suggestion of sticky fingers in the cookie jar

[m_kerr] 12/2/2022 13:55

if you can't trust the executives, I don't see how you can invest here. where they find errors / illegal non disclosures or inconsistencies, there will probably be more on the way. leopards don't tend to change their spots.

[hatfullofsky] 11/2/2022 23:44

Why not wait

[nillparekh] 11/2/2022 22:12

Can't buy cakebox shares on etoro can you recommend any other platform to buy cbox shares please

[saurish] 11/2/2022 18:37

Well I have faith in management and hopefully it'll be restored. However, it's a tough hold and as you rightly pointed out no institution seems to be stepping in to stem this flow. Until the faith is restored, I'm keeping my trust in forecasts which is for EPS 14.3p for 2022 putting it at PE 14. And with an average growth of 13% forecasted going forward, if the faith is restored this could prove to be a good opportunity to get in and in my case hold! IMHO DYOR

[sphere25] 11/2/2022 15:27

Collapsing again.

If it is moving like this and nobody is stepping in the way, it isn't just retail investors is it. An institution or two could easily just stick a big order in and mop everything up here and at higher price points. Very easily done to clear out this volume of selling.

Nobody is stepping in the way though, which is a very concerning sign. I am not getting in the way of that train, get absolutely splattered.

It is just a punt this now with the directors lobbing like they have too. Boils down to faith in them being honest.

IF someone mops up big, it will have a technical bounce but beyond that...

Place your bets.

An interesting watch so I will keep tabs. You don't learn as much from the good uns I tells thee!

All imo
DYOR